Speculations as to whether Uhuru will indeed run for presidency have been doing rounds for a while now. Uhuru himself has done nothing to quell the speculations, a good political tactic, keep your enemies
guessing. 

His ally William Ruto on the other hand has been more forthcoming, declaring that he indeed will run for presidency. He cemented this by unveiling the party he intends to use as a vehicle to get him to state house. 

But the ICC cases they are facing have thrown a spanner in the works. The ambitions of the duo, implicit or explicit have been blighted by the ICC cases. This is casting a long dark shadow over their future in Kenyan politics.

It is a mixed bag of fortunes for Uhuru and Ruto as far as the ICC process goes and of particular significance was the government’s ill fated attempt of shuttle diplomacy to have the ICC hand back the cases
for local trial even without structures in place to try the suspects. 

The infamous round the world tour by the VP Mr Kalonzo Musyoka  resulted in an endorsement by AU to have the cases tried in Kenya but this had no material significance, none whatsoever on the ICC process. 

You’d think the government learnt a lesson or two from this but that isn’t the case. 

Now there is the belated last ditch attempt again by the government to have the cases tried by an expanded East African Court. 

This amidst preparation by the Ocampo four to head to the Hague on June 12 for the preparatory conference where the rules of engagement will be laid down.

I sense desperation and frustration by the government and the Uhuru-Ruto camps who are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the ICC and why wouldn’t they? 

The ICC is beginning to look like a moving target for them and they just can’t pin it down. A series of rulings by the court have rebutted any efforts to have the cases pulled out of its jurisdiction. The cases the court ruled must now proceed to full trial.

Why is all this relevant you might ask? For me, the ICC intrigues and now the decision by Sabatia MP and DPM Musalia Mudavadi to run for presidency completes the jig saw; we can now see the big picture. 

Surely, one would like to imagine that Ruto and Uhuru must have received counsel that there is a chance that they might walk free hence all the effort they have put into the case. So far, in its 10 year existence the court has only managed one conviction. 

On the 14th of March this year, the court found a Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga guilty of war crimes, recruiting  children into his movement. 

This record is good news for the OCampo four. But if their counsel is fair, they will also inform the OCampo four that there is also a chance that they will be found guilty on some if not all the allegations leveled against them. 

For Ruto and Uhuru, this outcome will effectively end any dream of ascending to the highest office in the country, the presidency. But that is not the worst part of the story, what about their economic interests? The ICC is clear on this; they will forfeit all they own as reparations for the victims. 

Clearly in the event of a guilty verdict, they stand to lose more than just their freedom. Add to that Raila’s presidency and it becomes an even bigger nightmare and a double whammy for them and that’s why Uhuru and Ruto will do anything and everything to stop Raila’s ascendancy to the high office. This they have made it clear they will

It is this scenario that led me to conclude that Mudavadi’s entrance into the presidential race is clearly a backup plan for the Uhuru-Ruto alliance in the event that the worst case scenario, a conviction by the ICC was to eventuate. They want someone who they can trust, manipulate, someone who can protect their own interests and someone who shares a history with them. Who better than the Sabatia MP Musalia Mudavadi? 

As it stands now, Uhuru and Ruto know as much as Mudavadi does that on his own, he stands no chance of beating Raila. But throw in full support from Rift Valley and Central, split the Western and Coast vote and you begin to see how potentially Mudavadi can end Raila’s long held ambition of becoming Kenya’s president. 

By supporting Mudavadi’s presidential bid, and this I suspect is the eventual game plan, Uhuru and Ruto have in him a close friend who will protect their own interests and who could potentially if he becomes president refuse to cooperate with the ICC. 

I see Mudavadi’s entrance into the presidential race foray as the first chapter of grand scale political machinations by Uhuru and Ruto.

Gitaa Nyasani

My fellow Star columnist Charles Mzee recently wrote that one Maina Njenga, former supreme leader of the 'Mungiki' terror squads and now a born-again Christian, was likely to be one of the key factors in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

He then presented a historic, as well as a sociological account of why the increasing polarisation of the people of Central Province into a small, selfish and manipulative group of "haves" and a very large, dispossessed, and previously easily manipulated group of "have nots" would reach a point of resolution, one way or another, in the 2012 elections.

And that Njenga, as the undisputed leader of the "have nots", would be the single most important person in that crucial election.

At least, that is what I understood Mzee to say in that column.

While I largely agreed with his detailed assessment of why the "have nots" of Central Province have had a raw deal going back to the Mau Mau insurrection of the 1950s, I will only believe in Njenga's reputed massive political influence after I have seen it in action.

Our short history of multiparty democracy has provided many cases of political leaders who seemed to have irresistible influence, but were later found to be incapable of delivering much in the way of presidential votes cast in the millions, or constituencies swept by the dozen.

My focus for that election is therefore more on the Rift Valley, and on the epic battle shaping up between the Agriculture minister William Ruto and the Moi dynasty as represented by the former President and his son Gideon Moi.

And the seriousness of this battle is shown in that it has so far involved not showcase political rallies with dozens of Cabinet ministers and other VIPs in attendance, but rather steady and systematic grassroots campaigns.

Also in that neither side ever acknowledges the other, nor yet hurls insults at the other, but each just goes about making friends and influencing people with quiet determination.

It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of this political battle for the former President. It is in its own way just as important as the ba¬tles he fought to remain Vice President in the late 1970s, when it was clear that Jomo Kenyatta could not live very much longer.

I would put it this way: while Ruto could lose this battle to the Moi dynasty and still be around to fight again in 2017 - even if he lost his own Eldoret North Constituency seat - for the Moi dynasty it is do-or-die in this next campaign.

Think about it: for almost half a century, going back to the old pre-independence Legislative Council of colonial times, Moi was the undisputed political leader of the Kalenjin community. Then came the 2007 General Election and of three sons of the former President who tried their luck, none won a parliamentary seat.

If the Moi dynasty is again whitewashed in this manner - and this time specifically by Ruto - what chance is there that they can recover from this devastating blow. How would any Moi son ever dare offer himself again as a candidate for Parliament?

So it is virtually guaranteed that the Moi family is not going to be holding anything back this time. And they have the advantage of being the outsiders at present. They have all the time in the world to go about their work of winning enough support on the ground to ensure that when it really matters, Ruto will find that he actually does not command the unquestioning loyalty of the Kalenjin community as his hangers-on are inclined to claim.

And this, as it happens, is precisely how elections are won in Kenya — and why there is such a huge turnover in parliamentary representation in this country.

The sitting MP, whether serving in the Cabinet or sitting quietly on the back-benches, will usually have all sorts of things to attend to: parliamentary sittings; committee meetings; seminars; tours (both local and international); and the conspiratorial conclaves at which, increasingly, the outcomes of votes in Parliament are determined.

Meantime the challenger has none of these things to worry about: he or she can just quietly go about the business of meeting voters and listening to their problems; coming up with well-timed initiatives to show that he is "development conscious", etc.

So if I was asked to place a bet on the eventual outcome of the political struggle in the Rift Valley, I would bet my few shillings that the Mois will win and Ruto will lose.

Muga comments on topical issues.

JUDGES will in February decide whether to stop a Sh96 million KPC land case against Agriculture Minister William Ruto.

Judges Jane Gacheche, Leonard Njagi and Roselyne Wendoh yesterday set the verdict date for February 2.

This follows the final submissions from Ruto's lawyer Katwa Kigen.

Kigen said Ruto has asked the high court to stop the case.

He had argued that the case was instituted by Attorney General Amos Wako for ulterior motives.

But Wako said the land sold to the Kenya Pipeline Company by Ruto and his company, Berke Commercial Agencies, was a forest reserve not available for alienation.

State lawyer Vincent Wohoro told the court that the parcel in Ngong' Forest sold to KPC was public land.

The excision, he added, was unlawful because the parcel had not been degazetted. The parcel was sold to KPC through Berke Commercial Agencies whose director is Ruto.

The minister wants the high court to end criminal proceedings at the chief magistrate court, where he has been accused of obtaining Sh96 million by false pretense from the finance manager of Kenya Pipeline Company.

Ruto and Berke Commercial Agencies are challenging the Sh96 million case preferred against the two at the magistrate's court.

Ruto was charged with receiving Sh9.9 million from Hellen Njue, then financial manager of KPC, saying he was in a position to sell 4.31 acres that belonged to the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources.

He is alleged to have received another Sh57.8 million for the sale of two parcels and another Sh28 million for a parcel in the same forest.

He is allegedly to have obtained the money on pretense that he was in a position to sell land though it is owned by the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources.

Ruto, a company associated with him, Berke Commercial Agencies; a former aide of retired President Daniel Moi, Joshua Kulei; and two other companies have been sued for allegedly obtaining money from Kenya Pipeline Company in 2001

THE hearing of an injunction that has stalled a Sh96 million corruption case against Agriculture minister William Ruto for five years began yesterday.

The minister and eight others were charged in 2004 with obtaining Sh9,916,830 part of the total sum from Kenya Pipeline Company finance manager by pretending he was in a position to sell land belonging to the Environment Ministry.

The 1.745 hectares land is situated within Ngong Forest.

But the minister rushed to the high court and filed the constitutional application challenging the criminal proceedings at the chief magistrate's office.

He told a three-judge bench yesterday that he is a stranger to the case and cannot be held liable because all the actions and decisions that led to the sale were approved by the government.

Through his lawyer Katwa Kigen, the minister argued that his right to secure protection of the law is violated.

He said he did not receive any monies, as evidence adduced in court shows that the money from KPC went into Kenya Times account and not his.

In the magistrate court, Ruto is accused together with former president Moi personal aide Joshua Kulei, Baringo Central MP Sammy Mwaita, Sovereign Group Limited, Berke Commercial Agencies, Priority Limited, Celtic Multy stems and Somog and Limited.

But the minister argued that the accusations have been brought based on discrimination and out of malice.

Although he is making a mighty effort to portray an image of one unflapped by the avalanche of accusations roaring down his way, Agriculture minister William Ruto is deep inside feeling the steady tightening of the noose around his neck.

And with only two or three MPs showing signs they are willing to stick their necks out for him to the bitter end, it is increasingly becoming apparent that it is just a matter of time before the man finds himself on the drying line.

This because unlike the abstract affair of the Waki Report that has left Ruto running scared albeit with a room to wriggle out, the maize scam matter has what those levelling the charges against him say is tangible and damning evidence enough to make his noon look like night.

The onslaught on Ruto over the maize scandal intensified last week, causing the minister quite some low spirits and depression. Sources close to the minister have since intimated that he is now blaming his woes on political differences within ODM.

They say on Wednesday when Ikolomani MP Bonnie Khalwalwe now commonly referred to the "people's bull" due to his fight for the poor against corruption by the mighty, Ruto called a senior employee at his Amaco Insurance based at Trans National house and is said to have directed him to find out who had leaked e-mail communication between Al Champdany Industries Limited and Silas Simatwo, a senior manager at the insurance company.

The minister is also said to have called Joshua Kulei a former powerful member in the Kanu regime last week and discussed the maize scandal. Controversy surrounds who owns Milling Corporation, a company that was also allocated maize by the National Cereals and produce Board (NCPB). The firm is based in Nakuru.

It has further emerged that one of the beneficiaries of the maize scam has bought a Kenya Airways hostess Diana Chebet a sports Range Rover. Chebet who stays in Lavington was in the news recently on matters relating to Nigerian drug dealer Ken Ombino who was deported from the country.

Back to Kulei, it is imperative to note he was one of ODM financiers who channeled his money through Ruto and even backed Samuel Mwaita to defeat Gideon Moi in Baringo Central Parliamentary Seat.

That Ruto is worried is well explained when come last week he called a press conference to defend himself.

In a statement released to the press the minister claimed all maize released by the NCPB was paid for and not a single bag was sold without the authority of the board of trustees.

Ruto further claimed he was neither a director nor employee of Amaco and the company did not inquire, tender for supply any gunny bags to NCPB.

Amaco Insurance Company was formed when Ruto enjoyed State House links during the reign of former President Daniel Arap Moi. It had on its list of clients big time government institutions including the military.

Shareholders of the company include Ruto and Joubert and Borman Limited a company in which Ruto and his wife own majority of shares. Another shareholder is Silas Kibet Simatwo, a well known wheeler dealer.

The said Simatwo the man in-charge of running Amaco was out to get Kickbacks from the gunny bags deals at the Minister's behest. The amount involved in the deal ran into millions.

Weekly Citizen has obtained a copy of an e-mail from AI champdany Industries Limited who claim to be a trading house recognized by the government of India. It is addressed to M/s African Merchant Assurance Company Ltd Kenya. Attention to Silas Simatwo the Managing director.

It states, "Ref our telcom, as desired by you we now offer for 90 kg bags instead of 50kg bags requested earlier as under. We offer 2 million jute bags 112 CMs x 67.5 HD100 gms/bag plus/ minus 50gms 76x28 threads per DM. 3 blue stripes heracle sewn SOOpcs/ bale at USD 0.97 per bag...... Our offer is valid up to 31/7/2008 for your reply.

It is signed by a one N Pujara and copied to the High Commissioner of India to Kenya.

Weekly Citizen has established that it is true the said e-mail was received by the Indian High Commissioner. It is dated 26.7.2008.

Come July 30, 2008, Simatwo wrote to Pujara as follows, "Dear Mr. Pujara, our conversation refers. I am in receipt of your fax which contains your company price guide. Other Indian companies have given their prices to Cereals Board.

One of the most competitive of them is already in Nairobi for negotiations. They already have an agent in Nairobi who has approached me to front for them. I would however prefer to use my vantage position to work directly with you which is why I would prefer you urgently come over to Nairobi. This morning I had a meeting with both the minister and the Cereals Board MD. We resolved that I ask you to urgently come over so that we finalize the deal. Kindly expedite."

Questions are being asked as to why Simatwo popularly known as SS who is not a civil servant was brokering the deal.

Two, why Ruto and NCPB Managing Director Prof. Gideon Misoi held a meeting with SS lobbying AI Champdany Industries to supply gunny bags.

Documents in our possession show 10 companies were interested is the supply of gunny bags to NCPB. They were Budge Badge JT, AI Champadany Industries, Anglo India Jute Mills Ltd, Naffar Chandra Jute Mills, Ludlow Ltd, Giant Industries and Hawrah Mills Company Ltd.
To make a kill from the tender, Ruto and Prof Misoi manipulated the board not to offer the tender to the firm with the best price.

It is imperative to note Hawrah Mills Company had offered the price of US dollars 0.965 which was equivalent to Sh62.725 then. AI Champadany quoted US dollars 0.97 that is Sh63.05. The same was quoted by Murridhar Ratanial Exporters.

It is emerging, brokers with Ruto's blessings made sure companies that had oiled palms were awarded each to supply 1 million bags.

They were Howrah Mills, Murlidhar Ratanial and of course AI Champdany industries which is said to have parted with a hefty amount.

Come to maize allocations the puzzle of the missing 1 million bags is still lingering. It is worth noting, as per June last year, the strategic reserves had 2.6 million bags but Ruto is only able to account for 1.6 bags.

Documents we have raise queries on the manner in which companies were allocated maize. For example B2K Ltd based on Cannon Towers II 5floor Bandari Wing Mombasa in a letter to NCPB sales manager dated 15"1 September 2008 states. 'This is to confirm that we will pay for the 7500 bags allocated to Agrillion Solutions. We therefore request the sales order be written to Buzeki Enterprises Ltd. The cheque reference number is 102833.

It is emerging that companies, that were allocated but unable to pay transferred to others.
Ruto's personal Assistant Simeto Oscar on 5th November 2008 wrote to Prof. Gideon Misoi on Ruto's official Letterhead stating: "Ref: purchase of 1000 bags of maize by Robinson Mbugua Nene. The letter reads, "The Hon. Minister for Agriculture requests you to assist Robinson
Mbugua Nene purchase 1000 bags of maize from the National Cereals and produce Board."

Afritrack Support is one of the briefcase companies that were allocated maize. Controversy surrounds the manner in which Wasso Investment Ltd with box number 608-00517 was awarded 20,000 bags of maize.

A letter signed by Rehema G. Galgalo reads, "We wish to buy 20,000 bags of maize from
your organization. We run a milling firm in Isiolo district and due to persistent drought there
is acute food shortage in the region."

Instead of the 20,000 bags asked for, only 10,000 bags were approved. Uhuru Kenyatta is said to have pushed for the allocation.

Kapsoit Millers of Box 598 Kericho was allocated 10,000 bags as per request of one Robert Kipyegon.

Shabab Millers who claim to be based in Northern Kenya with branches in the entire region with headquarters on Uganda House, Kenyatta Avenue Nairobi requested 50,000 bags. A one Ahmed Elyass is the Managing Director.

Agrilion Solutions with no physical address giving address number 48994 Nairobi through a letter signed by Willy Bett was allocated 10,000 bags. Part of the letter Bett wrote to NCPB reads, "We subcontract the milling services to companies which we have longstanding relationship."

On 1 September 2008, Vicky Chebet Kones using her links in the political world request to purchase 5,000 bags of white maize.

Her controversial letter states, "I would like to purchase 5,000 bags of maize to be distributed to needy Kenyans in Baringo and West Pokot. If my request is accepted, I will collect the maize from the most convenient depot. Kindly assist me in any way possible."

Five thousands bags were approved with the MD NCPD approval. She sold the maize instead of distributing to needy Kenyans.

Another fake company that benefited is Kunouz (K) Ltd. Abrahim Limo the Managing Director wrote on 24th July 2008 requesting to shift point of collection from Bungoma to Kitale depot after he failed to get a buyer miller.

The letter reads," Further to your letter of allocation Ref. NCPD/SALES/19/V/503 of 8000 bags Ex-Bungoma silos. We wish to kindly request for change of allocation point to Kitale depot.

Sir, we are being compelled by our logistical reasons to request for the same. We are ready, willing and able to pay for the entire quantity at Kitale prices and if possible be 50 Kg bags instead of 90Kgs."

The request was approved. But perhaps the most controversial was the request by Western Regional Millers Company Limited. Through a one PMM Musindi the chairman, they requested for the purchase of 50,000 bags of maize.

On 28th August 2008, Saino Commercial Agencies through the director James C. Koske was allocated 20,000 bags. Koske is said to have sold the maize to Southern Sudan. Koske dealings were facilitated in Kericho.

Saino Commercial whose address is Nairobi but has no physical location claims in the request letter to be a reputable company dealing with dry foodstuffs.

A note on the request letter says "Hon. Ruto called and was approved.

Other millers caught in the saga are Mamlaka Millers Ltd based in Athi River, Summer Millers of Ruiru, Jakisa Distributors, Mrs Esther Kigo of Box 6164 Nairobi, Kilalani Millers, Nangat Trading Company of Saidi Ahmed, Ruiru Company associated with Praful Shah, one Nichorus K. Mwenda of Mem Millers and Chemco feeds (K) Ltd of Nairobi Kariobangi North with request letter signed by Gakere Mwangi the general manager.

Uasin Gishu politician Jackson Kibor through Mafuta Farm was awarded 100,000 bags raising eyebrows. It is suspected that Kibor entered into maize business deal with Ruto on 50-50 share basis. He sold on behalf of the minister to avoid conflict of interest. Oscar Sudi a close ally of Ruto is also caught in the scam.

It has also emerged that aware the issue was to boil in parliament, Ruto working together with Budalangi MP Ababu Namwamba and Cherengany MP Joshua Kutuny worked on a list that Namwamba was to table in the house.

The idea was to shift the attention of Kenyans from Khalwale's list by introducing the First Lady Lucy Kibaki to the maize saga. But the acheme exploded in their faces.The move did not work well as Namwamba who had been hosted in Ruto Eldoret North Constituency found himself in trouble.

By late last week Ruto and his allies, Namwamba and Kutuny were blaming top ODM luminaries for using the maize scam to bring down Ruto due to his rising political star.

They are asking why Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Musalia Mudavadi have not come out in open to defend Ruto either in parliament or in public function.

Jeff Koinange, former CNN journalist, now in Kenya's K24 television station is back, with a bang.

In just three days, he has interviewed, William Ruto, Bonny Khalwale and Ababu Namwamba, all key players in the Maize Scandal. His interviews are generating news and rejoinders all over.

Last night it was Ababu Namwamba's turn "on the bench", coined from the outdoor bench where Jeff conducts his interviews.

Facts as per Ababu Namwamba

Khalwale a hired musketeer
Ababu claimed that Khalwale is bent on sanitizing some politicians and incriminating Ruto for political gain of his hirees.

Ababus supports establishment of a local tribunal to try post election violence masterminds

"Let us act local but leave room for the Hague to move in if someone plays monkey business. The process marred by 2012 succession. Extremely difficult for this bill to be passed".

Jeff Koinange of K24's Capital Talk is back, on the bench.

William Ruto, the embattled Minister for Agriculture is all over the media giving interviews to all who care to listen.

Puzzling is Ruto's allegation on Capital Talk that the witch hunt to finish him is orchestrated by one Martha Wangari Karua and it is all about 2012 politics. Ms Wangari allegedly met with Ruto at one of her friends place where she advanced the idea of cooperating for with Ruto to secure the 2012 elections. Ruto had not time for such nonsense. Wangari is avenging and clearing her way to succeed Emilio Kibaki. What better way than to use the maize scandal and current famine to finish off this "front runner". For this reason among others W. Lord Ruto will not resign or step aside to facilitate investigations.

Martha was also accused of orchestrating a finishing-off netball for Amos Kimunya.

The more W. Lord Ruto denies his hand in the maize scandal the more he makes us believe that where there is smoke there is fire. His picking of Martha Karua is bound to generate heat in the coming weeks. the fact that he did not refer to Oburu Odinga, Raila's elder brother, whose viewpoint is close to Martha's on the maize scandal is telling. Neither did he go vicioulsy for Dr Khalwale's jugular as he did for Martha.

But Ruto is one of the sacred cows in this coalition who must be handled with extreme care for he is brittle. He is not any other sacrificial lamb entwined in a bush waiting to secure Isaac from the Abraham's knife. Some councillors from Nakuru made this point clear last week. So has a large section of Rift valley allied MPs.

Raila knows all to well who holds him by the balls. He has not moved with spped to investigate the maize scandal the way he did with the Grand Regency saga where he formed a committee at 4, committee met at 5 and by 7 the report and verdict was ready for the 9 o'clock news. Orengo, the accuser chaired the committee. You would expect him to appoint Dr Khalwale to chair the maize scandal committee. No, the investigations will be done by an international forensic expert to peruse all NCPB financial transactions, not a boardroom consensus like the Grand regency one. Whether the forensics scope will include Public Ethics Act provisions is another issue.

Ruto does not mind the Hague or the tribunal. Any of those is game for him, he says. As long as there is no selective justice. That means he must be taken with the clear label of "This side up". Selective justice will be applied if he is taken to the Hague or tribunal while those who stole the election or manipulated the process or the outcome or whose inaction caused the violence are not apprehended as well. Going by Ababu's allegations last week, it is easy to guess what Ruto is implying. Afterall Ababu is now available for higher, isn't he?

Drive into Kenya's National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), the government body in charge of maize/grain storage.

Order 100,000 bags of maize at a cost of Kshs 1,750. Make a call to a maize miller and offer to sell 100,000 bags of maize at the price of Kshs 2,600. Advise the miller to make two cheques, preferably bank transfers. First, a cheque/transfer of Kshs 85,000,000 to you and another Kshs 175,000,000 to NCPB. Do not waste energy pondering how come the government through the NCPB bought the maize at more than Kshs 2,600 per bag.

Give instructions to NCPB managers to release to the miller the 100,000 bags of maize you have just ordered and bought.

Drive out of NCPB and enjoy your hard earned sweat money.

For the plan to work effectively, ensure there is a call from the Ministry of Agriculture to the NCPB managers prior to your arrival or arrive armed with a hand written note on the Ministry of Agriculture's letter head.

Why are you poor, oh ye Kenyans of little ideas.