Kenya Politics in 2012

Welcome to 2012 in Kenya. This will be one of the most interesting and engaging years in Kenyan politics.

Once the ICC at the Hague puts Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto on trial (or dismisses their case) the political gear will be engaged and political temperatures will rise. Whichever way these cases go will determine who will be the next president of Kenya. It is Raila Odinga's last chance to be Mr. President and with him enjoying the benefits of incumbency, it is his presidency to lose. There are high chances that if Raila were to lose the elections, he will be beaten by Uhuru Kenyatta. A Raila versus Uhuru presidential campaign will most likely take us back to 2007.

The next big thing in 2012 is who will be the governors of the 47 counties. Other than the vast financial resources to be controlled by the governors, there is the "mini-president" and the "president-in-waiting" prestige associated with this newly created post. The main "war-zones" for the governorship will be rich and volatile counties like Nairobi, Nakuru, Mombasa, Meru, Nyeri, Kiambu, Kajiado and Kisumu. The governor position will also be fun to watch as level-headed corporate heads and green horns battle it out with the no-nsense and no-holds-barred characters like Sonko with bottomless easily-acquired campaign pockets.

The senator position may not elicit much emotions as many people have resigned to the fact that for its first term the senate will be an enclave of the rich octogenarians who need a little snooze from active politics.

Whichever the case may be, 2012 is bound to be another election year in Kenya when tribalism, corruption, misuse of government resources, voter bribery and violence reign.