Archive for October 2007

Top 10 campaign issues: Majimbo

ODM is pushing for Majimbo, PNU is rejecting Majimbo and ODM-K is halfway Majimbo they call it economic federalism. Important to note that ODM is pushing for social democracy while PNU is purely capitalistic with government having philanthropic tendencies towards the people who pay taxes. All want to achieve equitable distribution of national ugali with PNU being the most reluctant competitor on this one.

The idea of majimbo basically is devolution of power. Make the central government give over half of the national resources to each jimbo/region. Make people in the grassroot to be in charge of how they want to use the resources from central government. Make people in the grass to decide how to use resources within their yard. Make these people elect the people they want to govern over them in their region, not the imposed provincial administration. This understanding not withstanding many have not yet grasped the wonderful idea of Majimbo.

To the Coasterian whose Mzee Shariff Nassir brought up this issue in the 90's, its cessation of domination by the watu wa bara who have taken their shambas, their Mombasa ports jobs and revenue that is taken to Nairobi to be dished out instead of been used to develop Mombasa and its environs and locals. They will be the greatest beneficiary because over 70% of the coast population live as squatters, a huge percentage is jobless while the tourist business booms and ports mints billions per week. They also have special interests in the dominant religion in the jimbo and may want to assert more say on the day to day disputes between two muslims. This region will be the greatest beneficiary of a majimbo system. It will be a chance to correct the historical injustices of land issues and poverty eradication. Each region will have the freedom of elevating their sons and daughters to kingly positions and be satisfied with the trappings of power.

It is on the same basis that PNU campaigners are talking of chaos in Kenya if Majimbo is to be adopted. That people will be forced to move to their ethnically correct jimbo if the system is adopted. But Ruto a pentagon member of ODM says that nothing can stop an idea whose time has come. It seems Majimbo having been on Kenya's glossary since the hey day of the Bomas of Kenya constitution suggests that Kenyans are more likely to accept this system than ever before. That the central government system has not worked since 1963 is a good case of adopting Majimbo. After all people has seen the advantage of resources at the grassroots with a 2.5% of national budget being channelled to the roots using the Constituency Development Fund. What about a 40% rise in such an allocation through the jimbo.

To be ironed out on the majimbo debate will be:

  • Cost of political and legislative structures of implementing new regions if not based on provincial administration. Another election to elect the regional representatives.
  • Subjection of the Bomas draft to a referendum as is. What about the contentious issues? What will happen if the Bomas draft is rejected, no majimbo?
  • Structures based on current provincial administration. Will the provincial administration be scrapped? Will the provincial administrators be elected other than appointed?
  • Structures based on civic representatives. Elevate the councillors to be regional leaders, with area MP as governor or a mayors to have more powers. Legal structures to provision this will be required.
  • How will resources be earned by regions. Collect taxes within your region, retain 60%, forward 40% to central government. Regions with less resources may result to hut taxes to meet their obligations.Or the central government will have to favour regions without a good tax base leading to inequitable distribution. Or Central government collecting all taxes and then dishing out equal portions to each region.
  • What about cross-regionalborder trade? E.g. transporting cargo from Mombasa port to Busia. Coast region imposes a huge tax on non-local goods, transit taxes through toll stations as the cargo passes Eastern Region, Nairobi Region, Central Region, Rift Valley Region and finally Custom and Excise on Western border. or will regions come together in a COMESA or EAC like trade bloc in order to control cost of production within the country?
  • What will be the power of central government over the regional governments. If a regional government imposes punitive regulations on its people or incoming people from other regions, to what extent will the regional government intervene? Will such intervention mean that the regional government will not be autonomous?
  • Or Kenya just use the semi-devolved structure of CDF and increase allocation from 2.5% of the budget to 40%? Will this be called majimbo?


Thursday December 27th 2007 the election D DAY for Kenya

Samuel Kivuitu the battled Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) Chairman declared voting to be done on Dec 27th 2007 6PM to 5PM. Preliminary results to be expected on Dec 28th 2007. Kenya to move to 2008 with a fourth president or the third continue. Over 14million registered voters to dictate Kenya's destiny and place it in the hands of their leader loved.

Over 180,000 voters are double registered and to be struck of the register after the grace period expires.

Returning officers and their deputies have been appointed. They will not serve in their constituencies to take care of personal interests.

Party nominations for MPand Civic seats set to continue from tomorrow to 16th November.

Formal presidential nominations to be done on 14th to 15th November and form MP and Civic nominations to be done on 23rd and 24th November.

ECK was keen not to put the election day on a Friday(for Muslim sake), Saturday (SDA sake) or Sunday (for Christ's sake).

Past elections were held on:

2002 - Friday the 27th
1997 - Monday the 29th
1992 - Tuesday the 29th

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Steadman Research: Raila Leads the pack

Engineer Tinga Agwambo Raila Odinga Oginga - 50 % (3% drop)
Emilio Mwai Wa Kibaki - 39% (1% rise)
Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka - 8% (no change regardless of miracle launch)

ODM - 50%
PNU - 30%
ODM-K - 8%

The Steadman polled 2,181voters between 20th October and 23rd October in their every two weeks opinion polls.

Raila and Kibaki comfortably meet the constitutional demand of having at least 25% of votes cast in at least 5 provinces.
Voter turnout to be key in the election campaigns.

Using past elections voter turnout esp 92,97and 02:

Raila leads with 46%
Kibaki follows with 44%
Kalonzo trails with 1%

On the Majimbo debate, whether voters want majimbo:

Yes - 38%
No - 44%
Not sure - 7%
Don't know - 10%

Unknown SRCS Next Opinion Polls Expectation: Raila rating to continue going marginally down as Kibaki's rises

TitBits: Raila under pressure to shift base to Bondo and later nominate elder brother Oburu to parliament. Langata seat the most hottest as Kibaki men ready for a defeat

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Top 10 campaign issues: Tribalism

Kenyans will be guided by this campaign issue whichever way one looks at it. It means different things to different people. At the high and up there it is a Kikuyu-Luo affair. Others it is where our tribesman is and what he has been promised come January 2008.

Nearly 95% probability that one can predict how a person will vote based on his name and a view of National ID card. Kenyans are good at protecting and fight for their kinsmen despite their personality, character and leadership manners. Unfortunately very few Kenyans gain from these arrangements until their tribal kings come knocking five years after. It is not usually who is good for Kenya, but who is good for the tribe. The euphemism version of tribe currently is region and community.

Given, Kenyans will vote along tribal lines come December 2007. Those going against the grain will lose their seats or opportunity to enter the August House. Unfortunately some will even be wounded or die battling for their kinsmen. Obviously this is a campaign issue that is one of the cards played under the table and is camouflaged through nicely crafted coalitions, voting bloc nominated kingmakers and other humble looks.

ODM: Kikuyu have over-dominated the presidency. Kenya belongs to all of us. We have to fight the enemy and place them where they should be. That is on the foot of Mt Kenya. They have been very arrogant, do not listen to others and thinks they deserve to rule over others. Let us come together and teach them a lesson, as we did in the referendum. Why should all government positions be owned by Mt Kenya Mafia. All resources like roads fund has been taken to Nyeri and Othaya while Kano plains and Budalangi people suffer in floods. All people are equal but in Kenya some are more equal than others. We should stop these tribalists in their tracks.

ODM-Kenya: Other communities are coming together to fight their own interests. Why should we be left behind. Let us come together as the Kamba, vote as a block for our own son. If he wins we will have water throughout, get more government jobs and we will no longer drought and famine again. If our man loses, do not worry he will negotiate with the winner because we will have a second majority seat in parliament and he will be appointed vice president. Imagine! We have never had a vice president from our region since independence. How dare other tribes ignore us like that. Anyone of us who does not subscribe to this Masaku declaration is a tribalist and a traitor. Charity begins at home and Charity should come home.

PNU: Look at all these tribalists. They have appointed tribal kings and brought them in one basket to hoodwink their tribes that their cake will be larger if they win elections. We are not tribal so we will get all the one thousand political parties and put them in our PNU. Each tribe should have their own party and convince their tribes to vote for us through their tribal parties. Then we will tell our tribe not to sleep because other tribes have ganged against us. Their son should not lose the seat. They should get out in large numbers to vote for mudu weto. We are the majority tribe, we spill most blood in Mau Mau so we redeemed this country. Others are the tribalists we are not.

KPP: Bibiria inasema, my tribe is in heaven. All the angels in heaven will come and vote for me. Yesu alipitia katikati yao na hawakumuona. Nitapitia katikati yao na hawataniona kamwe. Can I hear amen!