What the US Ambassador thought of Kenyan Election Opinion Polls in 2007

Posted on 10 February, 2013

The US Embassy in Kenya - Michael Ranneberger was the ambassador then - sent a cable to Washington on the opinion polls subject on November 14 2007.

The opinion polls then showed that Raila Odinga was ahead with a wide margin in the 2007 presidential race and Mwai Kibaki was lagging behind. The US embassy quietly advised the opinion pollsters to change their methodology to reflect voter distribution and turnout rates after which the race became a close contest between the two presidential candidates.

The 2013 opinion polls have elicited huge debates as to their authenticity and reflection of the reality on the ground. They have been showing Raila Odinga is leading the contest though his margin has been diminishing by the day and Uhuru Kenyatta is closing in.

Speculations are rife that as we approach March 4th it will be a neck to neck race between Raila and Uhuru with a possibility of Uhuru leading in the opinion poll race and final ballot.

This could also have informed the aggressive reaction by the West reiterating that they will not deal with the ICC suspects if they win and threatening unspecified consequences and sanctions if the ICC duo wins. Uhuru supporters believe the West is after a Raila presidency and that their statements are geared towards influencing the Kenyan public against voting for Uhuru.

The 2007 cable cable was among the thousands that were released by WikiLeaks.

SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: POLLING MATTERS

¶1. (C) Our election analysis (reftels) indicates a close race for the presidency. This analysis is based on voter registration data and traditional turnout rates as well as polling on presidential candidate preferences. We were concerned that widely published public opinion polls, which showed ODM's Raila Odinga well ahead of President Kibaki, did not accurately reflect the true status of the contest. Given the rising political temperature, partially due to the use of blatant ethnic appeals by both sides, we were concerned about the reaction of ODM supporters should their candidate lose in a close outcome when they were led by public opinion polls to expect a landslide victory.

¶2. (C) The Mission quietly reached out to polling firms and their clients to suggest that poll sampling distribution should be based on the regional distribution of registered voters, not on raw population (there are wide variances in voter registration rates around the country, with the high population density areas, such as Kibaki's native Central Province, enjoying higher rates). Polling on this basis would be a more accurate predictor of the outcome. When one polling firm (Consumer Insights) then started limiting its respondents on political preference polls to those who could produce an actual voter identification card, the change was dramatic: Odinga: 41 percent, Kibaki: 40.6 percent. Once the Steadman Group re-distributed their sampling according to the August voter registration figures, the Kibaki/Odinga gap shrank from 11 points to 4 points: from 39 percent Kibaki, 50 percent Odinga to 41 percent Kibaki, 45 percent Odinga.

¶3. (SBU) The Electoral Commission of Kenya has now published the final voter registration figures. The major polling firms have all committed to adjust their sampling according to these figures and limiting responses to those who at least claim to be registered voters. The results of polls based on sampling that reflects the final voter registration figures will be available in about two weeks.