A Political Kenya: Latest Politics and Kenya Economy News

n the last 80 years, Kenya’s population has jumped from 2.9 million to 37 million. On realising the possible impact of such a high population growth rate on food production, in the 1970s, the Government set aside 240 acres of land for potato research.

Although demand for potatoes then was only low, the tuber soon became very popular with those who crave chips and crisps, mainly urban dwellers. As a result, today, demand for potatoes is rising rapidly, making it the second most important staple after maize.

Last week, the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute’s centre responsible for potato research estimated the crop could soon surpass maize in importance — as early as 2010.

Unfortunately, the research body says it can neither meet the demand for clean planting materials, nor come up with innovations fast enough, for it no longer has enough space for seed multiplication.

Most of Kari’s land was grabbed in the 1990s by politically correct individuals. This land can, and should be, repossessed.

The second reason why Kari is unable to meet farmers’ demands is that it is using outdated technologies, which are slow and expensive.

The centre has already identified alternative technology and made its presentations to the parent ministry, but, seemingly, its application for funds is not being taken seriously.

While population levels and food demand continue to rise, land remains inelastic. But with creative technological applications, other smaller and more densely-populated countries have managed to attain food sufficiency.

THE PACT BETWEEN PRESIDENT Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga on power-sharing was as welcome as it was a relief.

Any more death or destruction would only have worsened the already degenerating political and humanitarian crisis. Already, about 1,500 people have died in the post-election violence and over half a million have been displaced.

There are still hundreds who were maimed and may still be recovering in hospitals around the country. Some of these include women and children who were raped and violated.

Rumours circulating suggest that factions supporting each side of the political divide were re-arming for revenge killings had the talks failed.

The breakthrough, therefore, came not a moment too soon. But as Mr Kofi Annan himself said, “the journey is far from over”.

Kenya, Africa and indeed, the world, owes a debt of gratitude to the African Union’s mediating team led by Mr Annan, Madam Graca Machel, and former President Benjamin Mkapa, as well as the many friends of Kenya who were relentless in their pursuit of a political settlement.

They have all demonstrated exemplary commitment, patience and persistence. In so doing they have prevented the country from descending into horrors such as have been witnessed in many countries within Africa.

It is now the collective responsibility of all sectors of society, including religious leaders, the private sector, politicians, civil society and, indeed, every Kenyan, to ensure that this process continues, is nurtured and protected by all who believe in the common good rather than in personal gain.

If we allow self-seekers to derail this process, we will have only ourselves to blame. We must not be derailed and we must not trivialise the challenge and responsibility before us. Now the work begins and we must all remain engaged.

WE MUST FOCUS, NOT ONLY ON operationalising the immediate political settlement, but also the other instruments that will help us address the long-standing, underlying causes of the crisis.

Foremost among these are issues around land ownership and distribution, and the settlement of the displaced.

It is extremely important that the Government discourages the forced movement of all those that have been displaced in a manner that could balkanise the country along ethnic lines.

All displaced persons must be resettled in an environment that is secure, even if it means providing them with a non-partisan “Peace Force”, created from the Police, the Army or any other branch of the Armed Forces.

Security is paramount to giving those returning to their homes confidence and reducing their fear. With adequate security, it should be possible to provide temporary shelter to the refugees as they await resettlement.

This type of resettlement would facilitate the closing down of the huge refugee camps which are dehumanising and difficult to manage.

This process is also likely to hasten the reduction of trauma and to enhance healing and reconciliation.

There have been other suggestions such as a commission on Truth and Reconciliation, brought forward to deal with the slow process of healing.

Too many Kenyans have lost homes and loved ones — not only in the latest violence, but also in unresolved conflicts of years past. Their grief and anger needs to be dealt with, once and for all, through a process of justice and healing. Only then can there be reconciliation and a lasting peaceful resolution.

Prof Maathai, the 2004 Nobel Peace laureate, is the author of Unbowed: A Memoir.

PRESIDENT KIBAKI AND ODM leader Raila Odinga signing on to a power-sharing deal was probably the easy part.

Now comes the tricky bit of crafting out the fine print in the pact that is supposed to lead, for the first time in Kenya’s history, to the President sharing power with a prime minister coming in from the opposition to form the so-called Grand Coalition.

Ideally, such an agreement should present a win-win solution. But one gets the impression that celebrations in some quarters are rather muted.

In President Kibaki’s political camp, there seems to be a feeling among hardliners that too much was given away.

And while the Odinga forces are jubilant that their man will get a share of power as Prime Minister, it is still unclear whether the powerful Rift Valley constituency — the region most affected by ethnic evictions — is all that excited.

Resettling the hundreds of thousands evicted from their farms and homesteads could turn out to be easier said than done, especially where the properties have already been appropriated.

It could also need a lot of effort by President Kibaki and Mr Odinga to whip their respective MPs fully into line behind the agreement. It would take just a third of all MPs staying away during the crucial vote to derail any constitutional amendment Bill.

The accord was rather vague on the finer details of exactly how the President and the Prime Minister will share power, and the exact duties and functions of the proposed new office.

One problem is that the power-sharing deal is more of a shotgun marriage than a union by mutual consent.

Even assuming all the tricky bits are agreed on without too much fuss, the actual operationalisation could be hampered if there is too much mistrust and suspicion.

For one, both sides will be diverted considerably by keeping an eye on the next elections. The coalition is designed as a temporary measure to oversee work on the longer term solutions needed to put Kenya back on an even keel. Beyond that task, both sides will be plotting to out-do each other come 2012.

Mr Odinga will certainly be working on a strategy aimed at securing power, and not shared power, whether it is through the presidency or the premiership depending on which office he covets in a new constitutional dispensation.

President Kibaki is on his final term and will not be in the running, but there are, in central Kenya, a few already actively working to inherit his mantle.

Narc, which took power in 2002, collapsed basically because both sides, Mr Kibaki’s and Mr Odinga’s, remained in competition even after the elections. The constitution review exercise of the time became merely a tool for each side to try and retain power or plot to take power.

IF SIMILAR QUESTS DOMINATE the new coalition, then it could again be paralysis that will force a parting of ways before any meaningful progress is made in the search for long-term solutions to Kenya’s ethno-political and social schisms.

Then there is the added complication that a president in his final term is always a bit of a lame-duck. President Kibaki will be even more so in a situation where he is serving out his final term forced to share power with a bitter rival.

Many in his camp will be looking beyond the present to either make their own bids for power, or lining up behind those they feel can best represent their interests in the post-Kibaki era.

If there is a critical mass of his MPs who feel President Kibaki accepted a raw deal, then they will have even more incentive to look towards a new champion for the community.

Such a scenario was already building up even before the agreement when a good number of MPs and Cabinet ministers from central Kenya started rallying round a few of their own, independent of the established Government machinery to lead a counter-offensive against the Rift Valley attacks.

Within the Government, also, there is the issue of how Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka fits into the new political dispensation.

Although the VP has publicly welcomed the power-sharing pact, it is obvious that he loses out when Mr Odinga comes in. A Prime Minister in charge of co-ordination and supervision of government is likely to be much more powerful than a Vice-President who has little in terms of defined responsibilities beyond running a ministerial docket.

Besides being a heartbeat away from the presidency, the VPs post carries little clout – not worth much more than pitcher of warm spittle, as a former US Vice-President famously put it.

If he also loses his leadership of the Government side in Parliament to the PM, Mr Musyoka’s role will be further diminished.

Mr Musyoka is not part of President Kibaki’s PNU, but was invited into government to provide the numbers needed to keep Mr Odinga’s ODM in check. Now Mr Odinga is coming into government with vastly superior numbers, and still evidently angry at what ODM calls Mr Musyoka’s betrayal, first in running his own presidential campaign through ODM Kenya, and then in going into the Kibaki Government.

The make or break historical political deal between President Kibaki and Raila Odinga was arrived at last week due to a combination of factors with the full might of international pressure brought to bear by the US Government.

After weeks of intense negotiations led by former UN secretary general Koffi Annan, the peace talks that had appeared to be proceeding well suddenly took a sudden about-turn and appeared to tether on the brink of collapse with PNU tabling fresh terms to its ODM protagonist. When Koffi Annan announced he had suspended the talks due to irreconcilable differences and was seeking audience with the principals the hearts of many Kenyans sunk, and a furious US through its secretary of state Condoleezza Rice warned of “severe consequences if the talks collapsed.”

According to sources within the international diplomatic fraternity in Nairobi, soft diplomacy was overnight replaced by what amounted to strong-arm tactics some will term outright blackmail when it became apparent that the Koffi Annan-led talks were headed for the iceberg.

Within minutes of leaving the meeting hall where tampers had flared forcing Annan to suspend the dialogue, Annan called US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and gave her the bad news. So alarmed by the sudden turn of events was Rice that she took time off from her busy schedule in China and read riot act to Raila and Kibaki. “There can be no excuse for violence, and those responsible must be held responsible,” she said and added that US was exploring a wide range of possible actions.

But even as she spoke military watchers familiar with US naval patrols in international waters say the giant USS Porter cruise ship docked in Yemen and was understood to have started preparing for a possible adventure in East Africa through the Red Sea similar to the Liberian scenario some years back when US marines virtually plucked him out of power.

The US military option not overtly stated appeared to have been underscored by British prime minister Gordon Brown when he proposed that the Kenya Army may have to intervene to stop the violence if the talks collapsed especially to avert a bloodshed from militia reported to have been arming themselves on both sides of the political divide.

Assistant Secretary of African Affairs Jendayi Frazer in an earlier message to Kibaki and Odinga had warned that the US could impose a solution on the country if the two sides failed to agree rather than see the country go the Rwanda way.

When the range of possible actions reached Kibaki and Raila via sealed letters which only the two were supposed to open and see, the two were reportedly frightened out of their wits and frantically sought each other to reach a truce rather than face the threatened consequences. The letters reportedly warned the two that they would not only lose any possibility of getting political power but would also have their own personal fortunes and freedom curtailed.

They were asked to choose between losing all power or have half of it. Details of how America would have done that are still emerging with political watchers agreed that faced with a choice of seeing Kenya a strategic western ally against the war on terror in East and Central Africa go to the dogs, America would have encouraged an armed intervention and installment of acceptable government in Nairobi. The fact that only the other day a cruise ship docked in Mombasa with the presence of marines very much evident, analysts say the point was driven home, agree on a truce or be forced out.

A cruise ship docking in Mombasa would act as a physical threat to the negotiating teams that failure was not an option to be entertained. Rice letter to Kibaki reportedly demanded: Do you know a man by the name of Saddam Hussein? Are you as half as powerful as he was? At least Saddam had a rat hole to hide. Do you have one? Saddam was not only ousted out of power but has since been hanged.

Apart from this, Rice also warned Kibaki that he would have to forget about his bank accounts or any investments abroad as they would be frozen. The president who had assumed a rather rigid stance saying any negotiated settlement must be within the constitution, was also warned that he would be held personally responsible for killings that would follow collapsed talks and reminded that there are empty cells in The Hague where former Liberian strongman Charles Taylor is now cooling his heels. Most likely they would be charged with crimes against humanity if the political hardliners drove the country into total anarchy.

The contents of the letter to Raila are said to have been similar to Kibaki’s but did not mention about the bank accounts and the responsibility for the killings. As it is turning out, the American government is even more versed with going on in Kenya than Kenyan themselves as shown by a report on the current crisis as presented to the Congress.

The Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs have denied a report carried in today’s Standard that she was denied a visa to visit Switzerland. She clarified that she and her Kenyan delegation were all granted Visas but she opted to stay behind and attend to the higher priority issues of the mediation talks. In a press conference held today afternoon, Ms Karua said that the Permanent Secretary in her ministry traveled and represented her in the delegation.

She further added that she had not applied a visa in her personal capacity to test whether she can be denied a visa by any of the foreign government. She dispelled a widely circulated rumour that she had been sent a letter by the US or UK denying her and her children future travel to the states or the UK. She stated that in the case of receiving such letters she will display them to the press saying that is not an embarrassment to be denied visa to travel to a far flung country especially in winter.

I saw Patrick Basham on CNN, a political scientist comment on Kenya and his view somehow resonated with my gut feelings.

• There are fundamental differences between Raila and Kibaki
• They may agree on the trivia. When confronted with fundamental issues more often than not there is a stalemate and a stand off.
• Land reforms will not happen with this government
• It does not help that the conflict in Kenya had to a larger extent had deep historical roots. A major issue is land reform. As Kenya stands now the squatters are still squatters. The Kikuyu refugees will return to their farms in the Rift Valley. The government will help them reconstruct their houses. The Kalenjin will apparently welcome them and beg for forgiveness. Worse still, the two communities are expected to live together like nothing happened. Whatever point the Kalenjin were making is a non-issue. That is a time bomb.
• There is deep hatred and tribalism between the two leaders’ supporters
• The mistrust and suspicions still exist between Kibaki and Raila. It is worse with their supporters.
• The grand coalition is an affront to democracy
• Simply grand coalitions do not work
• The fundamental differences between the two political rivals will not allow for the coalition to work for the good of all Kenyans. It is just a matter of time.

According to Basham the grand coalition is not a solution in the medium term and the long term. The only solution will be to make the two sides commit to free and fair future elections. The free and fair standard is to be set by the international community.

Raila Odinga said on CNN that under the terms of the agreement he will be first discussing issues with the president before implementing them. However, ground rules need to be worked out to ensure there is harmonious co-existence. I secretly hoped this was worked out and ground rules set on who is doing what with all the clarity that could be written down. Could that be the calm before the storm?

History has gone full circle too soon in Kenya. What Kibaki failed to do in 2002, he has been forced to do it in 2008. Not yet though, the problem was not the NARC MOU, it was the enforcement. Kibaki still has to prove he has changed and is willing to honour the deal without looking for loopholes in it to have grounds to dishonour it. The test is yet. There are controls however to ensure that Kibaki does not dishonour the new MOU. That of making it an Act of parliament and somehow entrenching it in the constitution. The exit clause is one of the funniest in the history of contractual agreements and let us just hope it will not get to the point where Kibaki and Raila has to revert to the exit clause.

There are multitude of blessings for Kenyans worth counting. We will smile and be merry and worryless of the dirt that has been swept under the carpet by Annan and ndugu Mrisho Kikwete our good old Good Samaritan from TZ. For once there is peace in Kenya and no looming violence in the horizon. That is a good thing. No more forced evictions, no more mass murders, burning of churches and general fear of Kenya tipping over. The economy will recover the upset without more upsets. Donor aid and grants will flow for reconstrutions as we give up some of our inheritance to the west. Tourism and business will thrive again. The region will be reconnected and ailing Uganda, Rwanda and other eastern and central African republics will be rejuvenated. Kenya will again be the hub of the horn of Africa. That is indeed a very good thing, indescribable. The politics of exclusion are done with, more consultative governance will be enforced and hopefully equality to the extent that no one community will feel sidelined.

There is a lot of optimism and hope in our feeble Kenyan hearts that all will be well. That with the agreement there will be no underhand political outmaneuvers. Kibaki and Raila will work in harmony, in team spirit to the good of all Kenyans. None on both sides will look down upon each other. The segregation of duties and separation of one's powers will be respected. No more primary school like competition. The politics of win-win will be enhanced. In short hakutakuwa na kudharauliana na kukanyangana mpaka wendine waende pembeni. Hopefully the politics of mtaka msitake, mpende msipende are now part of our dark history. That the showbiz is over and we are all in karma. Hopefully.

After the MOU saga of 2002, lots of time was wasted on the constitution review until the referendum when things went berserk. History is revolving and this is Agenda number four in 2008. Kenyans are holding their breath to see whether anything good will come out of this agenda. Does Wanjiku matter anymore, or the political class have realised that Wanjiku dropped out of school in class four and therefore cannot be entrusted with weighty matters of Cap this Chapter this Section this Subsection this Article that?

Before we think of moving on and before the onset of acrimony of distributing the queen cakes that ministries and civil service appointments and such are, can Annan and his team now focus on resettling the displaced persons. Can they negotiate and fight for the justice of the Kenyan refugees in Kenya. Can they arm twist the political principals and engage the international community to take a minute and issue threats, visa bans and sanctions to ensure that all those who were murdered between Dec 27 to this week's Molo murders get their justice. This justice can be meted out without waiting for a truth, justice and reconciliation commission to be set up. This is urgent. Kibaki and Raila should be forced to give this agenda adequate attention.