A Political Kenya: Latest Politics and Kenya Economy News

FELLOW KENYANS, WE ARE being buffeted by a second crisis. No, I am not talking about the post-election fallout and turmoil and the continuing standoff regarding who gets what piece of the action.

I am talking about the breathtaking spiralling cost of living, eating and just existing and how it is fast overtaking more and more people’s ability to manage and to feed their families.

Kenya has more than half its population living on the wrong side of the poverty line and is in the top 10 league of the most unequal societies in the world.

Much of the 1990s and early part of this decade were lost years in terms of economic progress.

Add onto that the endemic corruption, misuse of power and disproportionate economic progress and gains of the last few years. The latter is most important.

Tourism and horticulture may have raced ahead, but some vital economic and social sectors that millions of Kenyans depend on such as sugar, pyrethrum and cotton have languished.

NOW, LET’S ADD ON TO THAT THE present and get closer to the nub of the crisis. Regardless of the reasons behind it, the hard fact is that Kenya needs to import a large slice of its staple foods: two thirds of its wheat; three quarters of its rice; over a third of its sugar; much of its edible oils, and so on.

In a bad year, and this is likely to be one, we will also have a strategic deficit of maize and will need to import, especially in the third quarter of the year.

There was a time, not long ago, when several people, myself included, advocated that we should not build up strategic reserves of maize but import domestic shortfalls because the former was exceedingly expensive.

Now all that is turned upside down. Consumption of food is outstripping supply and that is not a temporary blip. World food stocks are at the lowest they have been for years.

This is for a number of well-documented reasons: increasing consumption particularly in the fast growing economies of China and India; poor harvests, and the diversion of some of these products into making biofuel.

Prices are literally going through the roof. Wheat prices have doubled in a year, and on average, world food prices have increased by some 40 per cent this year alone.

The price of locally grown maize is rising by the week and is in the region of Sh1,400 per 90-kilo bag. It will not be long until it reaches the world price which is now in excess of Sh2,000.

Indeed, countries are now imposing restrictions or taxes on food exports in order to safeguard or preserve their domestic supplies.

There are very few food products that will be unaffected. If supply tightens and prices rise, one shifts to a cheaper food.

Demand for that product increases and prices rise accordingly.

Secondly, Kenya is in no position to buck the world trend because of the quantity of food it needs to import.

To round off the picture, there are three other factors: fertiliser prices, the post-election mayhem, and fuel prices.

As farmers are finding out, the former has doubled in less than a year. If one can afford it, all well and good. But many farmers can’t and are either cutting back on the acreage, or using less fertiliser.

EITHER WAY, WE END UP WITH REduced harvests. It is estimated that the main crop from our breadbasket in North Rift and Trans Nzioa will be at least 30 per cent less this year.

The second factor resulted in some of our crop being destroyed, reduced acreage under cultivation and delays in planting. It is an important negative cause but should be seen in the context of the other issues and not blamed solely for the price rises.

Thirdly there is the oil factor. Oil prices are now in excess of $100 a barrel, an all-time high even in real terms, and the supply and demand equation is such that we are unlikely to see much relief from that.

The trouble with oil price increases is that they affect literally everything that requires to be transported whether goods or people.

In conclusion, Kenya, and the world, is in the early stages of a price explosion. It has many ramifications. It will plunge more people into poverty.

It will have a negative effect on virtually all our social indicators, particularly in the nutrition and health arenas.

It will continue to result in serious social unrest as those prices bite and scarcities spread. It will test sorely the competence and capacity of government in reducing the impact and keeping social order.

Mr Shaw is a businessman operating in Nairobi.

Press conference underway at Orange House

Hallow Sir,

Receive greetings from a Kenyan yearning for justice

Sir, I realize that you are one of the highly paid citizens in East and Central Africa.

I therefore hope that this means Kenyans get services that are unparalleled in the region.

Sir, I have two concerns, the first is the unending Mobitelea. I don't know what mobitelea is, am not sure whether it is shadowy or not and so are most Kenyans.

Why cant your esteemed office clear the air on this. Isn't your office the one which ought to investigate this matter and give Kenyans the assurance they seek.

Secondly Sir, if indeed the electoral commission was compromised through pressure or even through bribes, isn't your office supposed to stand for integrity/ Any investigation in the offing?

Sir, as you read this from integrity house – Kenyans long for the truth on these two matters.

Please help

I remain looking forward to a positive response

Sir, you recently stated that the agreed on bloated cabinet of 40 won't be an extra burden on Kenyans.

Sir, how exactly is this the case?

40 ministries means – 40 ministers earning more than a million shillings a month.

It further means at least 40 assistant ministers taking home a million shillings a month.

It means 40 permanent secretaries taking home more than half a million a month.

It also means 80 official limousines for the ministers (each does get two).

It further means 40 more fuel guzzlers for the assistant ministers

The 40 permanent secretaries also get to be driven home – a home that also ought to belong to the government (aren't they housed?).

Don't forget the 80 drivers for the ministers and their assistants.

Plus the 80 or more body guards, who would rather be combating crime in Kariobangi.

Sir, please help me see things from your point of view – no extra cost?

To say that by mid 2002 I had grown tired of Moi would be an understatement; the truth is that I wanted him nowhere near power. Infact I even wanted him out of Nairobi and completely out of our lives. I concurred with those who asked him to pitch camp at Kabartonjo and look after goats.

Now I know better

With the benefit of hindsight I can now give credence to the saying "you never know the value of something until you lose it". That I would even be mentioning Moi's name years after I angrily voted him out baffles me.

But I have made up my mind – I wont suffer in silence, I must speak up,

I must confess - I miss Moi.

I bet you really must be wondering why I would be so passionate about a man, who only a few years ago we all loved to hate.

First, he handed over power to NARC peacefully and without a fuss. Now I know that it takes a real man to lose honourably

Moi was always in the spotlight. Simply put he was all over the place. He went anywhere and everywhere, commenting on anything and everything. But, at least we were always sure of who was running the country. I woke up everyday knowing who was really in charge and went to bed every evening not doubting as to who exactly was steering the country forward.

It is now that am realizing that he did infact have a lean government. Back then I was blind to this fact and we kept on criticizing his cabinet of 26 as being too large. Now we are contemplating 44

There was no RIFTY VALLEY MAFIA then.

It is now that am realizing that Moi's government had no sacred cows. Apart from Moi himself nobody else was above the law. In 1991 even Moi's ally – THE TOTAL MAN was arrested and sent to jail. (akala mahindi na maharagwe mabichi). Just like a father , all children were equal – and any mistake was punishable.

It is said that "power corrupts and that absolute power corrupts absolutely". Moi had a firm grip on his family so that none got drunk with power, none of his family members went on the rampage slapping and terrorizing citizens. He also never referred to fellow citizens as 'mavi ya kuku' or as 'kubaff'.

Moi led for 24 years until we took peace for granted. There was no single month in which 1500 Kenyans lost their lives – we could only see this on TV. No wonder others mistook the recent tribulations for Rambo movies.

Moi was indeed a great man. A man whose word at least meant something. A man who kept and honoured promises and gentlemen's agreements. A good example is the IPPG deal when Moi assured the opposition that they would also get a chance to select ECK commissioners. Moi honoured this promise. Others have to be pinned down into signing binding documents so as to be compelled to keep their word – and even then they keep applying delay tactics.

During his reign, there was no single day when the heavily armed military was unleashed on rioting citizens armed with only stones and whips.

Its also now that am realizing that Moi was indeed the peoples president. He spent the better part of his time coming up with projects that benefited the common man eg the Jua Kali sector, HELB, the NYS etc. He even personally helped build gabions to fight mumomonyoko wa udongo. Kenya even attempted to make a car – the Nyayo Pioneer. But now we are bombarded with concepts which the common man cant comprehend eg the dialectics of the stock market, the lowering of importation tariffs etc etc

Moi was always campaigning – he never operated from an ivory tower. He always popularized himself in Kakamega, Kwale, Kacheliba, Westlands, Nyatike, Butula ete etc. KANU was baba na mama at all times. He never waited until an election was 2 months away so as to form a party. He knew that you cant stay mum for 4years 8months and the out of the bleus form a new party, campaign for 2 months and then win. He knew that 2 months of campaigning would never deliver statehouse – not in Kenya.

It is clear for everyone to see that the grand coalition will not work. It is also clear for all to see that Kibaki and Raila do not give a damn about Kenyans. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) will not be resettled in the near future. Kenyans will remain refugees in their own country in the Rift Valley for a long time.

As this happens, Raila will be seen to be very naive as he gets duped a fifth time.

He was duped in the 80s as he fought for the liberation of Kenya. He did not have a mandate from Kenyans to do this. He was under instructions from the one man whom he is still fighting for. Enough said.

Raila had his second round as he fought for the control of Ford Kenya party. He was trying to wrestle the mantle of leadership from Kijana Wamalwa. Pictures of him diving for cover at Thika National Stadium are vivid. He had to move out.

His third round was with the man he demonised since the 80s. Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi. It was the infamous KANU-NDP merger. He was angling for the mantle of leadership. It is documented history he was duped by the "professor of politics". He moved out.

He went to bed with Mwai Kibaki in 2002. They won the election. The 'gentleman' reneged on the famed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Raila and team fought him passionately for five years and Kibaki completed his 5-year term without a sweat. Along the way Raila had to move out. A fourth time.

In 2008, Raila is at it again. The man believes he won an election. He loves Kenya so much. Passionately so. To the point of becoming Kenya's newest kid on the block. Kenya's cry baby. The point is, Raila is about to be duped again. Musalia Mudavadi over the weekend said that Raila has made too many concessions. It was a message to Kibaki that Raila is going no further. Mudavadi is ODM's "gentleman".

Scratch the surface of Mudavadi's utterances.Actually, you will find that message was very much directed to Raila. Captain, you are about to be conned! A fifth time!

So much so that ODM cannot trust the man to have a private meeting with Kibaki. He cannot be trusted to cut a deal for ODM. He will give up too much.

Yesterday, it was Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Dalmas Otieno and Charity Ngilu who had to deliver ODM's message to Kibaki. Raila may give up further but ODM has reached an irreducible minimum. Raila was nowhere to be seen. The ODM captain could not do such a simple task. Lest he gives up the foreign affairs and local government and tourism and roads and transport and energy and cabinet affairs and the premiership.

Kibaki has indicated he wants to deal with Raila. He knows the captain's soft spot. To him, Raila is easy to con. Will it be a fifth time? Will he move out?

It is now 3pm in Kenya. The time that Kibaki and Raila had promised to announce the bloated 40 member cabinet. Kenya does not have a cabinet so far. Kibaki and Raila has been holed up at Harambee House since 1000HRS. Kibaki has left for lunch. He will be back at 4pm for further consultation. Or he may decide to pull a fast one and announce the cabinet from state house.

The PNU cabinet members are currently assembling at Harambee house. The pentagon members and several ODM MPs have also gone to Harambee House.

The current bone of contention revolves around local government, foreign affairs and energy ministries, among other weighty ministries.

The grand coalition may be on the edge; on the brink of collapse. ODM has said it will not concede further. Kenya may soon face the undetermined fate of collapse of the grand coalition. The National Accord and Reconciliation Act is silent on what happens when the coalition collapses. ODM insists that it should lead to a national election. PNU sympathizers say the collapse of the coalition does not mean the collapse of government. Therefore the status before the coalition will be automatically reinstated. Kibaki will continue running the government and remain as head of state.

UPDATE AT 5.45PM

Cabinet talks postponed until tomorrow, Monday 7th April, afternoon. Another Kenyan day wasted by Kibaki and Raila!!