Showing posts with label Mutahi Ngunyi. Show all posts

Mutahi Ngunyi Predicts a Jubilee Alliance Win - The Tyranny of Numbers (Hypothetically)

Mutahi Ngunyi, Kenya's renowned political scientist has taken to YouTube to hypothetically analyze the IEBC voter registration numbers. According to him, the elections were won on December 18th 2012 by Jubilee alliance based on the voter mobilization and registration in their ethnic strongholds.

Of course no media house in Kenya can touch this analysis since it is based on a historical assumption that Kenyan will vote along tribal lines.











Mutahi Ngunyi however fails to put the following into consideration
  • CORD and Amani coalitions effect on the Rift Valley votes
  • CORD effect on the western vote
  • How he came up with the aggregated GEMA numbers
  • How he distributes Nairobi county numbers
  • The tribal voting blocks are not contiguous e.g Kiambu is a cosmopolitan county and not all the 800K plus votes are GEMA
LISTEN TO THE CLIP TO UNDERSTAND MUTAHI NGUNYI'S ARGUMENT



Mutahi Ngunyi Disclaimer: Everything said in this clip is hypothetical. That must also be noted.



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Mutahi Ngunyi Opinon on Political Intrigues in Kenya

Mutahi Ngunyi is a renown political commentator and advisor. He writes a popular column on the Sunday Nation titled; The Last word. Today was Mutahi Ngunyi's turn to be interviewed by jeff Koinange on K24.

On Martha Karua's Spirited Fight for a Local Tribunal

Martha Karua is extremely pedestrian or mischievous to suggest that small fish will go scot free as big fish head to the Hague. Just like the Rwanda's village Kachacha courts, post election rapists, those who torched houses and murderers can effectively be handled by the magistrate courts in Kibera and Eldoret. In fact, if they know these criminals what are they waiting for?

Kibaki Should fire Mutula Kilonzo

Mutula Kilonzo proposed that the two principals (Kibaki and Raila) should resign over the failure to marshal troops in parliament. Kibaki should have fired Mutula immediately. If it was Moi, Mutula would have been fired over the 1 o'clock news.

On the Grand Coalition so far

The Grand Coalition is a fellowship of thugs and currently is only between the two principals who will stick together no matter what.

Kenya is facing imminent collapse, the sooner this happens the better, we fight and sought each other out, so as to have a clean slate in 2012. The process of political decay which is necessary. Even in the bible, unless a grain of wheat falls to the ground a plant cannot develop. For Kenya, things have to break before they can be ok. There will be a few dark patches ahead and after that there will be light.

Maize Corruption Scandal

Politicians who got maize and sold it out of the country are sub-human, probably with a tail if they were to be examined. If corruption has become a fourth factor of production (in addition to land, labour and capital), they should just legalize it. The government promised Kshs 52 maize flour is nowhere to be seen and prices has skyrocketed to kshs 150. Revolutions are about food and these politicians a precipitating one in Kenya. For example, the french revolution. The gods make blind those they wish to destroy. They may have blinded these leaders in order to destroy them.

Motion of Censure on William Ruto, the Minister for Agriculture

This is nothing but political nonsense. Even if it was to pass, Ruto will step aside, a commission will be set up, findings will not be made public and just like Kimunya, president Kibaki will reinstate him and ask what are you gonna do about it? The best censure should be from the community which tells such a minister we have nothing to do with you.

Generational Change needed in Kenya

Jeff Koinange's and Mutahi Ngunyi's generation (the 40s) has to rise to the occasion. Just like the "Rika ria 40" (the 40 ageset) which was a rebellion against the wazees of the time in the manner they were dealing with the colonialists. If this ageset failes, a demagogue may emerge, move the masses but a bit cranky upstairs, for example, like what happenedn in history of Europe that lead such leaders like Musolin and Hitler.

On Moi

Moi offered leadership, Kibaki leadership woolly and woolly to the extreme, no leadership at all. Raila has become woolly as well since been let into the inside. For example, in yesterday's vote in parliament where 93 Mps opposed Raila and Kibaki this means that these 93 Mps have no leader.

On the Hague

It is a good option. Our leaders are cowards though they look like great people. Mention Hague to them and they tremble as it affects their families for example their children are out there. They may have to be deported back if their fathers are sent to the Hague. It is a good psychological war to these leaders. In terms of speedy justice, it is a not a good option. Kenyans should however not put their faith in the Hague e.g. there has only been 4 arrests of the 12 warrants of arrests issued by ICC. The 8 remaining 4 have since died and 4 are still at large.

On Annan

Mutahi Ngunyi holds the view that Annan should go back to Kumasi or wherever he came from. It should have been better if we had a Kenyan solution. For now, however, we need international intervention. Annan should tell us on 1 march who are on the envelope so that we can relax. Then those who want to hide behind their communities can do so and those communities who want to fight for their leaders can do it/ They should be allowed to do so, so that this 'hiding behind a community' can be fixed once and for all.After all, violence may not have the same impact it had in January 2008 since the two principals are bossom buddies.



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Mutahi Ngunyi: Who is the revolutionary: Moi, Kibaki or Raila?

In life, we do not see things as they are; we see them as we are. And nothing illustrates this better than the story of this Italian guy who worked for a clinic in Yugoslavia in the early 80s.

Every morning, he would cross the border to Yugoslavia by bicycle and be subjected to a thorough search. The authorities at the border believed that he was smuggling stuff into the country.

They would, therefore, undress him and disassemble his bicycle hoping to find something. For years, the routine continued without success.

After the liberation of Slovenia from Yugoslavia, one of the border guards saw the man in a cafe and introduced himself.

He said to him: “… I used to check you every morning at the border. We were convinced that you were smuggling something, yet we found nothing when we searched you. So, what exactly were you smuggling?”

The man replied: “The bicycles I rode, of course!” Because they were conditioned to think in a certain way, the border guards missed the point.

And this is exactly what we have done with our leaders. We do not judge them as they are; we judge them as we are! The result:

We cannot tell the thugs from the visionaries. Let me use Mr Daniel arap Moi, the former president, as a reference point.

The record must reflect that we misjudged Mr Moi on three accounts. The first regards ‘‘Project Uhuru.’’ On this one, we were wrong and Mzee Moi was damn right.

And not because of one Mr Uhuru Kenyatta; this Kenyatta guy was just a symbol. We were wrong because we rejected an idea whose time had come. At the core of the project were two fundamentals.

One, to retire the likes of Mr Mwai Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga. These politicians were part of the old vision that needed to give way to a new one.

Two, to effect a generational change from the independence politicians to the ‘‘Obama generation’’ in its 40s. And if America is considering the idea today, Mr Moi had seen it for Kenya five years ago.

But because we disliked him at the time, we rejected the man and his visionary project. In its place, we chose an inferior idea sold to us by the political twin brothers: Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga.

Working together or separately, the idea of the two has been a disaster for Kenya.

The second area in which we misjudged Mr Moi regards integrity. I was convinced that Mr Moi would be the one to plunge the country into civil war.

And opportunities to do so were made available to the old man. After the NARC victory in 2002, he could have rejected the results like President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe did.

Similarly, he had the option of handing over the government to the armed forces, an idea entertained by some of his cronies.

And either way, he would have emerged the winner as we have seen with Mr Mugabe. But given all these options, the former president chose the country over self.

The same cannot be said of President Kibaki. Faced with a similarly difficult situation in December last year, he did not exhibit statesmanship.

Securing his presidency was more important than the survival of the country. This is why history will judge him harshly.

As for Mr Odinga, we must ask this question: if he loses the 2012 race, will he take it with the dignity of Mr Moi or the brashness of President Kibaki?

Although Mr Odinga is ‘‘Moi-sh’’ in his approach, my suspicion is that he will act like President Kibaki in such an eventuality.

The third account on which we misjudged Mr Moi regards simple people. We laughed at the illiterate cronies around him, and the choir masters he promoted to head parastatals.

But when I think about it today, there was a strategy here and it was two-pronged. One, it was about equalising relations.

Under Mr Moi everybody, especially simple people with talent, had a chance of becoming somebody.

Two, by surrounding himself with illiterate cronies like the late Mulu Mutisya or Kariuki Chotara, the symbolism was that he was one with the grassroots.

And the message to the people was that there was a place for the ‘‘grassroots’’ people in the ‘‘glasshouses’’!

The story is different under the twin brothers in power. For President Kibaki, you have to be posh to gain his favour and to benefit from his enterprise.

But the case is worse for Mr Odinga. While Mr Moi consulted with the Mutisyas and the Chotaras, Mr Odinga’s ‘‘glasshouse’’ is full of mzungu operatives.

The only ‘‘grassroots’’ fellows are his hustlers who, unlike the Moi simpletons, are poverty stricken.

The question we must, therefore, ask is this: between Mr Moi, President Kibaki and Mr Odinga, who is the revolutionary?

The visionary and innovator, in my view, is Mr Moi; the other two are just his copycats. And this is why the ‘‘Obama generation’’ must borrow from him if they are to wrestle power from the twin brothers.

Some of the Moi lessons are contained in a business book I am currently reading entitled Leading the Revolution by Gary Hamel.

The person who will lead the ‘‘Obama generation’’ must be about three things. One, he must have imagination.

According to Mr Hamel, “…(people) fail to create the future not because they fail to predict it, but because they fail to imagine it.” The best example of imagination in Kenya is Equity Bank.

Two, the guy must have a capacity to celebrate the stupid. Wealth and change are created by ‘‘stupid’’ ideas; ideas that people will laugh at as untenable.

Three, this person must be able to win small, win early and win often. Do we have such a person in the house?

Mr Mutahi Ngunyi is a political scientist with The Consulting House, a policy and security think-tank for the Great Lakes region and West Africa.



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Mutahi Ngunyi: Three tricks Raila should learn from Kibaki

Prime Minister Raila Odinga should stop behaving like President Kibaki’s ‘‘house girl’’. The good president is taking it easy in his typical ‘‘kuji-enjoy’’ style, but this PM guy is too intense about work.

He is everywhere, doing everything. What is more, no body asked him to: It is not part of his brief as PM or as MP for Langata.

The man is just a restless being who has to keep busy. And the problem with his higgledy-piggledy style is that it exposes him. The more I reflect on Mr Odinga in ‘‘power,’’ the more ‘‘Moi-sh’’ he looks: selfish, unreliable and a turncoat.

Today he supports the opposition, when in ‘‘power’’ he tells us opposition is bad. When in the cold he supports civil society, when in ‘‘power’’ he tells us that civil society cannot be involved in constitutional review. The man is swinging like a pendulum!

But is this deliberate or is he doing it sub-consciously? I want to believe that Mr Odinga is looking for balance in his new role. And anyone in his position is bound to act like him -- higgledy-piggledy or ovyo ovyo (in Kiswahili).

However, and as he looks for balance, the PM’s problem is that he is unable to keep his mouth shut.

The confusion he is going through is, as a result, broadcasted to the public everyday to the horror of some of us.

And this is why the PM should borrow a few tricks from his political twin brother -- the President. Not because President Kibaki is better than him, but because of what one philosopher said: “… a wise man benefits more from his enemies than a fool from his friends.”

The first thing Mr Odinga should learn from President Kibaki is the politics of silence and scarcity.

When looking for balance, silence is a powerful political tool. In fact silence does not only aggravate your enemy, it annoys even the devil. Each time an opportunity is given to him to shut up, the PM should therefore grab it.

The Holy Bible says that “…even a fool, when he keeps quiet, appears wise”. In the case of Mr Odinga, his wisdom is becoming questionable because his mouth is all over. And the same can be said about his everyday appearance in the media. According to the law of supply and demand, scarcity increases the price.

The more you are in supply as a politician, the lower your price and the lesser the respect. Because he is in the media daily, this ‘‘tinga’’ man is losing the magic and the mystique. In fact, each time I see him on TV, I switch channels to avoid his government small talk.

The second trick regards the acquisition of an enemy. Every good politician has a worthy enemy. And, in the absence of one, you should create an enemy from nowhere.

President Kibaki understood this principle early and, today, he is a creation of high quality and hardworking enemies. The same testimony can be given by Fidel Castro who believed that the bigger your enemy, the tighter the bond between you and your followers.

In fact Castro believed that there was only one device for “keeping the spirit of the revolution alive.” That tool: a worthy enemy! If the PM is to make it as the fourth President of the Republic, he needs a good strong-headed enemy.

His father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, had T.J. Mboya as the enemy who built him. With such an enemy on your heels, you cannot afford to be lazy. He will sharpen your skills and keep you focused.

My hypothesis is that Mr Odinga is currently sloppy because he does not have an opposing force to energise him since he joined Mr Kibaki. And, unless he gets one, he is likely to grow lazy and unfocused.

In my view, Mr Odinga’s worthy enemy is not the VP, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka. The opposing force for Mr Odinga will come from the Kalenjin. And the person to lead it is likely to be Mr William Ruto.

In fact, if Mr Ruto led a Kalenjin rebellion against the PM, Mr Odinga’s ambitions for 2012 would be in danger. This is so because the Kalenjin are his political lifeblood.

The third trick is to commit to no one. President Kibaki has no loyalty to anyone, except his immediate family. And although politicians have a problem with this, it is an ancient rule of realpolitik.

This way, he is not beholden to anyone and he has the independence to act as he wishes. In my recent reading of history, I have realised that enduring republics were built by strong, visionary individuals.

In fact the Asian Tigers became economic giants because they were partly led by authoritarian leaders. To the contrary the PM is a groupie who believes in the ‘‘dictatorship of the proletariat.’’

Unfortunately, his team model has failed twice now because the captain is held hostage by the team members. In my view, therefore, the PM should abandon this ‘‘team thing’’ and establish hegemony as an individual.

He should break away from the bondage of Mr Ruto and the rest of the Pentagon power brokers. Then he can have the luxury to commit to no one.

And, while at it, he should remember the words of former President Moi: “… life is not an emergency.” As such, he should work hard, and play hard as well!



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Mutahi Ngunyi: Forget corruption, let’s target poverty

When I was a boy, I was taught that whenever a village elder sat with his legs apart, I must not look. But if I was overcome by curiosity and looked, I must keep my mouth shut.

Mr John Githongo must be one of those naughty boys who always looked and could not keep his mouth shut. And this is exactly what he did at State House.

He was invited into the ‘Chief’s court’, and held in absolute trust by President Kibaki. After a short while, young and ‘shocked’ Mr Githongo took off to London. Reason? He had seen ‘something’ and was itching to tell.

In the company of curious aliens abroad, he dropped the bombshell: the fellow told them that our Chief was sitting with his legs apart. The world loved the drama, but we shrank with shame at home.

Back with a mission

Now Mr Githongo is back with a mission. And before we give him ‘air time’, we must rebuke him for behaving like a drama ‘queen’.

Yes, he fought the right battles at State House, but his approach was all wrong. Like a worthy drama ‘queen’, he won the fight but exposed our nakedness.

And this is why we must question his current mission. Is he doing this for the love of mother Kenya? Or maybe he is doing it for the love of the poor? In my opinion, John Githongo is in this thing for John Githongo.

He is a self-appointed high priest whose campaign is about ‘me, myself and I’. This is why when I listen to him keenly, I hear nothing new. Nothing inspiring, and nothing visionary; just whining about the past.

Anti-graft high priest

In my view, we do not need an anti-corruption high priest. And anyone eyeing the position is a false prophet. What the country needs is an anti-poverty crusader.

This is the guy to give us a new hope and vision for the future. In fact, we should abandon the fight against corruption and fight poverty instead.

If we tackle poverty first, we will eliminate corruption from its roots. And my point here is that grand corruption is not where the crisis is located. Evidence shows that there is no significant relationship between grand corruption and poverty.

The country loses more money to inefficiency and systems failure than to corruption. Fighting grand corruption is, therefore, like playing a sport; fashionable alright, but not effective in terms of poverty reduction.

If we fight poverty instead, we would empower people to resist corruption. This is so because a people free from poverty are likely to vote for a more accountable government. Similarly, better paid civil servants are less compelled to support corruption. Take the police for instance.

A while ago I was stopped by a traffic policeman for driving without a road licence and insurance. I was exercising my right to civil disobedience when this happened. Knowing I was on the wrong, the policeman got to the point and asked for a bribe. I informed him that I was broke at the time, but he suggested that we go to an ATM.

As we drove around, he apologised for bullying me and begun to narrate his existence. The guy lived in a single room which he shared with another cop. His main agony was when his wife visited from upcountry and he was allocated the night shift.

If his roommate was doing the day shift, he would have to leave his wife in the same room with this guy. Although the room is divided into two by a curtain, the idea was still repulsive. That evening he had left his wife in such a situation.

Renting guns

He continued to explain why his colleagues in the force rent out their guns and uniforms to thugs. These fellows are not only dehumanised from their living conditions, they are also impoverished to the core. And because a goat eats where it is tethered, they have to feed their children through crime and corruption.

This situation applies to lower ranking soldiers in the army, prison guards and other impoverished civil servants. What is more: the petty corruption they manage generates almost four times the revenue from grand corruption.

And if this is so, shouldn’t we be fighting petty corruption instead of the Githongo-type grand corruption? Similarly, shouldn’t we fight it by tackling poverty?

But where will the anti-poverty crusader come from? Will it be a ‘holier than thou’ NGO-type? I highly doubt it. This crusader could come from amongst the poor themselves.

And I am inspired here by the story of Jephthah, as told in the Holy Bible at Judges 11. This was a brave soldier from Gilead, born of a prostitute woman. When his father died, his step brothers send him away and he fled to live in the land of Tob.

While there, he attracted a group of worthless men and formed an army. With the support of these worthless poor men, Jephthah, the son of a prostitute became the King of Gilead.

My point? The anti-poverty crusader with a new vision for Kenya does not have to be as posh as Mr Githongo. It could be a shepherd like King David or a carpenter like Jesus Christ! Is there someone out there fitting this description?

Mr Mutahi Ngunyi is a political scientist with The Consulting House, a policy and security think-tank for the Great Lakes region and West Africa.



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Mutahi Ngunyi: ‘Matatu presidency’ and power vacuum

President Kibaki says there is no leadership vacuum in Kenya. And I agree.

Instead of a vacuum, there is a leadership saturation. We have a bloated cabinet and a ‘matatu presidency’.With power sharing, the presidency has been split into two.

If you are to add the vice-president and the two deputy prime ministers, what used to be the presidency has a crowd of five occupants now.

But leadership is not position only; it is action. This means that the ‘matatu presidency’ must have a driver.

Decides to sleep

If President Kibaki decides to sleep, someone in the crowd of five will take over as driver. With this arrangement, there can be no leadership vacuum; only a power vacuum.

And if the grand coalition has a problem, it is because of this power vacuum. But what is the difference?

Leadership is positional, while power is personal. From leadership you get allegiance; from power you get loyalty.

Jesus Christ for instance, did not hold a public office like that of a party leader or a cabinet minister. He was just a lumpen carpenter with revolutionary ideas.

And from his personal mission, he wielded power. Today, half the world is loyal to him.

To the contrary, President Kibaki has no power — just authority arising from his position. As a result, he does not attract loyalty, only allegiance.

Loyalty is an expression of love and commitment; allegiance is a dry act of duty. This is why Ms Martha Karua will defend him vigorously one day, and then ditch him the other.

The girl was just doing a job, fulfilling a duty: No love, no passion, and no commitment. But what does this have to do with a power vacuum?

Human beings have a desire to believe in someone. And the person they believe in is the person who wields power.

In politics, this person is usually a symbol; an icon that will attract devotion and hate at the same time. One that will inspire some people and make others perspire.

Former president Daniel Moi was such a person. We loved and hated him at the same time. And to those who disliked him, he still remained a symbol of national unity.

In other words, he wielded power over his enemies and followers alike. The same cannot be said of President Kibaki.

Our good president has not attracted serious loyalty and devotion beyond my relatives from Nyeri. As for his opponents, he has absolutely no power over them.

This is why he had to invite Mr Raila Odinga into government to contain them. In sum, the country has no centre and no symbol of power. The ‘matatu presidency’ has created a power vacuum

A while ago, I would have argued that this is good for the country. But the more I study the coalition government, the more I am convinced otherwise.

In fact, I am now persuaded that the grand coalition is a primitive and escapist form of government, worse than the one party system.

And as we export it to Zimbabwe, we must post this warning on it: “User Be Ware!”

But why do I call it primitive and escapist? I am compelled by two things. One, should this government collapse, the country could go into civil war.

The coalition is therefore the glue that is holding us together. And this is what annoys me.

A country like ours should be forming coalitions to achieve greater things, not to avoid civil war.

But because of the incompetence of President Kibaki’s first regime, the nation disintegrated into a ‘banana republic’.

Now we have to adopt a mode of government that is only fit for the ‘junk nations’. This is why I call it primitive.

Sloppy Annan accord

Two, the Peace Accord brokered by Mr Kofi Annan was sloppy to the extreme. It paid undue attention to the immediate and did minimal for the future peace architecture.

My main beef with the Annan process is that it squandered a constitutional moment.

Such moments are brought to us by the gods, and we could have effected some significant constitutional changes.

But because some people were in a hurry to become ministers, that was not possible. Come 2012 or before, we have to start all over again.

This is so because the Peace Accord was designed to cover five years only. After that, any attempts at power sharing will have to be re-negotiated — maybe after some violence.

And this is why I call the coalition government escapist: it is a five year ‘commercial break’ from reality.

But is there a way out? In my view, we need to face our reality straight in the face. For starters, the cabinet is in a state of confusion because of the power vacuum.

This means that the government cannot operate like this for a long time. The alternative therefore is to disband it and call for an early election.

This dynamic might give us new alliances that would defuse the ethnic tensions significantly. For instance, I see no reason why Mr William Ruto cannot team up with Ms Martha Karua.

When you think about it, this would be a win-win situation for both politicians and their communities.
Apart from an early election, the other alternative is a civilian coup.

In this scenario, ODM would table the Bomas constitution in parliament and transfer executive powers to the PM.

At least this would fill the power vacuum. Besides, it has always been Mr Odinga’s preferred system of government.

And since a man is not judged by his intentions, but by what he finishes, he should complete this Bomas ‘project’. Or what do you think, Mr Odinga?

Mr Mutahi Ngunyi is a political scientist with The Consulting House, a policy and security think-tank for the Great Lakes region and West Africa.



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