History is repeating itself in Kenya. After a disputed elections on December 27 2007, a disputed presidency and a month-long crisis, violence, ethnic evictions and economy grinding to a halt, the Annan-led mediation team is finally prescribing a political solution to a political problem - a power sharing agreement between Kibaki and Raila.
To many Kenyans, this will be a Ripleys Believe it or Not scenario. Many remember with a bitter taste the pre-negotiated MOU between Raila and Kibaki in the run-up to the 2002 general elections which Kibaki trashed after he secured the presidency. The summit, a conglomeration of community elders and Narc thinkers was destroyed as its wings were clipped. They are at it again! By the end of the week, the fate of Kenya's leadership crisis will be more clearer than before.
What has become clear to many over the last several weeks is that the Kenyan crisis is not predominantly a political problem. The "unfair" loss of the ODM party was just a catalyst of a chain of events that were bound to happen anyway. It was a fissure through which a fiery volcano found its angry expression of the bottled up inequalities and perceived egoistic domination, political alienation and financial marginalisation. It was a social problem that needs to be adequately handled by all Kenyans.
Already, a sizeable number of the Internally Displaced People, IDPs have expressed concerns about returning back to their land where they were forcefully evicted. Many want to go back to their ancestral lands. Is this the justice to be meted to them? If they return back to their farms and property what needs to be done to the psyches of those lovely neighbours turned enemies who forcefully evicted them? Joint rallies between Kibaki and Raila will not do it. It is a guarantee that in Rift Valley where many have been evicted, Ruto and Raila will be cheered and Kibaki will be jeered.
Annan and his team, need to do more on this issue. If it is a truth and reconciliation commission or a land commission to address historical injustices, the time to do it is now, before leaving the mediation table. What about the justice of the over 1,000 Kenyans who were murdered? Is it not a capital offence with prescribed convictions? Sadly, soon, this will be bloody water under the bridge, courtesy of a power-sharing agreement negotiated by a team of three eminent Africans.
By agreeing to share power and choosing to bury the falsehoods and truths of the December 2007 general elections, the leading protagonists will yet again be betraying the wish of Kenyans and the course of justice. They will be whitewashing a stain in our history that will make the cloth rot with time. It was very important that whatever happened during the voting and tallying process be brought to the fore and conclusively dealt with.
Failure by the mediation team to resolve and establish the correctness of ODM and PNU rigging assertions should not have been the end. It should have been taken further, for example, to the level of establishing a judicial commission of inquiry headed by eminent African jurists, now that Kenyans have no confidence with fellow Kenyans of judicial conviction. If anything, to satisfy Kenyans thirst for truth and justice, the least to set the records straight. The panel of eminent African persons should not bury their heads in the sand on this one.
For all purposes, a reincarnate MOU will be counter-productive. It may achieve a resemblance of peace, a fake calmness but the fears and suspicions will linger within Kenyans much more as they will be with Kibaki and Raila. If Raila won fairly and square, Annan should let him be. If Kibaki, so be it. Otherwise it will be another five years of power struggle and domination shenanigan, Raila and Kibaki each trying to prove who is most powerful of the two.
It will be a reminiscence of the 2003, 04 and 05 years where the government pulled within and without not withstanding the clash of political ideological differences and disconnect of economy philosophies that will be played out in the media and in the public gallery. In other words, it will be a miracle to have the two work together for the good of Kenya.
Annan should do better.
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