William Ruto: The wild card in 2007?

Coming from the country’s largest single voter bloc, the Rift Valley Province, William Ruto is clearly the man to watch in this year’s presidential contest; the question being:

• Can he outsmart retired president Moi to “own” Rift Valley Vote
• Does he have what it takes to wrest the ODM ticket
• What are the chances of him striking a deal with Kibaki
• Who will be the casualties of Ruto phenomenon in the RVP
  

In politics, they say, a day can be a lifetime. In the dynamic world of politics, things can change so fast that careers are created and others destroyed within a short span of time. The adage holds very true in the case of William Samoei Ruto, who only a year ago was considered a political novice but has, in recent months, somehow managed to reconfigure himself into one of the most important political players in the forthcoming presidential race.

The more established politicians especially from the Rift Valley Province who once dismissed Ruto as a fly-by-night-single-day-political-wonder-boy have been forced to eat back their words upon realization that the Ruto phenomenon is here to stay.

Today Ruto is the single most-and potentially most influential-politician in the populous Rift Valley Province. As if by magic, Ruto has managed to eclipse the larger-than-life image and influence that was once wielded by former President Daniel arap Moi in the province of close to 3 million votes.

By so doing, Ruto is today in a position to become the king maker not just in the Rift Valley but possibly even at the national level. And as this happens, some of the politicians from the Rift Valley who had hitherto never seen eye to eye with Ruto are today trying to be associated with him in hope that this will help them recapture their parliamentary seats.

There is no doubt too that many politicians from the Rift Valley Province will become casualties of the Ruto phenomenon if they fail to read the writing on the wall and act accordingly. Agriculture Minister Kipruto arap Kirwa is likely to be the biggest victim of the Ruto phenomenon and may even lose the Cherangany parliamentary seat if the Ruto tide continues unabated. So what factors have made Ruto into the political colossus that he is today?

A man who never misses an opportunity
Political analysts have described him as a politician who has never missed an opportunity to see an opportunity-and seize it. It is a description shared with many who have known the 41-year old Ruto at various stages in his relatively short but eventful career.

Talking of speed in noting and grabbing opportunities the soonest they appear on the horizon, who could have guessed that Ruto could have been that quick in positioning himself to fill a political vacuum in the Rift valley so soon after his very mentor, retired president Moi vacated State House?

And though at the very first his ambitions were taken, at worst, as a joke and at best, a proxy candidate for one of the ODM luminaries, at the moment many are persuaded that Ruto is indeed a factor in his own right and he will be in a position to make or break political careers.

Immediately Moi made his exit as Kenya’s president in 2003, Ruto saw and took maximum advantage of three realities of Kenyan politics.

One, that the country’s politics is seriously fragmented into regional/tribal blocs.

Secondly, that at one time or the other there is usually a father figure in command of any large bloc vote.

And three, that such a bloc seriously counts if there is a home boy to stake a claim to leadership once the father figure leaves the scene.

In his case, Moi absence from State House had created a vacuum in the Rift Valley. But most important for Ruto-and what many others could not immediately realize-Moi would not count much in Rift Valley politics-and the country in general- if his name was not in the ballot.

With that far sight, Ruto positioned himself for plan A and B. In plan A, he would try to woo Moi to back him as the home-boy going for big things in the capital. But Moi had other political plans and backing Ruto for the top job was not one of them. So Ruto positioned himself for plan B: take on his former boss and benefit from Moi fatigue in the Rift Valley.

For plan B to succeed-and looks like it is-Ruto saw two other factors not many people could at the time. That old age and the fast changing dynamics of Kenyan politics would make Moi an increasingly irrelevant factor on the national scene. Secondly, and equally important, an overwhelming number of future voters in the Rift Valley and the country would have a dis-connect with Moi come 2007 and beyond. Moi became president in 1978. Children born in that year will be 29-years old in this election and may have little, if anything, to relate nostalgically with the Moi era.

Armed with such home truths, there was no stopping for Ruto, an alleged descendant of the legendary Nandi chief and freedom fighter Koitalel arap Samoei.

But seizing the opportunity is not exactly the same as getting the prize. Inevitably, Ruto will have to steel himself to cross every section of the journey if he is to be the next occupant of State House.

The first hurdle is to clinch the ODM ticket, and that is assuming ODM stays as one united outfit to the end.

When he declared his candidacy in August last year, many did not take him that serious. Three schools of thought emerged at the time. One, that Ruto was merely placing himself strategically for a spoil in ODM by pretending to “own” a bloc vote he could bring to the table.

The second line and the most popular was that the idea to contest was actually not his own but that of ODM de facto leader, Raila Odinga. The thinking was solidified when Raila actually appeared at Ruto’s “crowning” as a Kalenjin elder last September and publicly stated that he is the one who had asked Ruto to contest. It later turned out that there had not been any prior consultations on the matter, an issue that has left Ruto with a bitter taste in the mouth to this day.

The third school of thought was that by declaring himself a presidential candidate, Ruto cunningly aimed at adding political weight to his name and use his elevated stature to stave off the corruption allegations leveled against him.

In case the push came to shove and he was at the receiving end of the law, as a presidential candidate he could always turn tables by shouting martyr.

Playing godfather to Moi orphans
If there is one thing that really helped Ruto elevate himself to the level he is today, it has to be his fight for the rights of the so-called Moi orphans. When the Kibaki government started to prune some of the remnants of the Moi regime from public service jobs, Ruto saw an opportunity to position himself as the defender of ‘the victimized members of the Kalenjin community’.

While other Rift Valley politicians such as cabinet minister Kipruto arap Kirwa stayed on the sidelines on the thorny issue of Moi’s people ‘being finished’ by the Kibaki government, Ruto took the bull by the horns. He shouted loudest in defense of ‘his people’ and by so doing endeared himself as the defender of the ‘defenseless’.

As Ruto’s star continued to shine, that of other Rift Valley politicians such as Kirwa started dimming almost at the same speed. Ruto’s populist approach to politics resonated well with both high and low. Thus, almost over night, Ruto had transformed himself from a mere member of parliament to the patron saint of the Moi orphans.

This gave him the numbers (votes) he needed to position himself well which in turn attracted moral, material and other forms of backing from prominent members of the Moi orphans club who were looking for someone to defend their interests now that Moi was no longer in power.

Today any member of the Moi orphans club who wants to make an entry to parliament has no choice but to sing the Ruto song. Among those who have already signed up in the Ruto camp include former Head of Civil Service Dr Sally Kosgei who is eyeing the Aldai parliamentary seat. Others such as former aide to Moi, Joshua Kulei are also said to be sympathetic to Ruto and could be supporting him materially.

What next for Ruto?
It is apparent that Ruto has indeed transformed himself into a big league player and will be the man many camps will want in their midst as the elections near. Politics is a dynamic business and the fact that Ruto is today committed to ODM may not mean much if he gets a better offer from president Kibaki.

And in the likelihood of ODM breaking up into competing factions, each group will want to have Ruto in order to bag the crucial Rift Valley vote. Whichever camp he chooses to work with will definitely have an upper hand in the elections and may as well be the winning camp barring some dramatic political realignments at the last minute.

RUTO AT A GLANCE

What works for him

• He is aggressive
• He is quite wealthy
• Relatively young and energetic
• He is eloquent
• Being a Nandi gives him the benefit of numbers among the Kalenjin
• Has the support of Moi ‘orphans’ with their deep pockets
  

What works against him

• Viewed by others as arrogant, selfish and thoroughly Machiavellian in his politics
• Has to deal with the tag and claims of having amassed his wealth corruptly
• Is viewed by others as inexperienced
• His past links to the infamous YK ’92 may come back to haunt him
• Internal differences between the Nandi, Kipsigis, Tugen, Keiyo and other members of the Kalenjin community may negatively impact on him
• His stance against Moi may be used by his detractors to undermine him

William Ruto: Just who is this man Ruto?

Born William Kipchirchir Samoei arap Ruto in 1966, the man who wants to be Kenya’s president hails from Sambu village of Kamagut location of Uasin Gishu district.

He began schooling at the Sambut primary school before joining Eldoret’s Wareng Secondary School where he wrote hi ‘O’ level examinations in 1984.

He was admitted to Kapabet Boys High School for his Advanced Level in 1985-86.he was admitted to the University of Nairobi in 1987 for a first degree course in general sciences.

At University, Ruto a staunch African Inland Church (AIC) member was elected the leader of the University Christian Union choir. That gave him the very first opportunity to meet his mentor, retired President Moi, as the choir was occasionally called upon to entertain the Head of State.

Close friends say it was exposure to the glamour of State House in those formative days that inspired the young man to want to be president one day, some day.

While in college, Moi would request Ruto to accompany him in trips overseas. The first such trip was to Indonesia. Ruto talks about it with relish to this day.

On leaving college and having ‘tasted’ proximity to power, there was no turning back even as Ruto was hired as a temporary teacher at first at Sirgoi secondary school and later at Kamagut secondary, both in the North Rift.

He quit teaching and registered a business company in Nairobi ostensibly to use it as a bridge to get where he wanted-in the world of politics and big money. At the same time he found while away as a masters’ degree student at Chiromo while he marked time to get where he wanted.

In early 1990s, he established a company, African Venture Tours and Hotels, which gave him the opportunity to meet his like-minded. They included Cyrus Jirongo, the late Victor Kebenei, Sammy Kogo Boit and Sam Nyamweya. Others were the late Pyman Onyango and Lazarus Amayo. The group finally introduced him to the all important contacts, the Moi siblings Gideon and June. By now he was halfway where he wanted to be.

Come 1992 election, Ruto naturally found himself in the core team that founded the Kanu campaign machine, the Youth for Kanu ’92. The YK ’92 tale about big money, fast riches, and much power is well documented. However, the honeymoon did not last long.

As soon as Kanu was back in power, Ruto and indeed, the entire YK ’92 fraternity were punted to outer edges of power and privilege. But by 1997 election, Ruto & co. had their revenge when they made their debut to parliament as “independents” within Kanu.

Then he teamed up with Kipruto Kirwa of Cherangany constituency, John Sambu of Mosop and Cyrus Jirongo of Lugari to become the thorn-in-the-flesh within Kanu.

But somehow, along the way in year 2000, they changed tune to become chief defenders of their faith.

Ruto was subsequently appointed Assistant Minister for Provincial Administration and Internal Security and made history in being the only assistant minister allowed to attend cabinet meetings.

He quickly eclipsed power broker, Mark Too, and soon became Moi’s point-man in selling Project Uhuru in Rift Valley province. By then he had been promoted to a full minister and posted to the Home Affairs office.

In 2003 Kanu was ousted from power, Ruto stuck with Uhuru and Moi to ward off challenge for Kanu leadership from a faction led by Keiyo South MP, Nicholas Biwott.

The tables turned only when he and Uhuru differed with Moi over Kanu associating with the new kid on the block, ODM-Kenya.

Dan Kipsang

MUTAVA MUSYIMI FOR PRESIDENT!

After been the secretary general of the National Council of Churches of Kenya (NCCK) since 1994, Rev. Mutava Musyimi has opted to retire early from the once fiery religious lobby group. He has however kept mum of his next move until his successor is selected and installed in office in July this year.

It is an open secret that he is geared to face it out with ODM presidential aspirant Joseph Nyagah for the Gachoka parliamentary seat in Embu. Unsympathetic to the course of ODM, it is highly likely he will run on a government friendly ticket.

Musyimi the current chairman of the Kibaki select National Anti-Corruption Steering Committee was once touted in 2002 as an opposition compromise candidate to face it out with Moi. He was the chairman of the Ufungamano initiative on constitutional reforms before it merged with the KANU/NDP government led Prof Yash Pal Ghai commission which later culminated to the Bomas process. He scores highly on integrity, sober judgment, leadership skills in comparison to the current hoodlum of incumbent and wannabe presidents.

Unfortunately, just like another ideal presidential material, Nobel Laureate Prof. Wangari Maathai, he comes from the wrong place at this point of Kenya politics. He is also a novice in hard politics, his religious inclinations though tolerant and accommodative may also cause riots at some quarters. His close association with the powers that be since 2002 may not endear him well in some regions. Once he announces his candidature, he is the man that Kenya needs at this point in time.

MUTAVA MUSYIMI FOR PRESIDENT?

Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE): There is room for improvement

Within the last two months the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) index has dropped from 200 points to its current level of 5,180. This has wiped over Shs 20 billion of investors money, but Kenyans are not worried since most of these investors and shareholders are not aware that there are Shs 206 billion poorer!

This is a fairly huge fall in such a short time. Traditional investors like insurance companies, fund managers of pension trusts, banks and individuals have taken the drop gracefully sighting normal market correction. Some are saying that certain major players had purposely propped up the share prices in order to dampen their shares to unsuspecting new comers in the game.

Raila Odinga also added his concerns by saying that he saw the hands of unscrupulous players with bad money meddling in the stock exchange. Whatever all this means the Capital Market Authority has to come up with a researched explanation now and whenever such a thing happens.

The NSE is still a very small institution in comparison to the size of the Kenyan economy. This is why whatever happens at the stock exchange whether a rise or a fall is hardly felt by Kenyans. At the moment the country’s GDP, that is its wealth, is in excess of Shs 1.4 trillion. The capitalisation of all the companies listed in the NSE has been about Shs 88 billion two months ago but it is now Shs 69 billion. This is a mere six percent of the country’s GDP. This clearly reflects that the performance of companies listed in the NSE affecting the country is like the tail wagging of a dog.

The current government like the Moi regime has not encouraged the expansion of the NSE by selling most of the state-owned companies such as Kenya Pipeline, Nzoia Sugar, Sony Sugar, National bank etc. There are over 75 state owned companies and quasi-government institutions that can competently be run by the private sector through the larger share ownership in the NSE. By listing these non-strategic companies, the government would raise billions of shillings and use it to do what governments are supposed to do; that is improving the infrastructure and the welfare of its citizens.

At the moment the Nairobi Stock Exchange has no impact at all on the management of the economy. We are not therefore able to gauge the performance of the economy and prudent allocation of resources. When a government is managing over 70 parastatals, it is not clear if these institutions are efficient and benefit Kenyans.

For example we are not sure whether the East African Portland Cement or the National Bank of Kenya board of directors are giving their loyalty to prudent business ethics or to the masters that have appointed them as directors.

It is about time that we speed up the privatization of these companies and stop using them as a tool to buy loyalty of the appointees. It is becoming rather expensive for Kenyans to see state-owned companies having endless wars with ministers in the control of different aspects of their operations.

The Nairobi Stock Exchange should also reduce bureaucracy that makes it difficult for privately owned companies to be listed.

The Capital Market Authority must also put its house in order. What happened to Francis Thuo and partners Brokers is quite disturbing. Telling investors that their shares can be sold without their knowledge is sheer incompetence and against the rules and regulations governing the operations of brokers. For example when shares of an investor are sold: why should the cheque be written in the broker’s name? the cheque must be to the investor and posted to his known address. When CDSC statements are posted directly to the shareholder it makes it possible to compare the two statements; the brokers and the CDSC.

In this way one can detect any discrepancies. If the NSE were to pay the proceeds of any shares sold on behalf of the investor directly, it would reduce the temptation of fraud. The NSE has tried and I must say have done a commendable job but there is a lot of room for improvement.

Joe Donde.

Good boys too like being big men

Somebody predicted some time back that the African Big Man syndrome would go out of fashion when mtukufu Rais Moi retired. Well, he was wrong. True, when Emilio occupied the Big House on the Hill he did not follow the manual Mtukufu and Uhuru’s dad before him had used to shut up Kenyans with big mouths.

But that is only perhaps because Emilio is a good man (oh, alright, he uses the P word now and then, but an old is allowed to use the P word now and then). Alternatively, Emilio did not follow the manual because he did not find it, Mtukufu having taken it away with him to Kabarak as a memento or misplaced it as he hurriedly vacated to let his successor in.

But then everybody is not as good as Emilio. Look at our western neighbour for instance. Yoweri Museveni was the darling of our foreign masters because he said he will never be a Big Man. Of course he was leading them on because he is a Big Man. Of course he was leading them on because he is a Big Man now and Ugandans are not going to do a thing about it.

Abyssinian Meles Zenawi said he would be a good boy but good boys also like being Big Men and now he is one.

And of course you don’t want to hear about naughty old comrade Bob Mugabe. A little hanky panky with his beautiful secretary, the amazing Grace and before he knew it she was his wife. She asked him to allow her turn Zimbabwe into a banana republic which he did and now poor Zim is a real basket case.

Both Bob and Grace are very, very happy but the people of Zimbabwe are not happy anymore because old Bob is not only a banana farmer but has gone bananas, like all Big Men eventually do. He’s gone completely berserk and is breaking the bones of Zimbabweans with big mouths, like Morgan Tsvangirai’s. by the way have you noticed how much Thabo Mbeki of Azania has been fighting the temptation to become a Big Man? I don’t think South Africans want a banana republic. But you never know.

Sir Charles comes hurtling down

When the gods want to humble or destroy a mortal, a sage once philosophized, they first make him proud. When mtukufu Rais Moi was preparing the humbling of Sir Charles, the Duke of Kabeteshire, he puffed him up, made him think he was a co-president, pumped him up like a balloon and then prick! The Duke came hurtling down from the lofty firmament and, like Humpty Dumpty, he had a mighty great fall.

But, thank heavens, he found humility for only recently Mugane was espied at Uhuru Park, humbly seated among the holloi polloi, the wretched of the earth he once despised to watch a presidential function from the sidelines. Then he was seen the other day dancing Mugithi with the rabble, the commoners.

Oh, I know, I must sound like am gloating over the changed fortunes of Sir Charles. Well, may be I am, but I was also thinking about just how sorely scandalized Sir Charles must be by Uncle Mood’s prison reforms. When he was a mighty Attorney General he once famously said that prisons are not luxury hotels where criminals go to be pampered. Now, a wiser saying hath no other man uttered.

Uncle moody has no business turning jail houses into five star sojourns for criminals. They don’t even hang sadistic cop killers anymore because, in Maina Kiai’s parlance, they have human rights. Well, cops have human rights too, Maina Kiai. And so did old Saddam but the Iraqis hang him by the neck till he was dead.

Now go ye drink and drive!

Alcoblow will be brought back on our roads soon. Daudi Kyalo, the police traffic commandant says that the gizmo will be brought back whether alkies like it or not because it was made to be used on the roads. Agreed. It should be brought back and used on the roads otherwise there was no use of making it in the first place, was there?

Daudi has given Kenyan drivers who want to drink and drive a six month grace period during which they can drink-drive with abandon, kill themselves if they must and take with them any innocent poor sod in their drunken self annihilation. The gadget, if you recall, was withdrawn because it had been introduced by Chris Murungaru without giving those who imbibe time to adjust to the blasted thing being thrust in their faces for them to blow into. I think six months is the amount of time one needs to prepare for such a traumatic experience.

So the drinkers felt hard done by and went to court and told the judge that somebody had introduced a gadget to stop them drinking and driving which was a violation of their human rights. “You can’t do that” the judge said, surprised that somebody had even thought of doing such a thing. “People are allowed to drink in this country. In fact I drink a lot myself sometimes. If you recall, Mtukufu Rais Moi, when he was president, recommended that Kenyans should drink milk and since then I have drunk a lot of it.”

There is no law, he further observed, against drinking other stuff like juice or water, in fact it was quite healthy to do so.

“And did somebody tell you that you are not allowed to drive? Now, I have never heard of such arrant nonsense? I drive all the time myself, in fact, I even have a driving license. Now go ye drink and drive.” They went and drunk, drove and some killed themselves and others. But Alcoblow returns in six months.

The man and his car

When it comes to personal style and substance, Raila Amolo Odinga is second to none. First it was a glitzy wedding ceremony for his daughter where he imported a state of the art jaguar and gave to her as a wedding gift.

This time around, Raila has decided to give himself a present too. And what better can a man give himself than the latest edition of the coveted American motor vehicle Hummer? It is a car that is the preserve of the rich and famous even in the opulent west.

The price? Well, those in the know say it can be somewhere in the region of half a million US dollars, around Kshs 35 million upwards. (This figure has been disputed and new estimates value it at Kshs 7 million). That is no small money anywhere in the world, least of all Kenya. Raila later clarified that the hummer was a gift from friends of ODM in the USA to help ODM hammer Kibaki out of power.

But again, that may be mere pocket change for Raila, a man today reputed to have become one of the richest politicians in the country within a relatively short span of time….

And to think that his late father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and even Raila himself once upon a time toyed with the idea of communism and socialism… Hail the little pleasures of capitalism and free market and perish any thoughts to the contrary.

Kiruri Kamau

Kalonzo Musyoka: Could he be the next president?

As Kalonzo Musyoka engages high gear in his presidential campaign, questions linger:

- can he outsmart Raila Odinga in ODM

- What chances does he have to beat the incumbent President Mwai Kibaki

- Could he be rehearsing for 2012?

When he first contested for a parliamentary seat twenty four years ago, a local newspaper described him as “a little known Nairobi lawyer at best and a non-starter at worst.” The same could have been said in regard to his presidential ambitions five years ago when he first claimed stake in presidential nominations of then ruling party Kanu.

Today, as he seeks to be president on the opposition ODM-K ticket, only a person living in another country would refer to him as little known or a non-starter, for that matter. That Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka has since transformed into a serious presidential contender is no longer debatable.

What may be debatable today is how effectively he can mount and sustain an aggressive campaign to surmount other equally formidable contenders for the ultimate political prize in the country; the presidency.

Nevertheless, there is absolutely no doubt that Kalonzo has been causing more than his fair share of political ripples at the highest levels of the country’s political leadership.

Only last week, his minders were busy telling whoever cared to listen that Kalonzo is such a political threat that no lesser person than First Lady Lucy kibaki has found time to occasionally throw a jab at candidate Kalonzo which should confirm that he is the most potent threat to Kibaki in 2007. It is the same reasoning is offered every time Kalonzo’s rival within ODM, Raila Odinga, swings a veiled diatribe at the former.

On Tuesday last week the First lady issued a press statement in which she cautioned Kalonzo to refrain from attacking President Kibaki as “he had done nothing for his Mwingi North constituency in the 24 years he has been in parliament.”

It was in the same week when Raila sarcastically stated that “Mr. Steadman does not vote in Kenya” in reference to poll results by the Steadman research group which have consistently named Kalonzo the most popular candidate after the incumbent President Kibaki.

So what makes Kalonzo tick? Rather what is the trick that has made him such an important player in the presidential race, the man to beat in a relatively short period of just five years?

First is his good timing and having had the knack to make the right decision at the right time. Friend and foe agree that the best political decision Kalonzo ever made was to part ways with the then President Moi just before the 2002 election.

Kalonzo was in the group that walked out on Moi in Kanu when the then president insisted on imposing Uhuru Kenyatta as Kanu’s presidential nominee in that years’ election.

Had Kalonzo stuck in Kanu at a time when every politician worth his salt was bolting, chances are that today he would be a political nonentity and not the towering politician he has curved himself into.

Nevertheless Kalonzo may have placed himself in a strategic position for the big race but the tough job for him still lies ahead. And what happened within the next few months will be definitive in determining whether there will be President Kalonzo Musyoka come January 2008 or just Hon Kalonzo Musyoka, MP for Mwingi North.

Can Kalonzo outfox Raila Odinga in ODM?

As the clock ticks towards the 2007 general elections, one of the biggest challenges for Kalonzo will be figuring out how to deal with and ultimately tame the biggest and most immediate threat to his presidential bid in the form of the formidable Langata MP Raila Odinga.

Although on the surface the two give the impression that they are “best of friends”, it is clear that theirs is the kind of friendship where you do not need enemies as long as you have each other.

Between the two, Raila is the more experienced political operator having honed his skills in the trenches of political battles in the 80s. In a no-holds-barred fight, analysts believe that Raila has the capacity to leave Kalonzo thoroughly bruised politically if not vanquish him completely, never mind whether he uses a combination of fair and unfair means, orthodox and unorthodox tactics.

There is no doubt that Raila is famed for being a strategic and ruthlessly Machiavellian political bruiser. Recall how he dealt a fatal blow to Moi’s ambitions of installing Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor by converting his NDP-which had then joined up with Kanu-into a Trojan horse that ultimately brought down the ruling party?

Nevertheless, even the best of political fighters have their Achilles heel. In the case of Raila, he has over-exposed himself as a constant fighter and for this reason not many politicians outside his immediate sphere of influence find much to trust in him.

Kalonzo, on the other hand, has cultivated the image of a gentleman who can be trusted to keep his end of the bargain. This perception may or may not be true but it might come in handy for Kalonzo when it comes to the time for hard bargaining and horse-trading in ODM party. The trickiest issue however will be who among the two competitors has the upper hand in terms of controlling the party’s levers of power.

It is significant to note that the registered chairman of ODM-Kenya is one Daniel Maanzo, a city lawyer closely associated with the Kalonzo camp. What this means is that should push come to shove in ODM, Kalonzo may have the advantage of being close to the party chairman.

As cabinet minister Charity Ngilu has shown, having people closely allied to you take strategic positions in a party works like magic. Little wonder Ngilu’s powerful detractors in the Kibaki government have been unable to wrest Narc party from her despite having the government system on their side. Ngilu’s little trick? She had the party packed with her allies at its registration when everyone else was busy elsewhere.

Were a similar scenario to arise in ODM, chances are that Kalonzo could easily walk away with ODM-Kenya leaving Raila and those allied to him smarting to no avail. That the party chairman adopted Hnry Kosgey as chairman and Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o as secretary general with Larry Gumbe as interim executive director for political convenience without necessarily officially registering party officials, would have the upper hand.

Kalonzo versus Kibaki
Were Kalonzo to emerge, by some magical formula, the undisputed ODM presidential candidate, it would give him enough firepower to give President Kibaki not just a run for his money but a real life political scare.

Political analysts see Kalonzo as one candidate who, if he had the institutional support of ODM, could galvanise substantial share of voters against president Kibaki and easily make him an ignominious one-term president.

However, on the other hand, if ODM ship crashes spawning what one may baptize ODM-lets, chances of Kalonzo on his own putting together a team formidable enough to beat an incumbent will be rather slim. The same applies for all other ODM presidential candidates if they end up going it alone without the institutional umbrella of ODM.

Such a situation would be reminiscent of what happened to the opposition in 1992 when the opposition over-estimated the then president Moi’s vulnerability and went into war splintered only to be handed a humiliating defeat. The same story repeated itself again in 1997. But the opposition got a little wiser in 2002 (thanks to their corporate revulsion to a Uhuru presidency) and united under Mwai Kibaki to finally edge Kanu out of power.

The Moi factor in Kalonzo campaign
In the days when Kalonzo was president Moi’s trusted Foreign Affairs minister, the two had a chemistry that was the envy of many a politician save perhaps for the select few members of the president’s inner core team from the Rift Valley province.

Having caught Moi’s eye through the patronage of the then Ukambani Kanu supreme, the late Mulu Mutisya in the 80s, Kalonzo promptly got a vantage seat in the inner sanctum of the power structure of the Moi presidency.

Mulu Mutisya’s closeness to Moi easily rubbed off on Kalonzo and within no time, he too was enjoying close rapport with the then president. This rapport between the two continued up to that critical moment in 2002 at Kasarani when Moi declared his unequivocal preference for Uhuru Kenyatta as his chosen heir.

Kalonzo, who himself had started covertly nurturing presidential ambitions the moment it became clear that president Moi’s retirement was finally imminent joined hands with other prominent Kanu politicians Prof. George Saitoti, Raila Odinga, William Ole Ntimama, Joseph Kamotho and Musalia Mudavadi, to throw a most effective spanner in Moi’s works for Uhuru.

At the time, Kalonzo was viewed by many as the weakest link in the group-then calling itself the Rainbow Coalition- that had walked out on Moi over Uhuru. It was thus not surprising that Moi made several discreet attempts to woo back Kalonzo into the Kanu fold.

There were even reports that Moi had dangled the possibility of having Kalonzo as Uhuru’s running mate, never mind that Moi was himself retiring and therefore technically speaking he did not have a basis to make such an offer.

As it turned out, the weakest link in the Rainbow Coalition was Musalia Mudavadi who after a little pressure, traced his steps back to the Kanu fold only to lose even the parliamentary seat he had inherited from his father upon his death over a decade hence.

While a bit of bad blood appeared to have developed between Moi and Kalonzo after the latter ignored entreaties to return back to Kanu, the relations between the two seem to have warmed up in recent times.

However, although Moi himself has refrained from endorsing Kalonzo for the presidency (the former president recently stated that he backed president Kibaki’s bid for a second term), some of the prominent personalities in the Moi government-and who are still close to the former president-have openly declared their support for Kalonzo.

That Retired Gen. Lazarus Sumbeiywo has categorically stated that he supports Kalonzo’s bid for the top job is significant in several ways. First, Sumbeiywo is closely engaged with the Moi foundation.

For him to have come out openly to support Kalonzo although on another level his former boss, Moi, seems to prefer the incumbent could mean two things; that Moi and his former Army Commander may have decided to diversify their political investment with the former president supporting his successor while he (Moi) gets Sumbeiywo to back Kalonzo. Alternatively, Moi and his former aide may have differed on whom to back in the presidential race.

Another former key personality in the Moi government who had shown an inclination towards Kalonzo is former head of Public Service Dr Sally Kosgei. She has taken a detour to the William Ruto team but this could be strategic because apparently she is eyeing a parliamentary seat in the Rift Valley where today Ruto is king.

All factors put together, Kalonzo may be the person at the most vantage point in the forthcoming presidential race for unlike either Raila or President Kibaki, his is not a zero-sum game. With a good scheme and excellent networking, Kalonzo could upset the tables and come out tops in the race. If that happens, he obviously will be enthralled. If it does not, he could easily use the knowledge, experience, networks and resources gathered in the 2007 presidential race as his full dress rehearsal for 2012.

Kalonzo Musyoka at a glance
What works for him?

- viewed as amiable

- relatively youthful and thus can inspire the young voters

- Been in parliament for long and served as an assistant minister, deputy speaker and cabinet minister, Kanu organizing secretary……

- being a lawyer gives him a good professional background for politics

- does not appear to have been tainted by corruption

- professes to be a born-again Christian

- has structured a campaign on good family values base which resonates well with conservative Christians

- good looks and is telegenic

- he has been boosted by good ratings as a presidential candidate by independent opinion polls

- is not a hardline politician and cuts across as a suave and cosmopolitan operator

- Has useful foreign contacts gained in his days as foreign affairs minister and mediator in regional conflicts.

What works against him?

- viewed by others as a political coward

- others view his relative youthfulness as inexperience in the rough and tumble of competitive politics

- his opponents might view his service with the Kanu regime as a political assistant baggage from the Moi years

- has the smallest ethnic base among the top presidential contenders

- Is not considered particularly wealthy so may not have substantial personal resources fro his campaign.

- May be regarded as a religious hypocrite depending on how he reconciles his Christian ethics with the often unethical world of high stakes politics

- Moslems and other faiths may feel uncomfortable with him if he flaunts his Christian credentials too much

- He has a feeble voice and is not a particularly inspirational orator

- Viewed by some as not being a team player but rather a politician who wants to use others for his own ends

- Critics may view his apparent flexibility as a sign of political weakness

MPs secretly keeping CDF money for campaigns

A cross section of MPs are withholding Constituency Development Fund (CDF) money running into billions of shillings to finance and facilitate their re-election campaigns.

With over Sh 3.5b from the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) lying unutilized in various bank accounts as several projects uncompleted, there is general fear that the money could end up in their campaign kitties or used as goodies to influence voters ahead of this year’s general election.

Rift Valley province -----------Shs 804,753,997

Eastern Province ---------------Shs 589,652,515.65

Nyanza province ---------------Shs 637,710,743.95

Coast Province -----------------Shs 477,826,718.45

Western province --------------Shs 434,457,018

Central Province --------------- Shs 392,058,851

North Eastern -------------------Shs 127,978,200

Nairobi Province ---------------Shs 80,792,150

In Nairobi alone where Narc-K and ODM-K politics is strongest with accusations and counter accusations over poor development records, a whooping Sh 80,792,150 is yet to be utilized and there is fear that the money could have been withheld to finance their campaigns.

A report by the United Nations Development Fund (UNDP) revealed that poverty level is still very high across the country even with the introduction of the CDF money which MPs now have turned into a campaign kitty.

According to the report, poverty, disease and insecurity remains a major problem in Kenya despite the 5 per cent economic growth.

Uncollected Funds: Nairobi province

Kamukunji Constituency -----Norman Nyaga-------Shs 26,898,815.70

Starehe Constituency ---------Maina Kamanda-----Shs 25,155,766.10

Embakasi Constituency ------James Mwenje ------Shs 16,153,496.95

Langata Constituency---------Raila Odinga---------Shs 3,184.537.25

Westlands Constituency ------Fred Gumo---------- Shs 1,011,637.80

Dagoretti Constituency ------ Beth Mugo ----------Shs 557,746.20

Makadara Constituency ------Reuben Ndolo-------Shs 443,524.50

But even as the Nairobi Mps continue to withhold millions, according to the UNDP report, over 60 per cent of Nairobi’s population lives in slum areas with high level of crime, poverty and lack of basic social amenities.

Ironically, with Ganze constituency being the poorest in the country, it is surprising to note that coast province leads with a colossal amount of Shs. 477,826,718.25 lying in bank account held by various CDF committees.

Ganze Mp Joseph Kingi has not collected Shs. 39,066.036.35 from the CDF kitty despite the constituency being listed as the poorest in the country. Other constituencies with hundreds of millions lying idle in the bank which constituents now believe are being regretted for the 2007 elections are:

Uncollected Funds: Coast province

Kaloleni-------------------Shs 49,933,347.15

Bahari---------------------Shs 45,221,381.05

Ganze ------------------- Shs 39,066,036.35

Kisauni-------------------Shs 38,361,198.50

Msambweni--------------Shs 38,248,418.50

Matuga--------------------Shs 34,926,851.80

Malindi-------------------Shs 33,925,479.10

Bura ----------------------Shs 25,362,681.50

Taveta -------------------- Shs 23,835,610.60

Galole---------------------Shs 23,586,644.50

Magarini------------------Shs 22,151,039.80

Likoni --------------------Shs 18,006,298.05

Kinango ------------------Shs 17,997,521.80

Garsen --------------------Shs 16,723380.00

Wundanyi ---------------- Shs 11,299,471.00

Voi ------------------------ Shs 10,448,453.65

Lamu West -------------- Shs 9,587,578.20

Changamwe ------------ Shs 5,976,802.65

Mwatate ------------------ Shs 5,510,456.00

Lamu East --------------- Shs 3,962,904.50

Mvita----------------------Shs 3,695,163.75

In North Eastern a total of Shs 127,978,200 is yet to be put in use despite high poverty level coupled by insecurity, lack of infrastructure and social amenities.

Uncollected Funds: North Eastern Province

Fafi -----------------Shs 24,631,871.75

Wajir North ------- Shs 19,600,848.00

Mandera West -----Shs 18,420,330.50

Wajir East --------- Shs 17,456,987.70

Ijara -----------------Shs 15,981,302.75

Mandera East ------Shs 13,547,546.00

Wajir South ------- Shs 8,152,815.50

Wajir West -------- Shs 4,694,395.90

Mandera Central -–Shs 2,243,227.00

Dujis -------------- Shs 1,860,598.70

Lagdera ------------Shs 1,388,276.25

Uncollected Funds: Eastern Province

North Horr ----------- Shs 43,997,222.45

Central Imenti ------- Shs 40,068,580.00

Yatta ------------------ Shs 34,374,040.00

Kaiti -------------------Shs 30,216.124.10

Laisamis ------------ Shs 29,429,237.10

Mwala -----------------Shs 29,174,747.50

Saku ----------------- Shs 28,714,385.50

Manyatta ------------- Shs 25,215,588.50

Gachoka -------------- Shs 25,077,682.50

Masinga -------------- Shs 24,656,665.50

Mwingi South ------- Shs 23,516,768.35

Kangundo ------------ Shs 22,761,207.50

North Imenti --------- Shs 22,418,289.70

Mwingi North ------- Shs 21,211,646.25

Mutito ---------------- Shs 19,434,040

Kitui Central ---------Shs 17,580,785

South Imenti --------- Shs 17,482,776.00

Kathiani ---------------Shs 16,223,769.40

Tharaka ---------------Shs 12,811,085.90

Siakago ---------------Shs 12,810,847.50

Isiolo North --------- Shs 10,841,838.00

Ntonyiri --------------Shs 10,359,957.55

Makueni --------------Shs 10,022,121.80

Igembe ----------------Shs 9,293,716.70

Machakos Town -----Shs 8,350,993.60

Nithi -------------------Shs 8,051,426.70

Moyale ----------------Shs 7,269,682.00

Isiolo South ----------Shs 6,496,147.00

Tigania West ---------Shs 6,203,003.00

Kitui West ----------- Shs 5,504,104.20

Mbooni ----------------Shs 4,251,198.60

Kilome ----------------Shs 2,412,354.05

Runyenjes ------------Shs 2,204,507.15

Kibwezi ---------------Shs 384,692.15

Tigania East ---------Shs 319,773.00

Kitui South -----------Shs 190,983.20

Uncollected Funds: Central Province

Limuru ---------------------- Shs 37,635,423.65

Ndia ------------------------- Shs 27,679,572.50

Othaya ---------------------- Shs 23,540,279.20

Mathioya -------------------- Shs 22,340,373.00

Githunguri ------------------- Shs 19,322,308.80

Juja --------------------------- Shs 18,990,243.00

Mwea ------------------------ Shs 18,606,732.50

Kangema -------------------- Shs 18,522,009.50

Gatanga ---------------------- Shs 17,863,368.00

Ndaragua ------------------- Shs 16,748,092.50

Kiambaa --------------------- Shs 15,334,142.25

Mukurweini ---------------- Shs 14,961,693.70

Kigumo ---------------------- Shs 13,287,018.00

Nyeri Town ----------------- Shs 13,283,573.70

Lari ---------------------------- Shs 13,047,840.15

Ol Kalou -------------------- Shs 12,937,200.00

Mathira ---------------------- Shs 12,339,458.50

Gichugu ---------------------- Shs 10,369,237.20

Kerugoya Kutus ------------- Shs 9,036,781.35

Kabete -------------------------Shs 8,705,335.00

Maragwa --------------------- Shs 8,504,767.50

Gatundu South -------------- Shs 7,139,850.50

Kiharu ------------------------ Shs 6,770,762.00

Gatundu North -------------- Shs 6,728,390.90

Kieni ------------------------- Shs 5,539,821.65

Kipipiri --------------------- Shs 5,339,821.65

Kandara --------------------- Shs 3,743,828.20

Kinangop ------------------- Shs 3,727,761.00

Tetu -------------------------- Shs 13,454.20

Uncollected Funds: Rift Valley Province

Kwanza ------------------------ Shs 31,966,313.25

Laikipia East -------------------Shs 27,276,188.00

Laikipia West ------------------Shs 26,866,602.00

Molo ----------------------------Shs 26,747,598.20

Samburu West ---------------- Shs 25,572,872.45

Samburu East ------------------Shs 25,139,526.80

Eldoret North ------------------Shs 24,703,499.00

Kuresoi -------------------------Shs 24,661,200.50

Subukia -------------------------Shs 24,207,438.70

Naivasha -----------------------Shs 23,365,873.70

Saboti -------------------------- Shs 21,778,185.25

Tinderet ------------------------Shs 21,131,999.75

Marakwet East --------------- Shs 20,193,849.90

Marakwet West ---------------Shs 19,177,165.10

Keiyo South -------------------Shs 19,012,478.80

Narok South -------------------Shs 18,241,739.00

Emgwen ------------------------Shs 17,580,785.00

Mosop --------------------------Shs 16,886,632.00

Turkana Central -------------- Shs 15,338,359.35

Mogotio ------------------------Shs 15,271,937.50

Eldoret East --------------------Shs 13,424,794.30

Rongai --------------------------Shs 12,368,360.70

Eldoret South ------------------Shs 11,866,195.60

Aldai ----------------------------Shs 11,563,044.75

Eladama Ravine ---------------Shs 11,470,080.00

Kacheliba ---------------------- Shs 10,620,289.05

Kapenguria -------------------- Shs 10,190,502.50

Narok North -------------------Shs 9,140,676.40

Turkana North ---------------- Shs 8,337,351.75

Kajiado North -----------------Shs 7,385,162.40

Nakuru Town ------------------Shs 7,084,663.25

Keiyo North ------------------- Shs 5,942,507.50

Kipkelion ----------------------Shs 4,254,506.70

Sigor --------------------------- Shs 3,903,388.50

Kajiado South -----------------Shs 3,157,462.00

Kilgoris ------------------------Shs 1,404,104.15

Baringo Central ---------------Shs 1,112,860.95

Cherangany --------------------Shs 487,440.75

Uncollected Funds: Western Province

Emuhaya ------------------------Shs 38,308,979.60

Lurambi -------------------------Shs 34,040,173.50

Shunyalu ------------------------Shs 29,630.324.15

Hamisi --------------------------Shs 28,855,219.95

Kanduyi-------------------------Shs 27,241,798.75

Bumala--------------------------Shs 26,397,409.10

Budalangi-----------------------Shs 24,311,893.75

Butere ---------------------------Shs 24,107,430.50

Sabatia --------------------------Shs 23,862,948.45

Vihiga ---------------------------Shs 22,746,275.90

Kimilili -------------------------Shs 19,484,331.60

Butula---------------------------Shs 17,478,272.55

Sirisia ---------------------------Shs 17,149,439.55

Matungu ------------------------Shs 15,424,975.50

Webuye--------------------------Shs 15,311,291.50

Nambale-------------------------Shs 14,140,467.05

Khwisero------------------------Shs 12,750,005.74

Funyula--------------------------Shs 12,172,289.10

Ikolomani -----------------------Shs 10,687,857.00

Lugari ---------------------------Shs 5,737,364.40

Amagoro ------------------------Shs 3,873,137.00

Malava --------------------------Shs 2,752,322.85

Mt Elgon ------------------------Shs 2,710,113.20

Mumias -------------------------Shs 532,129.10

Uncollected Funds: Nyanza Province

Alego Usonga---------------Shs 56,830,255.25

Kitutu Chache---------------Shs 47,551,876.05

Rarieda-----------------------Shs 45,410,958.30

Bomachage------------------Shs 40,176,681.15

West Mugirango------------Shs 39,655,185.20

Gem--------------------------Shs 33,264,273.95

Bobasi------------------------Shs 31,847,564.00

Kuria-------------------------Shs 31,184,410.60

Karachuonyo----------------Shs 27,337,994.50

South Mugirango-----------Shs 26,297,344.35

Nyando-----------------------Shs 23,773,955.00

Muhoroni--------------------Shs 22,329,486.05

Nyatike----------------------Shs 22,776,406.55

Uririr-------------------------Shs 21,928,536.40

Bonchari---------------------Shs 20,749,896.25

Ugenya-----------------------Shs 19,458,574.40

Mbita-------------------------Shs 17,131,848.80

Rongo------------------------Shs 15,081,598.55

Gwasi------------------------Shs 14,098,206.70

Bondo------------------------Shs 14,033,386.95

Kisumu Town East---------Shs 11,498,098.95

Kitutu Masaba--------------Shs 9,169,112.00

Nyaribari Chache-----------Shs 8,941,383.50

North Mugirango ----------Shs 7,385,162.40

Migori------------------------Shs 5,634,972.00

Rangwe----------------------Shs 3,913,675.00

Ndhiwa----------------------Shs 3,805,028.00

Nyaribari Masaba----------Shs 3,021,128.35

Kisumu Rural---------------Shs 2,516,398.00

Kisumu Town West--------Shs 1,701,717.60

Kasipul Kabondo-----------Shs 8,042.00

Election war councils: Kalonzo Musyoka

Kalonzo Musyoka has assembled a battalion consisting of soldiers inherited from the think tank of retired president Moi and cabinet minister Charity Ngilu.

Among the big names that Kalonzo has inherited from Moi are Brigadier (rtd) Wilson Boinnet, former Intelligence head, Gen (rtd) Lazarus Sumbeiywo, Bishop Silas Yego of the AIC church, and former civil service head Dr Sally Kosgey.

The team inherited from Ngilu includes gemstone dealer Johnstone Muthama and real estate tycoon David Masika of Lloyd Masika.

The team is reinforced by a battery of university professors teaching in the US and enjoying chummy relationship with the Republican Party. The most visible faces in the group are Prof. Phillip Kaloki, a business lecturer at Dallas Baptist University and Prof Cyrus Mutiso.

Apart from their ability to plan and to gather political intelligence, the team inherited from Moi is wealthy and can be counted upon to fund a nationwide campaign for the Mwingi North MP.

Kalonzo is widely believed to be the candidate favoured by the US in this year’s election, thanks to his strong links in the Bush administration. He is the only opposition leader from Kenya who attended the US national prayer breakfast at the White House three weeks ago.

Last year, he was among the few African leaders granted the privilege to address a prestigious Republican Party think tank conclave in Dallus. His link in the Dallas caucus is Prof Kaloki.

Some names in the Musyoka war council

David Masika
He is the proprietor of Llyod Masika, a leading property management firm in the country. An astute businessman and a political player in his own right, Masika owns the Lukenya Guest House where ODM-Kenya was founded. He was so well connected in the Moi administration that at one point, he was appointed managing trustee of the NSSF, a notorious cash-cow during the Kanu era.

He also served as chairman of the National Bank of Kenya, yet another favourite of the long-fingered of the Moi government. In 1999, he had a disgraceful exit from the bank when he was forced to resign with his entire board after the bank recorded a Shs 1.2 billion loss.

Johnstone Muthama
He is best known as the gemstone tycoon. Reputably the richest man in Ukambani after the mysterious John Harun Mwau. Muthama, has previously heavily financed Charity Ngilu’s political adventures-including her 1997 presidential campaign.

In 2002, however, retired president Moi had him shift to Uhuru Kenyatta/Kanu camp only to return back to the Ngilu fold after Kanu lost and Ngilu was appointed cabinet minister. Though he is better known ion the world of jewellery, his business empire extends to real estate, construction and banking. He was a key investor in the controversial Euro bank, closed early in 2004 on allegations of impropriety and unethical business practices.

Daniel Maanzo
The Makueni-born human rights lawyer came to the limelight during last year’s referendum campaign. He was a member of the Orange Campaign Committee on secondment by Kalonzo Musyoka. He runs a private law firm housed at Tumaini House.

Paul Wambua Musili
The maritime law lecturer at the University of Nairobi is also Musyoka’s partner in Musyoka & Wambua advocates. He served as commissioner in the defunct Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC). He was a key consultant in the ill-fated 2001 merger between Kanu and Raila Odinga’s then NDP party.

Prof. Cyrus Mutiso
Until last year, he worked in the civil service. At one time, he worked at the local chapter of the Transparency International under John Githongo.

A former senior manager with Nation newspapers, the Syracuse University trained political scientist has been a lecturer in Kenya and the US. His development management consultancy controls multi-million shilling contracts in Africa, South Korea and the USA. He won the UN award as consultant for over 500 water dams in thea rid and semi-arid areas (ASALS).

Professor Joseph Maitha
A former director of the Central Bank of Kenya, Professor Maitha is now in the board of the Tiomin Mining Company. He has made a pile of money as an economic consultant with international financial institutions in the US. He is the founder/proprietor of the African Development and Economic Consultants.

Election war councils: Raila

In what promises to be a bruising battle, Raila Odinga war council is tackling the coming contest in two fronts. The first front is manned by seasoned political thinkers whose capacity to craft a populist political campaign is unrivalled.

Already, the strength of Raila’s political strategists has begun to emerge in ODM where a well-targeted propaganda has projected him as the only reformist in the ODM presidential race.

The propaganda is the work of a team consisting of university professors and operates from a hide-out owned by the Raila family in Upper Hill. It is this group that developed Raila’s political philosophy as published on his website, www.Raila07 .com.

The Upper Hill team is also responsible for the political coup that threw out pro-Kibaki officials from the multi-million shilling donor funded Centre for Multi-Party Democracy (CMD). The officials removed from the strategically important NGO are former chairman Dr. Apollo Njonjo, who lost the seat to Raila protégé, Prof. Larry Gumbe. Others are George Nyamweya and Calistus Mwatela.

The second front in the Raila kitchen cabinet is tasked with building a war chest for the candidate. It is organized in two groups. The first group is the Luo Diaspora Welfare and Economic Development Initiative, a group of Kenyan citizens in the Diaspora that has been organizing Raila’s trips abroad under the aegis of Friends of Raila.

The team coordinator is Dr Odeyo Ayaga, who teaches in the US. The organization has several branches in the US, and three others in Canada, Germany and UK respectively. The group’s organizing secretary is Dick Otuma, who lives in New Jersey, USA.

The second group in the Raila war chest team comprises of NGO personalities who can call the financial support from foreign donors at the snap of a finger. Some of the names in this group include, Oduor Ong’wen, who was the man behind the World Social Forum in Nairobi and Otiende Amolo, a former chairman of the Kenya Chapter of the International Commission of Jurists.

Some names in the Raila war team

Prof. Hastings Okoth-Ogendo
The law professor at the University of Nairobi was the vice chair of the now defunct Constitutional Review Commission of Kenya headed by the eccentric Prof. Yash Pal Ghai. A constitutional scholar, Ogendo has written extensively on democracy where he comes out explicitly as an advocate of parliamentary democracy with a prime minister as the head of government.

Prof. Larry Gumbe
A scientist, Gumbe teaches at the University of Nairobi. He is the man Kanu rebels led by Raila used to acquire the then moribund Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after a fall-out with president Moi in 2002.

Raila and co. used the newly acquired outfit to bargain for positions in the Narc coalition that went on to form the government. He has been the chairman of the party since then, a position he used to ascend to the helm of the strategically important Centre for Multi-Party Democracy.

Prof. Peter Wanyande
The professor of political science at the University of Nairobi has stuck with Raila since his days at National Development Party (NDP). The former dean of the faculty of arts at the University is a regular commentator on politics. He is also a consultant in various NGOs and international organizations.

Oduor Ong’wen
A former student leader at Nairobi University, his name has been synonymous with the NGOs since his release from jail in 1984.

The NGOs associated with him have tentacles all over Africa and operates budgets that are the envy of many a government in the third world.

Some NGOs in his orbit are Econews, Social Development Network, African Forum and Network for Debt and Development Network (AFRODAD), Southern and Eastern Africa Trade Information and Negotiations Institute (SEATINI), Third World Network (TWN), Human Rights Watch Africa, Kenya Social Forum and the Kenya Debt Relief Network (KENDREN)