13M registered voters in Kenya in January 2007

The Electrical Commission of Kenya has disclosed that as at January 2007 there are 13 million registered voters. These are distributed as follows:

Rift Valley - 2,997,942
Eastern - 2,125,644
Central - 1,956,642
Nyanza - 1,787,289
Western - 1,404,862
Nairobi - 1,104,053
Coast - 1,049,553
North Eastern - 258,693
Total - 12,684,678

What do these statistics portend for the general election?

• Votes regions will be key negotiation and campaign points. Constitution requires a presidential winner to garner at least 25% of votes cast in at least 5 provinces.
  
• There are close to 5 million eligible voters who do not have voting cards either because they have no identity cards or they have not yet registered for voting.
  
• The figures do not capture the Kenyans in the diaspora who may be willing to vote but there is no logistical infrastructure to enable them to vote.
• With a historical voter turnout of about 80%, slightly less than 10m votes will be counted in the 2007 general elections
• Politicians will coalesce their regions around potential regional chieftains and use the figures as a bargaining position in pre-election memorandum of understanding