A Political Kenya: Latest Politics and Kenya Economy News

Even as President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister-designate Raila Amolo Odinga mull over the structure of the eagerly awaited grand coalition government, it is apparent that deciding on who to include in the cabinet is a Herculean task given the foreign interests factor that has taken center stage.

The cabinet, which we have learnt should have been in place by now, is providing a hard challenge as the two principals try to juggle, balance and accommodate strong foreign interests mainly from the United States and the EU on one hand and China and a few Asian countries commonly referred to as Asian Tigers on the other.

Right now, there are a lot of backstage dealings by mainly the US and its main challenger ton the world super power position – China – to have friendly politicians appointed to certain key ministries.

While in principle all ministries are equal, it is no longer debatable that some ministries are more equal than others as they carry more clout. Appointment to such ministries transforms the occupier into an instant senior politician. Among the important ministries include Finance, Internal Security, Roads and Public Works, Education, Health, Agriculture, Trade and Industry, and Defence. Others are Energy, Foreign Affairs, Tourism, Transport and Lands.

The two foreign giants have both had long trade and political relationships with Kenya. And with a radically changed political scenario, they are burning the midnight oil to ensure that they have friends in key ministries if they have to perpetuate or open new trade and business opportunities with East Africa’s biggest economy, which also has a big influence on the economics of other countries in the region.

It should be stated that from the onset that the US and Britain have since independence been Kenya’s key trade partners with equal political influence. However, this status was threatened soon after Kibaki assumed power and started warming up to the fast-rising Chinese, who in the meantime had managed to build an economy to rival US’s and suddenly shown a massive interest in Africa. China, with a population of over 1.4 billion people invested some US$ 9 billion in Africa last year alone.

More importantly, unlike the US and members of the EU who insisted on good governance, democracy and respect for human rights as a prerequisite for foreign assistance, China seemed quite happy to do business with anyone, democratic or human rights credentials not withstanding. The country insists on sovereignity of other nations.

As the Kibaki government came under increasing scrutiny particularly after the Anglo Leasing scandal, the US and Britain began to give it a wide berth, with the then British envoy, Sir Edward Clay, dramatically accusing individuals in the administration of overeating and vomiting on the shoes of their benefactors, the president turned to China as an alternative means of support.

Traditionally, Kenya had obtained its security equipment mainly from the West but the Kibaki administration started looking elsewhere. The British were also not amused when the government, which had for a long time preferred the British-made Land Rovers for use by government officials, and particularly security officers, began to buy Japanese autos. To make matters worse, senior government officials, who for many years exclusively drove the German-made Mercedes Benz, began to use Japanese 4x4s as well.

The tourism sector was not left out. With the number of visitors from Britain and the US falling as a result of travel advisories, Kenya began to look to the East. Suddenly there was an avalanche of Chinese visitors. National carrier, Kenya Airways, extended its routes to several Chinese cities and offered discounts on such routes. However, it did not take long for players in the tourism sector to notice that the Chinese were not good spenders and tour operators turned focus again to traditional markets. A local newspaper once cheekily reported that even the commercial sex workers who benefit form tourism were complaining about the poor pay for services offered to Chinese tourists!

In trade, the Western countries were alarmed, when cheap (mostly counterfeit) goods, particularly electronics and clothes from China began to flood the Kenyan market, replacing formerly strong British and Japanese brands.

It was against this background that the US and Britain began to support the then opposition ODM in their bid to oust increasingly anti-western Kibaki government. Prior to the 2007 campaigns, opposition leaders made many trips to Washington and London, mainly to raise funds. Unconfirmed reports have it that several US and UK businesses provided financial backing to the ODM campaign as several Chinese ones did the same for the PNU. They all hoped to be paid back in form of business opportunities once their benefactors won the election.

The political settlement arrived at after the Koffi Annan mediation has provided both sides with opportunities to angle and haggle for their pound of flesh.

We have learnt that the US and the UK are keen to have several important cabinet positions go to ODM ministers and they are stopping at nothing to ensure this is done. Likewise the Chinese, who have strong friends in the PNU ranks, are stopping at nothing to ensure that their friends retain the important dockets they hold in government.

The struggle is so intense with a source informing us that the Chinese are resorting to unorthodox tricks. Needless to say, the Chinese care little for image. Back home China is anything but a democracy. Self-determination by groups such as the Tibetians has been frustrated and as we went to the press there were international demonstrations by Tibetians calling for independence and democracy. Corruption thrives in Beijing and one out of three Chinese products is likely to be a counterfeit.

We have established that it is in this light that the US is insisting that the Finance docket goes to ODM. This is perhaps the most important ministry which handles all the government’s money. The minister is the custodian of all government financial resources. It is the ministry that decides how resources are allocated and also how to raise such resources, including through the sale of state companies such as Safaricom.

The occupant of the office is such a key figure and it is not difficult to see why the foreign interests want a friendly politician in the position. There are a few names the US is floating for the ministry. They include pentagon member Musalia Mudavadi who would also be Deputy Prime Minister, Chris Obure and Chris Okemo. These three have served in this ministry before and successfully presented budget estimates.

But even as the Western powers want an ODM man in the post, the Chinese are backing the incumbent Amos Kimunya who ahs served their interests very well since he was appointed. It will be interesting to see who carries the day.

Similarly, the US and their EU allies want a friend in the Internal Security docket. The interests here are both security and business. They want a politician who will be tough as far as the fight against terrorism is concerned and at the same time influence the award of security tenders to western companies.

A source intimated to us that the US will be stopping at nothing to ensure and ODM politician occupies this position. The argument is ODM, which ahs a massive Muslim backing, is in a better position to neutralize Muslim hardliners which will make it difficult for terrorists either to recruit or operate among the Muslim population. The names of Henry Kosgey and Joe Nyagah are being mentioned as possible occupants of the position currently held by the mathematics professor George Saitoti.

The Chinese have displayed little interest in this position because apart from wishing to have adequate security for their interests in Kenya, they do not have a lot of interests in the internal security equipment industry.

But they have displayed interest in the Defence ministry because they want to deal in military hardware. The Chinese are doing good business supplying arms such as to war-torn eastern Sudan, never mind the international criticism that Khartoum is using arms, jets and tanks supplied by Beijing to commit atrocities in Darfur.

But the US wants a friend here as well and the name of former army Major-General Joseph Nkaissery is being floated.

The Chinese have also shown strong interest in the Trade and Industry ministry. China is today known as the workshop of the world that produces a wide range of products from electronics to textiles and even household goods.

Since Kibaki came to power, the local market has been flooded with Chinese products. While they are cheap, they do not last long; acquiring the name “use-and-throw-away”.

The number of Chinese businessmen and traders has been increasing each passing day. In Nairobi, the Chinese invasion is such that many retail outfits are run by Chinese. The Chinese are not eager to relinquish this privilege and thus the push to have a friendly minister in that position.

But the US and allies are also interested in this. They are keen to stop Chinese products from replacing theirs on the shop shelves. They want a friendly politician who will be tough on dumping and counterfeits – from China of course.

The other ministry that is creating cold war between the West and China is the Roads and Public Works. Lately China has been providing assistance in the construction of infrastructure. But this is not for free since the money end up in the pockets of Chinese construction companies. Although award of tenders theoretically is as a result of competitive bidding, the reality is that the political leader of the ministry has a lot of influence.

While the US is fighting to have an ODM minister in the position, the Chinese are rooting for John Michuki, the current occupant. Early this year as the country burned, Michuki visited China and Malaysia for unexplained reasons. When he reported back, he was taken ill and admitted to hospital. Later it emerged he had suffered food poisoning.

The West will like to see many US and European companies involved in roads construction. Additionally, they would not mind the ministry to continue to procure road construction equipment from them.

The other hotly contested ministry is Health. This ministry consumes a substantial amount of the country’s resources particularly with the challenges of HIV/AIDS and Malaria. There is also expensive medical equipment to procure.

US and UK pharmaceuticals have traditionally dominated the supply of drugs to Kenya although other players from India have come in with generics and the Chinese with mainly herbal-based drugs.

The US is not about to relinquish its dominant position in the supply of medicine especially the anti-retroviral drugs. They are also not keen to let go of their position in the supply of medical equipment. A friendly minister at Afya House would help facilitate this. They are campaigning for the reappointment of former minister Charity Ngilu.

Equally competitive is the ministry of Foreign Affairs. Although not significant in terms of business, it is strategic as it informs the government’s foreign policy which ahs a bearing on trade and business,

The West remains outraged that the Kibaki government has warmed up to the East, which for many years and particularly during the cold war was shunned by both Kenyatta and the Moi Governments.

About two years ago, the Chinese president Hu Jintao visited Kenya and President Mwai Kibaki has made several trips to Beijing. The US and UK are unhappy with this paradigm shift and keen to revert to the earlier status. A friendly minister at the ministry will not be a bad idea. Such a minister will also be useful in the lobbying by the powerful nations for support on serious international subjects such as war in terrorism, Iran, Iraq and Sudan question among others.

The other ministry that has attracted foreign interest is the Energy Ministry in charge of electricity and oil. Before other players came in, the British and American companies dominated trade in oil and oil products in Kenya. Lately, the Libyans have joined the fray. The Chinese and their allies are also keen to be part of this business and thus the push for a friend in the ministry.

More importantly, Kenya could still strike oil in the future. There is intense competition by foreign companies for a go at oil exploration. Both Western and Chinese companies want a piece of the action and it will depend very much on who will be at the Energy headquarters at Nyayo House to determine who will get the biggest piece.

It should be noted that since independence, foreign forces have used certain ministers in government to push their agenda. Right at independence, Tom Mboya, was used to lobby for US interests while Odinga Oginga did the spadework for the then USSR.

Others like Bruce Mackenzie were known agents of the British. In later years, Robert Ouko became the darling of the West, an enviable position coveted by the likes of Nicholas Biwott. While circumstances have changed, interests have remained the same and jostling among foreign powers to have friends high up in government remains the order of the day.

It remains to be seen who will eventually carry the day as this new cold war between USA and communist capitalist-driven China battle for markets and sources of raw materials.

He first represented Embakasi from 1988 to 1991 when he lost the seat at the advent of multi-partyism to Ford Asili's Henry Ruhiu. During that tenure he is remembered for the role he played in the downfall of the fifth vice President, the late Dr Josephat Njuguna Karanja in 1989. Dr Karanja was then a Member of Parliament for Mathare Constituency (today Kasarani Constituency). Mwenje moved a successful vote of no confidence that led to the resignation of Dr. Karanja, who had replaced Mwai Kibaki as the country's vice president in 1988. Dr Karanja died in 1994. Mwenje served as an assistant minister for supplies and marketing during that time.

Mwenje later recaptured the seat in the 1997 on a DP ticket and successfully retained it in 2002 on Narc ticket. He briefly served as an assistant minister for cooperatives after the 2005 referendum. He was unsuccessful in retaining his seat in the controversial Dec 2007 elections and came fourth after Melitus Were and former city fathers John Ndirangu and Ferdinand Waititu. Mwenje, of the Jeshi la Mzee fame, will be remembered for his abrasive and violent brand of Nairobi politics only rivaled by Westlands MP, Fred Gumo.

Mwenje was hospitalized at the Aga Khan Hospital on January 12th where his condition deteriorated. He went to a coma and was transferred to the hospital's ICU unit where he was for 22 days until his death. His death comes barely a month after the death of his successor Melitus Mugabe Were. The Embakasi parliamentary seat is currently vacant. The murder of Mugabe Were is still unresolved.

In the oncoming by-elections the two remaining losers of the December elections, John Ndirangu, a former Nairobi Mayor and Ferdinand Waititu, a former Nairobi Deputy Mayor are expected to battle it out with Esther Passaris. Esther Passaris has the blessings of ODM top echelon. She failed to get the intended Nairobi mayoral seat after her nominated name was mischievously struck out by local government minister Uhuru Kenyatta at the time of gazzeting nominated councillors. Another possible ODM contender for the seat is former Makadara MP, Reuben Ndolo. Reuben is currently having a court petition case against Dick Wathika, the current MP for Makadara.

THERE IS MUCH JUBILATION and exuberance in the air and a real hope that life for most Kenyans can return to some semblance of normality. Certainly, there is a more positive feeling and for good reasons.

But there is an erroneous expectation by many that things will not only continue to get back to normal, but that we can pick up from where we were so rudely interrupted.

For example, the shilling strengthens, the Nairobi Stock Exchange picks up, and commentators start talking of rapid economic recovery. A cruise ship docks and we celebrate the return of tourists.

I do not want to appear to be a spoilsport, but it is not as simple as that. It is vital that we inject a large dose of reality into our hopes and expectations. We don’t want to raise false hopes that get dashed once the hard work begins.

We need to do this so that we can map out and implement a comprehensive action plan that will restore this country and its economic growth.

WE ALSO NEED THIS SO THAT WE can remedy and rectify some of the glaring distortions and inequities that bedevil the nation.

This is going to require an enormous residue of goodwill and hard work by all, the Executive and Parliament in particular. Let us put it another way. There is little room for the luxury of divisive politics.

It is useful to put on the table some of the impediments and challenges that confront us. Much damage has been done in many different areas and repairing it will take time. The economic momentum that we gained particularly in the past couple of years has been punctured.

It can be restored but not instantly. Even then, to do so will require much dedication and hard work.

Investor confidence is greater than a week ago, but still far from what it was three months ago. At best, all we can hope for is a steady return of it if stability and opportunity persist.

The region, of which we are a hub to, has been seriously disrupted. Confidence in Kenya as a reliable regional gateway has been severely dented.

We have a lot to make up if we want to persuade these countries not to find medium- and long-term alternatives. We must not assume we are doing them a favour. This is huge business for Kenya and hence a major pillar of our economy.

Then, there are the factors, not of our own making: rocketing fuel and food prices and costs of transport, and a drought that will worsen the plight of many already marginalised Kenyans.

We need to remember that there are also areas of the economy that are sick and need serious surgery. One such example is sugar. Kenya is one of the most expensive and inefficient sugar producers in the world.

At the same time, this sub-sector is facing increasing competition as the Comesa safeguards are relaxed.

The need to change is urgent and vital and for both social as well as economic and commercial reasons. Failure to do so plunges hundreds of thousands of Kenyans and their dependants into a downward spiral of poverty.

The point is that once the modalities of the coalition and its power-sharing are sorted out, the gargantuan task of running and reforming this country must kick in very fast indeed.

It will be as much a question of how effectively and efficiently it can be implemented, as well as what must be done.

Never before in the history of Kenya has the political class been put firmly into a position where it is expected to work hard and deliver.

KENYANS WILL BE WATCHING carefully over the next few weeks, and not just to see who gets what in the political equation.

They will be expecting the many appointments and replacements to be made based on merit rather than reward so that our institutions function much better and more professionally.

At the same time, the onus of running this country is not only weighty, but has got much more burdensome as a result of the trauma of the last couple of months.

Indeed, running this country successfully at this crucial juncture is one of the most awesome and unenviable challenges thinkable.

I AM AFRAID THOSE FEARS expressed in this column a month ago – more than two weeks before that climactic moment when President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga signed their agreement on the steps of Harambee House – are being borne out.

My point then was that discussion on a new governance structure should not be about sharing power – it should not be about sharing the spoils, ‘‘jobs for the boys’’, or ‘‘eating together’’; it should be about sharing responsibility.

There is a world of difference between sharing power and sharing responsibility. The former is all about a small clique agreeing to share the spoils by eating together.

The latter is about each side in the political divide accepting responsibility for the post-election quake that shook Kenya, and taking up jointly the responsibility of ensuring that this country never goes down that path again.

We have already agreed to create the position of prime minister to be taken by the party commanding a majority in Parliament, in reality a position for Mr Odinga. We have also agreed on two deputy prime ministers, one from each side.

But now we are hearing all this talk about expansion of the Cabinet to grotesque proportions just so that there can be a slot for every man and his dog.

We are hearing about ODM demanding, not just its equitable share of ministerial flags and dockets, but also the opportunity to appoint its own permanent secretaries, provincial commissioners, district commissioners, State corporation bosses and all kinds of other officials in the public service.

President Kibaki and Premier-Designate Raila Odinga must come together and call a halt to all this nonsense.

If this is to be a Government mandated specifically to drive reform, then it must itself be a reformist administration in word and deed. One of the prerequisites must be a lean and effective Cabinet and a strictly apolitical public service.

There is nothing that nearly 40 ministers and twice that number of assistant ministers can do that a much smaller Cabinet cannot do.

A maximum of 18 Cabinet positions and two assistant ministers in each ministry should more than suffice.

And we certainly don’t need a public service led by fellows whose only qualifications are that they are relatives, cronies, friends and political flunkies of the so-called principals.

If President Kibaki and Mr Odinga are really leaders who care more about fixing this country than they care about eating together, then they must firmly lay down the law on this.

The dangers of an arrangement based solely on sharing power and the perks of high office underlines why there is still need for an effective opposition to keep a watch on things.

THERE HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIONS that the media and civil society play the role of the opposition, but there must also be a group in Parliament playing its role.

Backbenchers could play a critical role if they all recognise that their job is to keep the Government on its toes and not to be mere cheerleaders.

But in a situation where everyone is angling for some appointment, it might be more worthwhile if there was an organised opposition in Parliament.

And this is where the minor parties come in. Party of Independent Candidates (PICK) MP for Kilome, John Harun Mwau, has already staked his claim to be Leader of the Official Opposition.

But he diluted his pitch by making it at the same time he was attending a government Parliamentary Group meeting.

If he is serious, he should be busy organising all the MPs not drawn from either of the two major coalition partners in an attempt to assemble a strong parliamentary opposition.

The big two parties, now in coalition, and their main affiliates, account for some 170 elected MPs. That is a commanding majority, especially when their 12 nominated MPs are added to the list.

But there are a host of small parties with between one and five MPs each which, together, provide 35 Members.

Most of them are already allied to one or the other of the bigger players, but individually, they lack the clout to force themselves into the inner sanctums and thus are unlikely to win any major Cabinet positions or to win their jobless clansmen judicial postings or as chief executives of plum parastatals.

That is why they should come out and make their presence felt as a distinct force in Parliament, acting as the people’s watchdog rather than mere lapdogs for the amusement of those wielding power in the Kibaki-Raila power arrangement.

Safina, Narc, Narc Kenya, Kanu, Ford People, DP, New Ford Kenya, Sisi kwa Sisi, PICK, KENDA, KADDU, Chama cha Uzalendo and others have the numbers to make an impact as the opposition voice in Parliament.

Between them, they have not just the numbers, but also the forceful, robust, intelligent and maybe fearless and independent MPs that can help ensure the coalition Government remembers it has not been given the mandate to take Kenya back to a one-party state.

Some of them may not be your favourites, but the likes of Harun Mwau, Kabando wa Kabando, Richard Onyonka, Cyrus Jirongo, Gitobu Imanyara, Wavinya Ndeti and others could play far more important roles in the 10th Parliament than merely angling for appointment to Government.

What is the head of public service and secretary to the cabinet, ambassador Francis Muthaura up to. Today he has issued a statement highlighting the following, in an attempt to clear up the gray areas of the deal between Raila of ODM and Kibaki of PNU.

The vice president, currently Hon Kalonzo Musyoka, will still remain the Leader of Government Business in Parliament. Raila had indicated in a KTN interview with Peter Opondo last week on Thursday that he does not expect this role as he will be busy as a Prime Minister to attend Parliament regularly.

The President will chair cabinet meetings. That implies that he will be the Head of Government. Raila has in the past talked of consulting the president as he discharges his duties of 'supervising and coordinating' the ministries.

Civil servants will not be affected by the 50-50 deal expected to be implemented at the cabinet level. ODM had been said to be expecting a reconstitution of prime positions in the civil service to reflect the agreement. This reiterates Martha Karua's sentiments on Sunday that the deal did not include civil service positions. Karua is intimated to be one of the aspiring DPM's something that will put focus on Kibaki's tribalism accusation since Martha Karua is from the expansive Kikuyu community if she is appointed to this position. She has in the past indicated that she will be vying for the presidency in 2012.

The Prime Minister and the two Deputy Prime Ministers will also have ministerial portfolios. For example Raila will be the prime minister and minister for internal security in the office of the president. The downside is that this reduces the ministries to be shared out to ODM and PNU cronies by three, four if the vice president will also have a ministerial portfolio.

Interestingly, the fate of Muthaura's position still hangs in the balance as most of his duties will be taken up by the prime minister.

The second session of the 10th Parliament reopened today. The major business of today's session was the speech by the Member of Parliament for Othaya, Mwai Kibaki, who is also the third President of Kenya.

Key highlight of his speech was his call for MPs to all support and pass the four bills drafted following mediation talks by Koffi Annan.

These are:

1. National Accord & Reconciliation Bill
2. Constitution Ammendment Bill
3. Truth Justice & Reconciliation Bill
4. Ethnic Commission Bill

There was a light moment when the President struggled to pronounce the word "ethnicity" to which there was foot thumping and laughter from the MPs.

As per the parliamentary tradition, several MPs had a hard time listening to the president's speech and easily dozed the afternoon away. Among them was Dagoretti MP, Beth Mugo and Prime Minister designate and MP for Lang'ata, Raila Odinga.

Raila Odinga is a happy man.

On Sunday, he went to the beach and was pictured on the front page of Kenya’s leading newspaper, The Daily Nation, lounging by the waves, wearing shorts and argyle socks.

On Monday, as he polished off a bowl of vegetable soup and sautéed fish at the Nairobi Club, he seemed relaxed, chatty and upbeat — for the first time in weeks.

“Better half a loaf than no bread,” Mr. Odinga said of a power-sharing agreement struck on Thursday that marries his political party to his rivals in the Kenyan government.

Mr. Odinga, 63, is Kenya’s top opposition leader, and his decision to drop his claim to Kenya’s presidency — which he says he rightly won — and to accept the newly created position of prime minister has helped pull this country back from the brink of chaos.

Last week, the governing party agreed to form a coalition government with Mr. Odinga’s party, a breakthrough in a dangerous political crisis that erupted in December with a flawed presidential election. The incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, was declared the winner, despite widespread evidence of vote rigging.

The election set off weeks of bloodshed, destruction and ethnic balkanization, which for a moment put Kenya’s future in doubt.

The political violence has mostly calmed down, though on Sunday night more than 10 people were killed in western Kenya in clashes over contested land. Mr. Odinga, in an interview on Monday, credited the unstinting pressure by the European Union and the United States government with forcing Mr. Kibaki to compromise.

“They knew the game was up,” Mr. Odinga said, referring to Mr. Kibaki’s side, which had insisted for weeks that it would not share power with the opposition, but finally conceded to just about all of Mr. Odinga’s demands except for the presidency.

Mr. Odinga said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had been especially influential — and tough. She visited Kenya last month, and by the accounts of Mr. Odinga and others with knowledge of her meetings, she spoke sternly to Kenya’s president, telling him that his plan to prevent Mr. Odinga’s team from getting any real power was “unacceptable.”

People close to Mr. Kibaki have conceded that the foreign pressure had played a role in Mr. Kibaki’s about-face, especially from donor nations like the United States, which has provided Kenya with more than half a billion dollars of aid each year. And, Mr. Odinga says, that pressure must continue.

“We’re still at a very critical stage,” he said.

The next step is for Parliament to ratify the political agreement signed by Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kibaki. There are many questions to sort through, like how the government will function with essentially two bosses and what will happen to the vice president, a position that now seems to be eclipsed by that of the prime minister. Parliament is to meet Thursday.

But the biggest question seems to be how Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kibaki will get along. The two teamed up in 2002, when Mr. Kibaki won his first term as president. But they soon had a bitter falling-out.

Mr. Odinga said he had no problem working with Mr. Kibaki. He said his only potential problem was “the clique around him.” He said the clique could persuade some Parliament members to skip the vote on the power-sharing agreement.

The agreement needs a two-thirds majority to be put into Kenya’s Constitution through an amendment. So far, Mr. Kibaki’s political allies have said that they will support the agreement, though some have continued to grumble about its ramifications.

Mr. Odinga seems cautiously optimistic. He spoke Monday of the ministries his party wanted to take over, including finance and internal security, and how he planned to provide better housing to improve conditions in Kenya’s slums, which had been incubators of violence during the election crisis.

He also said that he was excited about the American presidential race, and that he was rooting for Barack Obama, who is half Kenyan and whose father was Luo, Mr. Odinga’s ethnic group.

Luos have felt marginalized for years. There is an old joke in Kenya that has caused a lot of chuckles lately, that a Luo will be president of the United States before being president of Kenya.

“We beat them to it,” Mr. Odinga said, laughing so hard that his eyes watered. “I just wasn’t sworn in.”