A Political Kenya: Latest Politics and Kenya Economy News

When Rev. Mutava Musyimi announced his sudden resignation as the secretary general of the influential National Council of Churches of Kenya (NCCK), many were quick to ask: What is he up to? Analysts were quick to speculate that the churchman was headed for a political career and that he would be vying for the Gachoka parliamentary seat in Mbeere district currently held by ODM-K’s presidential aspirant Joseph Nyagah.

Yet to many others a mere parliamentary seat would not be enough attraction to make one want to leave the more significant and much respected perch of NCCK top executive and hence the proximate guess: Is this man of the cloth eyeing State House?

The speculative guess is not without basis. In the last election and just before the Kibaki Tosha declaration, Musyimi’s name was variously floated as a possible compromise candidate of the joint opposition then coalescing under the umbrella of the National Alliance party of Kenya (NAK).

The equation only changed when Raila Odinga led a rebellion in Kanu and walked away with a splinter called the Rainbow Alliance which teamed with NAK to form the NARC coalition.

In an interview at the time, Musyimi admitted nursing presidential ambitions but said the “opportune time has never beckoned.” However, he admitted that had the opposition approached him at the time, he would have given the offer a “very serious consideration.”

If that be the case, the former NCCK boss who is a staunch supporter of President Kibaki, is training his ambition on 2012 when the incumbent retires, supposing that he is re-elected for a second term this year, or beyond. However, a stab at a parliamentary seat in 2007 election would give the man of the collar the much needed exposure in electoral politics.

But in an interview last month, Musyimi could not confirm or deny he was plunging into politics, less so admit he was eyeing the presidency.

Insisting that he had several options to toe with, Musyimi said he either could go back to mainstream church work or venture into business, among a couple of other options.

A source close to him however confided that Musyimi was definitely decided on joining politics.

“I guess he does not want to declare yet because technically he is still the NCCK secretary general until September but he is definitely headed for politics.”

The source told us that Musyimi had personally told him of his future plans way back in July last year. “He has his eyes on Gachoka but just as a stepping stone for bigger things”, said the source.

Musyimi whose term was to expire in December next year has been chief executive of the giant church body since 1993, when he took over from Samuel Kobia.

If he decides to join politics, Musyimi would certainly make use of many useful contacts made in his long tenure as NCCK secretary general and as senior Anglican clergy. For many years he was the priest in charge of the Nairobi Baptist Church on the secondment from the influential Anglican Church.

The senior position in the church network most likely has also earned Musyimi useful contacts abroad. This may come in handy should he embark on fund-raising to enhance his political adventures. He would also use the countrywide church network to woo voters.

Musyimi leaves NCCK on the positive side of the ledger having helped the council invest a total of Kshs 700 million in various commercial projects countrywide. They include the construction of a state-of-the-art headquarters for the church body, the Jumuiya place, along the city’s Lenana Road.

Away from NCCK, Musyimi is also chair of the National Anti-Corruption Steering Committee. He is also the chairman of a media outfit, the Distance broadcasting Limited, which runs a vernacular radio station, Mwaitu.

Sources say the clergyman would not immediately announce his intention to vie for the Gachoka seat as this could impact negatively on the process of recruiting his successor.

It could also antagonize some members of the council who would wish to have nothing to do with “partisan politics,” say sources.

Musyimi’s confidants say he would be joining politics on any party associated with his friend, president Kibaki.

He was appointed NCCK chief executive at the beginning of the crucial 1990s decade when the church and other religious groups played decisive roles in moments of crisis. They included agitation for the restoration of multi party democracy which invited ruthless clampdown from the then authoritarian Kanu government.

As the secretary general of NCCK and later chairman of the Ufungamano Review Initiative, the pries became and important player on the politics of change.

For long he was a leading player in the constitution making process. He was the chair pf the Ufungamano Constitution Review Initiative which merged with the Parliamentary Review Commission in late 2000 to avert a possible constitutional crisis.

Later he became a delegate at the Bomas Constitutional Conference but withdrew after three months reasoning that the parley had generated into an acrimonious House of Babel.

Of late he has been quoted as opposing the minimum reforms fronted by ODM-K and a section of the civil society. “There is nothing minimum about them. What is minimum to you maybe maximum to me,” he has been quoted sating.

Rev. Musyimi retires as the boss of NCCK at the age of 55. He has two grown children. His first daughter Mweni Nyokabi is a law graduate of University of Cardiff currently pursuing a masters degree at the Trinity Divinity School in Chicago while his younger son, Syano Musyimi, is completing his first year at the University of Southampton. His wife Nyambura is the principal partner at the law form Musyimi and Company Advocates.

When he openly plunges into Gachoka parliamentary politics, Musyimi will have to contend with clan politics but for a man of his sophistication he will most likely ignore this, market an alternative leadership, campaign on the platform of issues and let the electorate decide.

Like in 2002 when he maintained studious silence in the face of speculation that he had presidential ambitions he has again been evasive but his intentions fro Gachoka have been an open secret for months.

In 2002 he may not have been ready but Nyagah, the incumbent may have planted the seeds of his own political destruction by going against local convention wisdom. Silence or no silence, the man of the cloth appears set for the August house.

Musyimi has been involved in matters of public interest for most of the time he has served as the NCCK secretary general but it is his role in the constitutional review process that made his profile much higher than that of many ordinary clergymen.

His deft maneuvering in the process cast him as level headed, principled and unblemished middle-of-the roader who could be trusted across the ethnic divide. It is this profile that marked him as a possible compromise presidential candidate in 2002, and could again make it easier for him to remove the son of his father’s lifelong friend, Jeremiah Nyagah.

In a 2002 interview Musyimi hinted that he would probably have considered the idea of becoming a compromise opposition presidential candidate but insisted it was up to the then opposition parties to make that decision.

“I like the opportunity I have to be a secretary general of NCCK. It is a very privileged position and it would take a lot more fro me to resign from the job. I would have to be convinced that what I am going into has added value and that there are things I could do through that position that I cannot do here”, he said noncommittally.

He added rather tellingly that his wife and he had been praying about the idea of becoming the country’s president for five years following multiple requests to vie for the post from people from all walks of life, “but I do not think I have harboured presidential ambitions”.

That may now have changed
Rev Musyimi, is an ethnic Mkamba by birth, but he grew up in Mwea after his grandparents moved from Machakos to the then lower parts of Nyeri district (now Kirinyaga) in 1928 when his father was a small boy.

It was on the rice growing fields of Mwea at Riakanau that Musyimi’s grandparents became first generation Christians in the area in 1946 and renewed their marriage vows in church.

His parents also joined the church with his father becoming a lay leader of the Anglican Church. He later ventured in to politics becoming a councilor in the 1950s, a position he held for 25 years. The older man who was murdered in 1977, was a close friend of former minister and father of two sitting MPs, Jeremiah Nyagah.

Because of his father’s privileged position, the Musyimi family of eight children would annually attend what was then the Royal Show in Nairobi and one of the things that fascinated the young man were the military bands “because of the sense of order and majesty.” Possibly the priest will one day inspect a military guard of honour.

The language of instruction during the priest’s early learning was Kikuyu and his native Kikamba was not allowed which made Musyimi the fluent Kikuyu speaker he is today.

Musyimi sat his ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels at Kangaru School in Embu and did a Bachelor of Education degree course at the Kenyatta University.

“It was at Kenyatta in 1973 that I felt the call to the Christian ministry and after college I did quite a bit of volunteer work with the Baptist Church despite the fact that my background was Anglican,” the priest said in an interview five years ago.

He was later to serve the Nairobi Baptist Church for 14 years before joining the NCCK. Through the Baptist Church he did a Bachelor of Divinity course in London and later a master of Theology at the Trinity Divinity School, in Illinois, USA.

In the earlier interview, Musyimi was quoted as saying that he stopped being a ‘simple preacher’ and started tackling ‘social issues’ on coming back to Nairobi after the masters course and the controversial streak in him emerged in 1988, when he was one of those who vehemently opposed the government of former President Moi when it sought to remove the security of tenure of judges and the attorney general.

Before 1990, Mutava Musyimi was just another obscure preacher of a little known church, as the Daily Nation once categorized him. He always preached hard hitting prophetic sermons in the same breath as Presbyterian’s Rev. Dr. Timothy Njoya or Anglican Church’s Bishop David Gitari, boldly tackling the most sensitive social and political issues of the day.

But his homilies were never heard outside the walls of the Nairobi Baptist Church on Ngong Road. The media was yet to discover the intrepid young preacher. One day all that changed. The Kanu government had increasingly become draconian since 1982 when it made Kenya a de jure one party state and ruthlessly clamped down on dissent. Towards the end of the 1980s brutalized Kenyans became increasingly restive.

Open dissent at home and growing isolation by the international community made President Moi more sensitive and dangerous. Even within the institutional church which had increasingly assumed the role of the silenced opposition, individual clergymen, excepting the likes of iconoclastic Njoya, went silent. Only the very brave and reckless, so to speak, could openly criticize the excesses of the administration.

It was within the context of this oppressive atmosphere that this writer sat at the Baptist Church listening to Mutava tear at the excess of the Moi government. The congregation sat squirming in the pews, stunned by the audacity of their pastor, some possibly wishing they were not there to listen to what in officialdom would certainly be concluded as high treason.

I took notes and then after the sermon I approached the preacher to enquire whether he would find it objectionable if the contents of his sermon were published. He had no objection. When I filed the story the news editor would not publish it until he had contacted Mutava himself to ascertain that what was reported is what he said. It was headline news the next day and for a week Mutava went into hiding as the secret police looked for him everywhere. When he finally emerged Mutava had been transformed from an obscure preacher into an important newsmaker with every media house dispatching a reporter to the Ngong Road sanctuary every Sunday to look for important perspectives as the country went into political ferment in earnest.

Mutava Musyimi’s profile has been on the up and up since then. When he later succeeded the unassuming Rev. Samuel Kobia as the NCCK secretary general, Mutava became a truly important national player as he transformed the church lobby in to one of the prime movers of political change, especially in constitutional reform. At one point he was the chairman of the Ufungamano Initiative, the body formed by religious groups to spearhead constitutional review. It is when he was steering Ufungamano that his name was floated as a possible opposition compromise candidate when it appeared like politicians might not agree.

Mutava Musyimi is deceptively soft spoken. He has a facility with words and packages what he wants to say unambiguously when he wants to but can also be notoriously vague. He is also calculating, ambitious man, but this, too, is not something he flaunts. Unlike other people of his ambitions he has never overtly cultivated media attention.

The same streak appears to characterize everything he has done in life and people often misread his intentions again and again. When his spiritual mentor Bishop David Gitari became the head of the Anglican church, conventional wisdom seemed to point out to Mutava succeeding him as the bishop of the then Mt. Kenya East. Although Mutava had been a pastor in the Baptist Church, he had not renounced his Anglican roots. For a long time he pastured without being ordained and it was when Gitari was shifting base to Nairobi that an elaborate ordination ceremony, was done at Embu. Gitari presided over the event. Mutava however did not eek office of the bishop and continued in his job as secretary general of the NCCK.

His resignation from NCCK in an election year is very telling. Speculation has been rife for months that he would be going for the Gachoka parliamentary seat but, true to character, he has been circumspect when asked about it. If he joins parliamentary politics, it is unlikely that his intention is to return to the obscurity of the pre-1990 days. His sights must be trained very, very high and he has the calculating patience to wait to get there.

Why Mtukufu abandoned the “Project”

Jaramogi, Agwambo’s dear departed dad, wrote a bad tempered book called Not Yet Uhuru immediately after independence. In the book the then vice president said many things which made Project’s dad Jomo, who was then president, very angry.

In his sore displeasure Jomo cashiered Jaramogi and vowed he would make sure that he would never occupy the Big House on the Hill after he is gone to be with his ancestors.

In the book Jaramogi also said that Daniel arap Moi was like a giraffe which could see very far because the Good Lord gave it a long neck. That must be true because Daniel, against the tide of a spirited campaign to derail him, ended up at the big House and (mis)ruled us for 24 long years

His sight must have started failing because when he wanted to retire to Sacho to look after his goats he decided to pass fimbo ya nyayo to Uhuru. Kenyans could see what he couldn’t see and would not let him and that is how Emilio ended at the Hill.

Even then Uhuru continued with the delusion that he was still Mtukufu’s project but the old man has of course moved on and has now adopted Emilio as his Project. “Now, why would he want to do that” a distraught Uhuru was heard lamenting recently when he learnt that he had been dumped for a septuagenarian. Methinks the son of Jomo was dumped because Mutkufu considers he has been keeping wrong company lately and Mtukufu doesn’t like people who keep bad company.

Alternatively, Mtukufu dumped Uhuru for Emilio because he needed an old man with whom he could talk old men’s things with. But I am persuaded that he was dumped for the simple reason that he was no longer a viable investment. People usually trash projects when they fail.

Steadman mirror, who is the fairest of them all?
Mr. Steadman had organized a beauty contest which was a dress rehearsal for the big one slated for December. There was Ms. Emiliano a veteran of the catwalk who also happens to be the reigning queen.

There was also Sis.Stepanie about whom it has been whispered that she has real pedigree and could easily turn tables on Emiliano and win the real thing at the end of the year. In past dress rehearsals she has stunned the judges with her striking figure and the way she grooms her hair, sometimes being voted the fairest of them. Mostly, though, she comes a close runner up to Emiliano. Her showing at the catwalk is perhaps one of thereason she has been walking with a spring in her stride.

Then there is Miss Tractor. She is a perennial contestant but doesn’t like the catwalk for some reason. Some say she is averse to strutting her stuff on the catwalk because she knows she could never possibly hope to match Emiliano or Sis. Stepanie’s looks. She is however on record as saying that it is not the catwalk she doesn’t like; it is Sis Stepanie because of the way she walks as if she thinks she is the only stunner.

There were others also but they were eliminated during the preliminaries. Miss Freedom was eliminated because she kept insisting that she had to have one Daniel Mtukufu to chaperon her onto the catwalk but that would have gone against the rules of the pageant.

Miss Rutan and another Miss Substonia were also there but not much can be said about them for now. And do you know what the verdict of the mirror was? That Emiliano, as expected, is still the fairest of them all but that Miss Tractor was now fairer than Sis Stepanie.

That doesn’t sound right but then beauty is in the eyes of…the mirror.

saistosaurus messes Emilio’s nice flower garden
Emilio’s nice flower garden is withering but then somebody’s orange orchard is wilting too. Emilio’s flower garden was doing very well before dinosaurs came crawling from the past. A species called saitosaurus which used to be rampant in the notorious Nyayo era was thought to be extinct.

After the end of the great golden harvest of the 90s, it persisted for a while but after the war of the fruits it was thought to have disappeared for ever never to be heard again. Then just when Emilio’s flower garden appeared to be thriving so well, out crawled the saitosaurus from the woodwork. The dinosaur said it had planted the seeds that brought forth the flowers before it ducked under when enemies of progress started a malicious rumour that the dinosaur was a gold digger which went around carrying the precious stones in golden bags (which were provided by one Bro. Paul Kamlesh).

saitosaurus said it wanted its flower garden back which by then was being taken care by a medicine man called Kituyi. A karumesaurus, a stubborn dinosaur which refused to die out like the others, agreed. It had planted the seeds of the flower garden when it appeared like the rainbow dream they had all shared was about to be killed by a woman called Mama Rainbow, a collector of trophies.

You would think that Maina Kamanda would be sympathetic to dinosaurs which are trying to make a comeback but that is not the case. He announced last week that he will no longer contribute to the upkeep of the flower garden. Can’t blame him. Emilio’s nice flower garden seems to have turned into Jurassic Park.

It’s a hammer, I mean, hummer
Last week there was a talk of Agwambo’s hammer everywhere. Hammer? Yes, hammer, the wags confirmed to the curious. Tinga had imported a hammer from US of A (because the handles of those we import from China keep breaking) with which to pummel his fellow ODM pretenders to the Big House.

After decimating them (especially Bro. Steve kalonzo whom he would make sure would never enter another presidential beauty pageant), he will eventually use the mallet to chase Emilio out of the Big House.

Actually it is a Hummer, a car, not a mallet. Agwambo had gone to America recently to visit senator Barrack Obama, our very own son who has become a ‘celeb’ in Hollywood because he is ever so tall and handsome. Celebs in Hollywood ride around in Hummers and Cardillacs not in matatus and so Barrack must have been riding in one.

Barrack, like Agwambo, wants to be president (to succeed Dubya not Emilio) so if he was riding a Hummer he must have looked quite presidential in it because Agwambo asked how he could get one for himself to use as Railamobile when he kicks Emilio form the Hill. Somebody promptly gave him an old one that was clogging his garage.

Now, Kalembe Ndile, green with envy, says that Agwambo should hand the Hummer to the Speaker of the National Assembly because they recently passed a law which says only Francis Ole Kaparo is allowed to drive a Hummer. Well, that can’t be true because I hear Dennis Oliech has one and so does William Kabogo of Juja.

But if Kaparo wants it, it is stuck somewhere in the mud in the hills of Marakwet. He had taken it for a test ride before he attempts the Hill but did I hear somebody say one should not look a gift horse in the mouth? Well, it is a Hummer, not a horse.

Would they pay Aaron millions just to catch fish?
The other day I saw Justice Aaron Ringera on television jogging on the dance floor. Everybody else around him was dancing which can only mean either of two things.

Possibility number one: Aaron had strayed into the dance floor on his way to an aerobics class but I doubt that was the care because he was wearing a really nice suit and it was not a jogging suit.

Possibility number two is more plausible. Aaron has never been to a dance floor before and was confused about what he was supposed to do but then he seems to be confused about other things too. For example he sounded muddled about his job description as the director of KACC.

When he was done with jogging, Aaron sat down for a glass of something before getting up to address those who had been dancing. “Soon the Ndirector will m’be catching Mbig fish, small fish, fat fish and thin fish”, he announced to a confused audience before he strode back to the dance floor to continue with his jogging.

Many people do fishing. Some do it for sport, others do it as a hobby, those at the lakeside do it because Ugali needs mbuta to go down but Aaron was employed as a ghost buster (to chase and catch those Anglo Leasing spooks who spirited money from the treasury, naughty things).

Granted I have never seen his letter of appointment and job description but I doubt it says:

Job title: Ndirector of fishing.

Job description: To catch big fish, small fish, fat fish and thin fish.

They wouldn’t give him two and a half million shilling just to catch fish of whatever description, or would they?

Why deny a sleeping dog sleep?
Do you ever wonder what Kiraitu Murungi does with all the energy he used to expend hollering at real or imagined enemies before he had that ignominious fall from grace?

You might never know it for his silence, but he runs the ministry of Energy. He did not utter a word when the Kenya Power and Lighting company employees threw juvenile tantrums recently but that is what he does since Emilio picked him and dusted him from the dustbin he had thrown him.

He had been cashiered because he had allowed power to go to his head and had problems controlling what issued from his mouth but these days he is the very essence of humility, the epitome of reason in a profession with no rhyme nor reason (I mean politics not law although the difference is the same). Which only goes to prove that salvation is always nigh for the penitent.

Emilio is not yet convinced Chris Murungaru has reformed enough not to backslide into hubris but Chris, too, has become a voice of reason, no sweat.

House (of Babel) Speaker Francis Ole Kaparo seems to be hopelessly headed in the opposite direction though. One time it was thought he had found the truth. He woke up one day and announced to the whole world that he had a revelation that Members of Parliament were an irredeemable, slothful and avaricious lot, but already knew that. Now he has rediscovered that MPs might slothfully sleep in the house once in a while but that is because there is nothing else to do when sleep overwhelms them, and everybody should know that. In fact, adds Mheshimiwa Maoka Maore of Ntonyiri, it would be unethical not to sleep when one’s eyes droop. Well, let the sleeping dogs lie.

The sudden ostentatious display of wealth by Raila Odinga has left many baffled. Unbeknown to the public, Raila is a fabulously wealthy man with a personal fortune estimated to be in excess of Kshs. 4 billion. Read how the man who wants to be Kenya’s next president acquired his wealth which includes investments in the lucrative petroleum industry and in manufacturing.

How Raila acquired his billions

Raila Odinga’s big break came in 2001 soon after he led his party, NDP, into a merger with Kanu, the then ruling party. As Energy Minister in Moi’s government he was introduced to the family of Sheikh Abdukeder AlBakari, one of the richest families in Saudi Arabia with interests in petroleum drilling, petroleum exploration and export in the Middle East, Asia, USA and Africa.

Through the Saudi contacts, Raila was initiated into the lucrative world of oil business and soon enough he had joined the league of gig independent oil importers via his firm Pan African Petroleum Limited.

Industry sources say that one of the things that helped Raila make a quick buck in the oil business was a concessionary petroleum deal he struck with the Al Bakri Group where he was not only incorporated as a silent partner in the local arm of Al Bakri International but was also supplied with petroleum products from Saudi Arabia at subsidized prices which his firm would sell in the market at normal prices. That way, Raila was able to deftly beat the competition in oil business by occasional price undercutting.

While still Energy Minister, Raila re-established and nurtured his links with the Libyan government of Colonel Muammar Gadaffi where again he not only did good business in oil importation but also got substantial material support during the 2002 general elections.

Besides supporting Raila’s political causes, the Libyans also played a key role in stabilizing Raila in the oil business in a couple of ways. Industry sources say that between 2001 and 2002 when Raila served as Energy Minister, he received at least three consignments of petroleum products at very low prices which were later sold locally at market prices.

The overall turnover from the three Libyan consignments is reliably said to have been in the region of over half a billion shillings, a tidy sum of money in any language, enough to ensure that one crosses the Rubicon once and for all.

Raila’s enviable international links

Reliable sources say that Libyans bankrolled the Narc campaign with some US$ 3 million (about Kshs 210 million), thanks to Raila’s good contacts in the oil-rich land of Gadaffi. There is no doubt that if Raila becomes the ODM presidential candidate he can count on massive financial support from the Libyans once more.

Besides Libya, Raila enjoys good links with the South African government of Thabo Mbeki while in Nigeria he is known to have strong links with Olosegun Obasanjo, who was a close friend of Raila’s late father Jaramogi.

That Libyans, South Africans and Nigerians had enough confidence in Raila to channel campaign funds through him although he himself was not a presidential in 2002 is an indication of how highly regarded he is in some international circles.

Evidently, he could certainly count on even more enthusiastic support from his international contacts should he become the ODM presidential candidate.

For Raila, the linkage between politics and business went much deeper than petroleum business. It is significant that the Odinga family business, Spectre International Ltd, acquired the then state-owned Kisumu Molasses Plant soon after Raila started politically cooperating with Moi.

Raila has consistently argued that the acquisition of the molasses plant was a pure business deal “which had nothing to do with politics”, but his critics point out at the coincidence between the time his family acquired the parastatal and Raila’s shift of political alliance. It is highly unlikely –indeed one may even say impossible-that the Moi government would have sanctioned the Kisumu Molasses Plant deal at the time if Raila had not become an ally of Moi’s.

Former commissioner of Lands Sammy Mwaita offered to sell the 240 acres on which the Kisumu Molasses Plant is built to Spectre International on January 11, 2001 at a price of Kshs 3.6 million at a time when Odinga started working closely with Moi. By June of the same year, Raila was appointed to the cabinet and made Energy Minister.

Significantly, Spectre International had applied for the same land in a letter of February 18, 1999 but the request had been rejected by the government at the time.

Titles were prepared in favour of Spectre International on February 3, 2002 for a 99-year lease backdated to September 1, 2001 and the Odinga family was ready to laugh all the way to the bank.

When the Odinga family started the process that led to the acquisition of the Kisumu Molasses Plant in 2001, Raila had already established good business contacts in South Africa. Energem Resources Incorporated, an international firm quoted at the Toronto Stock Exchange, had been looking for an investment opportunity in Kenya for a long time and the Kisumu Molasses Plant appeared just right.

Soon after taking over the plant from the government, Raila struck a lucrative deal with Energem whereby the Canadian firm bought 55 per cent of the Kisumu Molasses plant. Sources say that the Odinga family was paid over US$ 5 million (about Kshs 420 million) to relinquish the control of the molasses plant. The Odinga family had paid only Kshs 3.6 million for the property.

The Canadians also ploughed in millions of dollars to rehabilitate the plant and it is today one of the largest manufacturing concerns in the country employing hundreds of people and producing at least 60,000 litres of industrial ethanol for local consumption and export.

Ethanol from the Kisumu Molasses Plant is used as a fuel additive in east and Central Africa. Among other products coming out of the plant include yeast, carbon dioxide alcohol and related industrial products.

A valuation of the plant carried out three three years ago placed the Kisumu Molasses Plant at US$100 million (Kshs 7 billion). With the Odinga family owning 40 percent of the plant, putting the family’s stake in the plant in the region of Kshs 7.8 billion. The remaining five per cent shares in the plant are owned by a development trust on behalf of the local community.

Besides Kenya where Energem is in partnership with Raila in the Kisumu molasses plant business, now renamed Kisumu ethanol Plant, other African countries where Energem’s presence is significant include Sierra Leone, Sao Tome, Congo Brazaville, Angola. Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chad and Central Africa republic.

Raila’s wealth at a glance

Company/Property	Estimated Worth
Spectre International Limited (the holding company for Kisumu Ethanol Plant)	Kshs 7 billion of which Odinga family owns 40 per cent whose value is approximately Kshs 2.8 billion
East African Spectre (the gas cylinder manufacturing plant founded by Raila’s late father)	Kshs 500 million
Raila’s family home in Karen Nairobi	Kshs 50 million
Runda House	Kshs 15 million
Pan African Petroleum Company (the firm through which the Odinga family imports and distributes petroleum products)	Has had a turnover in excess of Kshs 500 million

Scheming that changed Raila’s fortunes

By the time Jaramogi Oginga Odinga died in January 1994, the Odinga family could have been described as just another average middle class family struggling to make ends meet on meager resources.

East Africa Spectre Limited, the family business flagship, was teetering on the verge of a precipice, thanks to political interference leading to bad business and crippling debts.

Raila Odinga’s house in Runda estate was a typical middle class house neighbouring that of self-exiled publisher Pius Nyamora.

But all that suddenly changed in 2001 when Raila shifted political alliances, ditched the opposition and teamed up with President Moi’s Kanu to form what was then known as Kanu-NDP merger.

Soon thereafter, he was appointed Minister of energy and turned a new leaf in his life. With his friend Mark Too, then one of the most powerful personalities around Moi’s state house, holding his hand, Raila was quickly introduced to the world of big business from which he has never looked back.

Indeed, looking back at the kind of fortune Raila managed to accumulate as well as the business links he established during the one year or so he was Energy minister, one comes to the inescapable conclusion that contrary to the conventional wisdom prevailing then, Raila’s rapprochement with Moi was a pure business decision. The man may have made calculated moves knowing only too well that without good money even the best politician might not go very far in achieving his or her dreams.

It is thus not surprising – nor is it by accident – that as Raila prepares himself to make his most serious bid for the presidency, he stands out as one of the richest politicians in the country with a personal fortune estimated to be over Kshs 4 billion besides reported investments in real estate in South Africa and Dubai.

Raila, a calculating schemer, could not have failed to notice the most common denominator between all the three politicians who rose to the presidency; money.

Jomo Kenyatta may not have had tones of money when he became president because he had the benefit of being associated with independence and nationalism. However, when he became president, he moved quickly to amass wealth which he used effectively to sustain himself in power.

His successor, Daniel arap Moi was already a very wealthy man-though discreetly so-when he became president in 1978. And throughout his presidency, Moi used money as his primary tool of political control.

When Kenneth Matiba challenged Moi in 1992 and came second in the presidential elections, it was clear that part of Matiba’s most formidable arsenal was an apparently inexhaustible war chest. Without the kind of money he had at his disposal, there is no doubt Matiba would not have come that close to kicking Moi out of state house.

Another serious challenger to Moi was Mwai Kibaki who came second in the 1997 presidential race. Again Kibaki, like Matiba before him, was not only wealthy in his own right but had a retinue of rich supporters around him who ensured that his campaign machinery was financially well oiled.

It is against this kind of a back ground that Raila must have made the conscious decision in 2001 to drop all pretensions, embrace Moi and make as much hay as he could while the sun shone for he knew well that money is a politician’s best friend, especially one who aspires for the presidency.

For quite sometime, many Kenyan politicians have been dismissing or supporting the outcome(s) of the Steadman Research Group poll ratings. A very good example was the low ratings in 2002 of then presidential contender and current Opposition Leader, Uhuru Kenyatta. He predictably lost his bid, despite having vehemently denied and dismissed that he was far behind current President Mwai Kibaki. These ratings, whether flawed or accurate, continue to shape the opinion of many Kenyans about the type of leaders they want.

The latest opinion polls published in the main Kenyan newspapers on April 1, 2007, have rated President Kibaki far ahead of other presidential candidates, proving that he is “electible”. He has still floored the ODM-K (Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya) leading contenders, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka. Raila, who has opposed many past outcomes of the Steadman polls, has for the first time acknowledged them, probably because he is currently the most highly rated among other ODM-K presidential candidates. In terms of ratings, there is no argument; Kibaki beats all and sundry by taking the 51% lead. The polls have posed yet more challenges to the ODM-K who chart better winning strategies. Kibaki's ratings have risen sharply in the rural parts of the Central, Eastern, Rift Valley and the North Eastern Provinces. The Rift Valley is a leader in the high number of voters in Kenya, so the opposition needs to work hard in capturing them.

The rural folk as key voters

Kibaki has a stronghold in the rural areas that back him because he has revived the collapsed agricultural services and many farmers now get paid in time for their farm produce. These rural folk also enjoy the benefits of CDF (constituency development funds) and are happy about the presidential appointments of their own brothers and sisters to the Cabinet and other plum jobs, among other things. These “politically unadulterated” people are thankful to Kibaki because their children go to school without paying fees. This has eased their former heavy burden of scrapping around for money, which included selling their meager properties. Their profits can therefore be used to improve their farming or get invested elsewhere.

It is a general tendency worldwide for the incumbent to retain office. If elections were held in Kenya today, chances are that Kibaki would defeat the opposition candidate(s). The next results of the Steadman polls might tilt once ODM-K nominates its presidential candidate. The opposition stronghold is in Nairobi, some urban areas, the Luo-Nyanza, and sections of the Coast and Western Provinces. However, if the opposition leaders wish to be favored, they should work very hard to woo the rural folk in those areas supporting Kibaki.

The opposition needs a winning formula

Despite other weaknesses in Kibaki's rule (quite visible among his handlers), he has achieved a lot in his macro-economic politics by reviving some collapsed industries, creating various funds targeting constituencies, women and the youth etc. The trickle down effect might take longer, but it will eventually be felt, if channeled properly. Kenya is once again in the good books of the World Bank, which recently offered the government billions of shillings for its fight against corruption and to improve security. If this money is used appropriately, many voters will be happy and might even vote Kibaki back.

Since the general elections are a few months away, there are a lot of political maneuvers by the government to stay on top. These are clearly seen in top job appointments either favoring people from the President's region, or those whom he perceives to be loyal to him. His GNU (government of national unity) is mainly for political survival. By bringing in Kanu and Ford People inside his Cabinet, Kibaki has won the sympathy of constituents that feel their bothers and sisters have been “remembered”; he has bought their loyalty. This is probably why the North Eastern province is supporting him in the current Steadman polls. The downside of these political machinations is the death of multiparty politics, because he has managed to silence Kanu, which is the official Opposition Party. The poor rating of Uhuru Kenyatta in the polls proves it too.

There is evidence that the allocation of public funds and other services do not favor perceived opposition areas like the Luo-Nyanza and parts of Western Province. An example is last year’s imbalanced budgetary allocation by Simeon Nyachae, the Roads and Public Works Minister. He disbursed very little money to improve the roads in key opposition areas, though he defended by answering that they were already being funded from other sources. This is unfortunate because president Kibaki promised not to block the development progress of areas that are politically against him. To prove that he is a true national leader, Kibaki should launch major projects in these big provinces that are also very poor, especially the Luo-Nyanza. By doing so, he can shake the opposition kingpin Raila Odinga, because he would be directly playing a hand in his province’s development.

However, by physically shying away and using the only Luo in his cabinet, Foreign Minister Rafael Tuju, he is missing out on all those potential votes he may get in this hotbed of politics. Let us not forget that despite the notion held in Luo-Nyanza that Tuju is not electible, he has brought "visible development" in his Rarieda constituency, and might beat all his opponents in the coming elections.

As we await the general elections, the Steadman polls will continue to shape Kenya’s political landscape in favor of either President Kibaki, ODM-K’s candidate or other future presidential contenders. The outcome of these polls should therefore not be dismissed.

Jared - Sweden

Coming from the country’s largest single voter bloc, the Rift Valley Province, William Ruto is clearly the man to watch in this year’s presidential contest; the question being:

• Can he outsmart retired president Moi to “own” Rift Valley Vote
• Does he have what it takes to wrest the ODM ticket
• What are the chances of him striking a deal with Kibaki
• Who will be the casualties of Ruto phenomenon in the RVP
  

In politics, they say, a day can be a lifetime. In the dynamic world of politics, things can change so fast that careers are created and others destroyed within a short span of time. The adage holds very true in the case of William Samoei Ruto, who only a year ago was considered a political novice but has, in recent months, somehow managed to reconfigure himself into one of the most important political players in the forthcoming presidential race.

The more established politicians especially from the Rift Valley Province who once dismissed Ruto as a fly-by-night-single-day-political-wonder-boy have been forced to eat back their words upon realization that the Ruto phenomenon is here to stay.

Today Ruto is the single most-and potentially most influential-politician in the populous Rift Valley Province. As if by magic, Ruto has managed to eclipse the larger-than-life image and influence that was once wielded by former President Daniel arap Moi in the province of close to 3 million votes.

By so doing, Ruto is today in a position to become the king maker not just in the Rift Valley but possibly even at the national level. And as this happens, some of the politicians from the Rift Valley who had hitherto never seen eye to eye with Ruto are today trying to be associated with him in hope that this will help them recapture their parliamentary seats.

There is no doubt too that many politicians from the Rift Valley Province will become casualties of the Ruto phenomenon if they fail to read the writing on the wall and act accordingly. Agriculture Minister Kipruto arap Kirwa is likely to be the biggest victim of the Ruto phenomenon and may even lose the Cherangany parliamentary seat if the Ruto tide continues unabated. So what factors have made Ruto into the political colossus that he is today?

A man who never misses an opportunity
Political analysts have described him as a politician who has never missed an opportunity to see an opportunity-and seize it. It is a description shared with many who have known the 41-year old Ruto at various stages in his relatively short but eventful career.

Talking of speed in noting and grabbing opportunities the soonest they appear on the horizon, who could have guessed that Ruto could have been that quick in positioning himself to fill a political vacuum in the Rift valley so soon after his very mentor, retired president Moi vacated State House?

And though at the very first his ambitions were taken, at worst, as a joke and at best, a proxy candidate for one of the ODM luminaries, at the moment many are persuaded that Ruto is indeed a factor in his own right and he will be in a position to make or break political careers.

Immediately Moi made his exit as Kenya’s president in 2003, Ruto saw and took maximum advantage of three realities of Kenyan politics.

One, that the country’s politics is seriously fragmented into regional/tribal blocs.

Secondly, that at one time or the other there is usually a father figure in command of any large bloc vote.

And three, that such a bloc seriously counts if there is a home boy to stake a claim to leadership once the father figure leaves the scene.

In his case, Moi absence from State House had created a vacuum in the Rift Valley. But most important for Ruto-and what many others could not immediately realize-Moi would not count much in Rift Valley politics-and the country in general- if his name was not in the ballot.

With that far sight, Ruto positioned himself for plan A and B. In plan A, he would try to woo Moi to back him as the home-boy going for big things in the capital. But Moi had other political plans and backing Ruto for the top job was not one of them. So Ruto positioned himself for plan B: take on his former boss and benefit from Moi fatigue in the Rift Valley.

For plan B to succeed-and looks like it is-Ruto saw two other factors not many people could at the time. That old age and the fast changing dynamics of Kenyan politics would make Moi an increasingly irrelevant factor on the national scene. Secondly, and equally important, an overwhelming number of future voters in the Rift Valley and the country would have a dis-connect with Moi come 2007 and beyond. Moi became president in 1978. Children born in that year will be 29-years old in this election and may have little, if anything, to relate nostalgically with the Moi era.

Armed with such home truths, there was no stopping for Ruto, an alleged descendant of the legendary Nandi chief and freedom fighter Koitalel arap Samoei.

But seizing the opportunity is not exactly the same as getting the prize. Inevitably, Ruto will have to steel himself to cross every section of the journey if he is to be the next occupant of State House.

The first hurdle is to clinch the ODM ticket, and that is assuming ODM stays as one united outfit to the end.

When he declared his candidacy in August last year, many did not take him that serious. Three schools of thought emerged at the time. One, that Ruto was merely placing himself strategically for a spoil in ODM by pretending to “own” a bloc vote he could bring to the table.

The second line and the most popular was that the idea to contest was actually not his own but that of ODM de facto leader, Raila Odinga. The thinking was solidified when Raila actually appeared at Ruto’s “crowning” as a Kalenjin elder last September and publicly stated that he is the one who had asked Ruto to contest. It later turned out that there had not been any prior consultations on the matter, an issue that has left Ruto with a bitter taste in the mouth to this day.

The third school of thought was that by declaring himself a presidential candidate, Ruto cunningly aimed at adding political weight to his name and use his elevated stature to stave off the corruption allegations leveled against him.

In case the push came to shove and he was at the receiving end of the law, as a presidential candidate he could always turn tables by shouting martyr.

Playing godfather to Moi orphans
If there is one thing that really helped Ruto elevate himself to the level he is today, it has to be his fight for the rights of the so-called Moi orphans. When the Kibaki government started to prune some of the remnants of the Moi regime from public service jobs, Ruto saw an opportunity to position himself as the defender of ‘the victimized members of the Kalenjin community’.

While other Rift Valley politicians such as cabinet minister Kipruto arap Kirwa stayed on the sidelines on the thorny issue of Moi’s people ‘being finished’ by the Kibaki government, Ruto took the bull by the horns. He shouted loudest in defense of ‘his people’ and by so doing endeared himself as the defender of the ‘defenseless’.

As Ruto’s star continued to shine, that of other Rift Valley politicians such as Kirwa started dimming almost at the same speed. Ruto’s populist approach to politics resonated well with both high and low. Thus, almost over night, Ruto had transformed himself from a mere member of parliament to the patron saint of the Moi orphans.

This gave him the numbers (votes) he needed to position himself well which in turn attracted moral, material and other forms of backing from prominent members of the Moi orphans club who were looking for someone to defend their interests now that Moi was no longer in power.

Today any member of the Moi orphans club who wants to make an entry to parliament has no choice but to sing the Ruto song. Among those who have already signed up in the Ruto camp include former Head of Civil Service Dr Sally Kosgei who is eyeing the Aldai parliamentary seat. Others such as former aide to Moi, Joshua Kulei are also said to be sympathetic to Ruto and could be supporting him materially.

What next for Ruto?
It is apparent that Ruto has indeed transformed himself into a big league player and will be the man many camps will want in their midst as the elections near. Politics is a dynamic business and the fact that Ruto is today committed to ODM may not mean much if he gets a better offer from president Kibaki.

And in the likelihood of ODM breaking up into competing factions, each group will want to have Ruto in order to bag the crucial Rift Valley vote. Whichever camp he chooses to work with will definitely have an upper hand in the elections and may as well be the winning camp barring some dramatic political realignments at the last minute.

RUTO AT A GLANCE

What works for him

• He is aggressive
• He is quite wealthy
• Relatively young and energetic
• He is eloquent
• Being a Nandi gives him the benefit of numbers among the Kalenjin
• Has the support of Moi ‘orphans’ with their deep pockets
  

What works against him

• Viewed by others as arrogant, selfish and thoroughly Machiavellian in his politics
• Has to deal with the tag and claims of having amassed his wealth corruptly
• Is viewed by others as inexperienced
• His past links to the infamous YK ’92 may come back to haunt him
• Internal differences between the Nandi, Kipsigis, Tugen, Keiyo and other members of the Kalenjin community may negatively impact on him
• His stance against Moi may be used by his detractors to undermine him

Born William Kipchirchir Samoei arap Ruto in 1966, the man who wants to be Kenya’s president hails from Sambu village of Kamagut location of Uasin Gishu district.

He began schooling at the Sambut primary school before joining Eldoret’s Wareng Secondary School where he wrote hi ‘O’ level examinations in 1984.

He was admitted to Kapabet Boys High School for his Advanced Level in 1985-86.he was admitted to the University of Nairobi in 1987 for a first degree course in general sciences.

At University, Ruto a staunch African Inland Church (AIC) member was elected the leader of the University Christian Union choir. That gave him the very first opportunity to meet his mentor, retired President Moi, as the choir was occasionally called upon to entertain the Head of State.

Close friends say it was exposure to the glamour of State House in those formative days that inspired the young man to want to be president one day, some day.

While in college, Moi would request Ruto to accompany him in trips overseas. The first such trip was to Indonesia. Ruto talks about it with relish to this day.

On leaving college and having ‘tasted’ proximity to power, there was no turning back even as Ruto was hired as a temporary teacher at first at Sirgoi secondary school and later at Kamagut secondary, both in the North Rift.

He quit teaching and registered a business company in Nairobi ostensibly to use it as a bridge to get where he wanted-in the world of politics and big money. At the same time he found while away as a masters’ degree student at Chiromo while he marked time to get where he wanted.

In early 1990s, he established a company, African Venture Tours and Hotels, which gave him the opportunity to meet his like-minded. They included Cyrus Jirongo, the late Victor Kebenei, Sammy Kogo Boit and Sam Nyamweya. Others were the late Pyman Onyango and Lazarus Amayo. The group finally introduced him to the all important contacts, the Moi siblings Gideon and June. By now he was halfway where he wanted to be.

Come 1992 election, Ruto naturally found himself in the core team that founded the Kanu campaign machine, the Youth for Kanu ’92. The YK ’92 tale about big money, fast riches, and much power is well documented. However, the honeymoon did not last long.

As soon as Kanu was back in power, Ruto and indeed, the entire YK ’92 fraternity were punted to outer edges of power and privilege. But by 1997 election, Ruto & co. had their revenge when they made their debut to parliament as “independents” within Kanu.

Then he teamed up with Kipruto Kirwa of Cherangany constituency, John Sambu of Mosop and Cyrus Jirongo of Lugari to become the thorn-in-the-flesh within Kanu.

But somehow, along the way in year 2000, they changed tune to become chief defenders of their faith.

Ruto was subsequently appointed Assistant Minister for Provincial Administration and Internal Security and made history in being the only assistant minister allowed to attend cabinet meetings.

He quickly eclipsed power broker, Mark Too, and soon became Moi’s point-man in selling Project Uhuru in Rift Valley province. By then he had been promoted to a full minister and posted to the Home Affairs office.

In 2003 Kanu was ousted from power, Ruto stuck with Uhuru and Moi to ward off challenge for Kanu leadership from a faction led by Keiyo South MP, Nicholas Biwott.

The tables turned only when he and Uhuru differed with Moi over Kanu associating with the new kid on the block, ODM-Kenya.

Dan Kipsang