Martha Wangari Karua wants to be the next president of Kenya. In fact she wants it so much so badly it hurts so many people, rather so many highly placed Kenyans. That is a good thing, ambition that is. It is within her constitutional, democratic and human rights to want to be President of Kenya. It is admirable and we should have more Kenyans come out strongly to contend for Kenya's leadership positions and not leave it to the select or pedigreed few.
Of late, my nerves screech whenever I see Martha Karua come on the idiot box, scuttling tables and being no nonsense about her presidential bid. It is like a part of me wants to see her be a strong contender despite the odds. That parts holds my guts nervously from spilling out whenever Martha talks of her dreams to be President. She doesn't disappoint. In most cases, a thousand votes scuttle in different directions at her mention of the word president. I have confirmed from Kimunya forbidden bar talk that this phenomenon is not unique to me.
The problem is not gender-based
Let me clear the air. Martha's non-presidentiality is not gender-based. While Kenya does not look ready for a woman president, Martha has surpassed this benchmark and would not be judged from this egoistic green goggles. She has earned her place in the echelons of high politics and shadowed Charity Ngilu the pioneer of women presidential candidates.
Camel through the eye of a needle chances
Actually, many Kenyans think Martha will not go far with her presidential bid. For additional drama sake, they are allowing Martha to go on with the showbiz and enjoy it as it does not last longer than five years. They will not mind her spicing up her acts and polishing up a few issues as I outline below. Who knows, she may aim for the sun and land on the moon or the empty nothingness that many a Kenya politician ends up in on the way to the top.
Arrogance and attitude
Foremost, whether perceived or real, Martha should hire a public relations expert to clean up her image as an arrogant and high-horse attitude politician. The Kenyan Wanjiku and Adhiambo still likes Java coffee dates on a Monday, Pizza on Tuesday at Nandos, Movies at the Junction on a Wednesday, Burgers at BurgerDome on a Thursday, Carnivore night out on a Friday, sweet-nothings on a Saturday night, cuddling on Sunday morning, flowers on Valentines, birthday, Christmas, Easter, Mothers day and every other day. A mix of angelic promises, American lies as well as hunter and gatherer jokes will do wonders. In addition image is everything in Kenya. Court and do not coerce.
Leave Kibaki alone
Martha should foremost leave Kibaki alone and should not make reference to him in her campaigns. Not that Kibaki is the best president ever but mainly because he is not central to her strategy and by bringing him in in her controversies, she makes Kibaki more relevant and strong enough to bring her down. In fact I submit that she need not fight for the non-dissolution of PNU parties. She should leave that to Musikari Kombo and the rest. The truth is PNU parties will not dissolve.
Narc Kenya should not be central to her strategy and she should not be keen to be affiliated at the moment. Fighting leadership battles in Narc Kenya is myopic and counter productive. As I show here below, Martha Karua should rebrand herself and sell a "Martha Karua" brand not Narc Kenya party. She should learn from the current professor of politics, Raila Amolo Odinga, PHD. Raila is a brand in himself who can afford to jump parties at will and still be relevant in Kenyan politics. She should not follow the Ruto script of fighting your tribal kingpin, Ruto was just too lucky with Moi, though he does not smile a lot nowadays. What with the Waki commission solely set up to document his skeletons, report later to be shelved and produced whenever the powers that be needs a little arm twisting?
Misdirected Venom
Martha Karua's non-presidentiality also has to do partly with her misdirected attacks. Martha's political nemesis do not include Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti. Although old school politics that works in Kenya requires a tribal base, Martha Karua will not earn the Kikuyu mass by fighting Uhuru Kenyatta or George Saitoti. In fact George Saitoti is a spent force and irrelevant for now. He would have been best when Kenya was looking for a compromise candidate but we have already gone beyond the tipping point, a point of no return. Further down, I will suggest how Martha Karua can best deal with the Uhuru threat.
Martha Karua earned her accolades while fighting Agwambo Raila Odinga. Unfortunately that is how she earned her 'man enough' triumphs. If she intends to remain relevant, she can only ride on 'fight Raila' stunts. Unfortunately again for her, Raila is not "fightable" at present. First she should not be seen to be friendly to Raila but should maintain her independence and remain non-confronting for now. If she befriends Raila in the eyes of the public, she should as well kiss her presidential bid goodbye.
Raila the best option for Martha Karua
Unfortunately again, Raila is the best ladder for Martha Karua to actualize her ambitions. Kibaki has given her the best he can, a ministerial portfolio, the rest of the work is for Raila to accomplish. But going by what I have said above, the only best way is for Martha to maintain her cool with the prime minister but adopt a 'fight Raila' show in public. As the presidential election nears, she should change tact and find a way of working with Raila. The bad side of it is that Raila is focussed on the presidency and has a lot of hangers-on on his back like Mudavadi, Ruto, Balala and Ngilu which leaves no room for Martha Karua to be prime minister or vice-president in a Raila government. The best Raila can do is give her what Kibaki denied her, a deputy premiership.
Change the constitution
The best way out for Martha to remain relevant and politically powerful is to change the constitution. This will also help her retain her 'fight Raila' tact and soften the masses' hearts on her arrogance and attitude. In this she should have the zeal of Michuki and Raila's tact and shrewdness. Whatever the first, second and third liberation failed to give Kenyans in terms of constitutional reform, Martha should agitate and use her Justice and Constitutional Affairs docket to actualize it. She should even go for an executive premiership which Raila is not keen to advocate of late (fight Raila). She should change tact and even push for the enactment of the Bomas draft.
Land Reforms
The land reforms embodied in the constitutional reform will deal with Uhuru Kenyatta once and for all, without bruising the egos of her Kikuyu counterparts and their attachment to their heir-in-waiting, Project One rendition.
Land redistribution will make the Kikuyu IDPs happy and the not-so-much-talked-about land grumbling in Central Kenya. From these drastic reforms, there is a possibility of a populist movement that can get majority seats in parliament and she can get the executive prime minister position or a better deal than deputy premiership. Through this she will energize reformists like James Orengo who will be too happy to get out of the Raila bandwagon. In the event that Raila embraces her radical reforms, she will have a better bargaining position than Mudavadi, Balala and Ngilu.
Talk to Mungiki, fight for Kenyan jobless youths
Politicians have forgotten the youth, again, until 2012. She should court the Kenya youth whose 80 percent population is jobless early enough. She should also engage Mungiki in dialogue and fight to bring the youth to the mainstream middle income earners range. This will be a sure winner and with youthful and charismatic faces like Mungatana, she could as well actualize in our lifetime. No politician will now be criminalised for talking to Mungiki and she should jump at this opportunity before Uhuru does in 2011.
Kalonzo Musyoka star on the decline
As emphasized above, Martha Karua should not waste her breath puffing away Kalonzo Musyoka and such like political opponents. I don't know which political-correct word to use but Kalonzo will easily self-destruct if he is not already in the path. Already, he is already showing signs of enjoying having things on a silver-platter, something even Uhuru who was born with a golden spoon in his mouth does not take lightly. It is a bad precedent that in Kenya, political power is secured by shedding of human blood, something Kibaki was warned against by his late father. It is not bound to be easy for Kalonzo Musyoka. So why should Martha Karua waste her time fighting Kalonzo.
My message to Karua is Woo Kenyans, Reform Kenya, Rebrand Karua lest you smash into smithereens in the political nothingness on the way to the sun.
Click here to learn more about Martha Wangari Karua
Martha Karua should revise her presidential strategies
Prof Mwangi Kimenyi and Prof Njuguna Ndung’u: Poll violence was predictable and could have been avoided
Poll violence was predictable and could have been avoided
In excerpts from their article Sporadic Ethnic Violence: Why has Kenya not experienced a full-blown civil war? (2004) Prof Mwangi Kimenyi and Prof Njuguna Ndung’u warn that the country still has many risk factors that can plunge it into civil war.
Many questions remain concerning the underlying causes of sporadic ethnic violence that has come to be associated with Kenyan elections since 1992.
Are the episodes of violence strategically instigated to influence voting patterns to capture the State machinery or are they a result of simmering long-standing grievances and divisions waiting to explode?
With the recent cycle of violence resulting in a large number of internally displaced people, there is urgency for Kenyans to ask the right questions concerning conflicts to come up with appropriate responses.
Some years ago, concerned by the conflicts that occurred during the 1990s, and fearing that such conflicts would recur, economists Njuguna Ndung'u (now Governor of the Central Bank) and Mwangi S. Kimenyi sought to provide answers to these questions.
Widespread chaos
In a study titled Sporadic ethnic violence: Why has Kenya not experienced a full-blown civil war? published by the World Bank in 2004, Prof Ndung'u and Prof Kimenyi observed that although the past episodes of conflict did not escalate to a full-blown civil war, a combination of contributory factors could potentially trigger widespread chaos as recently experienced.
They observed that a full-blown civil war could occur if a combination of factors resulted in what they refer to as a "tipping point". In their study, they sought to explain conflicts in Kenya following what is referred to as "the greed and grievance theory of civil war".
Greed motivates groups to rebel as they seek to control some lootable resources such as oil and diamonds as has been the case in Sudan, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Grievance triggers violence by marginalised populations such as those groups which claim to be historically discriminated against, or those in extreme poverty.
Watched anxiously
The authors investigated the causes of sporadic ethnic violence in Kenya with special emphasis on ethnicity, land and state capture in relation to the greed and grievance theory.
Using a wide range of data, they concluded that neither grievances due to land nor ethnic divisions explained the sporadic ethnic violence. Instead, the main trigger of the violence appears to have been controls of the State's instruments of power.
According to the scholars, politicians exploited ethnicity and land issues to distort voting strengths. Once the elections were concluded, violence subsided as there were no longer positive political returns to further violence.
For more than five agonising weeks early this year, the world watched anxiously as the situation in Kenya threatened to degenerate into a full-blown civil war. Thanks to sustained international intervention, a political settlement was reached when President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga signed a power-sharing agreement where they would work together in a coalition government.
And as we seek answers to what triggered the violence, other questions emerge: Was the post-election violence predictable and was violence planned in advance as some reports contend or was it spontaneous? Notwithstanding whether it was planned or not, was there a silver bullet that could have averted the violence or was the violence simply inevitable?
It appears that the scope of the clashes was totally unexpected just as there was no prior indication to the likelihood of controversy over the presidential poll results.
Nevertheless, a keen analysis of various scholarly writings published long before the violence erupted indicates that deep-rooted ethnic tensions and long-standing controversies over land ownership, especially in Rift Valley Province, had the potential to explode at the slightest provocation.
In their study, Prof Ndung'u and Prof Kimenyi highlighted the possibility of widespread conflict if some of the issues such as extreme poverty and politicisation of ethnicity were not attended to.
Paid attention
Probably, if we had paid attention to what our own scholars advised before the violence broke out, the country would perhaps not be struggling to raise Sh30 billion to resettle displaced people and reconstruct the lives of many others.
The professors observed that a civil war can be said to occur when a trigger factor, or a combination of factors, results in what may be referred to as a "tipping point" — when factions in a society engage in an all-out armed conflict.
But before that "tipping point" is reached, a country may be characterised by tensions, but not widespread conflict.
For many countries, the triggers for a civil war are not strong enough to result in a "tipping point"; hence such countries are characterised by relative peace although there may be tensions within the society among different factions.
Prof Ndung'u and Prof Kimenyi characterised Kenya as one of those countries where the "tipping point" had not been reached, but could be easily reached.
It suffices to note that many civil wars in Africa have two major characteristics. One is where one community with certain political aspirations feels alienated from the centre of power by a presumed dominant community monopolising power.
Left with few options, the marginalised community takes up arms against the presumed dominant community with the intention to take over power. Upon achieving power, the group then seeks to remedy the perceived sources of its marginalisation. But for this to be sustained, there has to be lootable resources to finance and make it easy to organise and coordinate a rebellion.
Such is the situation that has defined the civil wars in countries in the Great Lakes region especially the Hutu-Tusti conflicts in Rwanda and Burundi, and the Sudan conflict pitting the Islamised Arab North and the Christianised Black South.
The goal of such armed conflict is either a quest for regime change or a push for self-determination through the establishment of an independent homeland away from the perceived oppressor.
Civilian rule
The other character of civil war is where there has been a military dictatorship in power and so-called democratic forces take up arms to restore civilian rule.
But while Kenya is similar to other African countries in many aspects, the country has been marked by relative political stability and cohesion that have in many ways kept at bay the kind of tensions that result in a civil war.
The scholars observe that Kenya has neither been under military rule nor experienced any internal strife that could drive it to the "tipping point", hence the reason the country has not plunged into civil war.
In explaining the relative stability in Kenya, these scholars refer to the work of Prof Gordon Tullock, whose main contribution to the debate on civil war was on making a distinction between civil war and criminal violence.
Prof Tullock explains that the participation by an individual in civil war generates a public good while participation in crime generates a private good.
Hence the "public good" nature of civil wars explains why individuals are reluctant to engage in them.
Following Prof Tullock, Prof Ndung'u and Prof Kimenyi showed that the sporadic violence in Kenya was more criminal violence than civil war because those who perpetrated it were motivated by the selfish interest to pursue private good.
In a previous study published by the American Journal of Economics and Sociology in 1989, Prof Kimenyi suggested that ethnic skirmishes could easily result in civil war. He treated ethnic groups as "permanent interest groups" that compete in the market for wealth transfers and seek to maximise "group welfare" through the transfer of resources from other groups. The most efficient way to accomplish this is to control the instruments of wealth transfers, which in Kenya's case is the Government.
But in view of the latest poll-chaos, there are indications that a strong elite movement could easily emerge to forge a formidable rebel force that could in future plunge the country into civil war, especially one that coordinates the unemployed youths. This can easily occur as the State's monopoly on violence becomes diffused to organised gangs as happened recently.
Because of such possibility, the country's political leadership must put its act together and start addressing the underlying issues that sow discord among communities and push them to the "tipping point".
The article is published in Understanding Civil War (Vol. 1: Africa), edited by P. Collier and N. Sambanis, Washington DC: The World Bank, 2004.
Ministry of State for Defence Denies Kenya Military Media Allegations
OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT MINISTRY OF STATE FOR DEFENCE
Telegrams: "DEFENCE" Nairobi
Tel: + 254-020-2721100
Fax No.: +254-020-2725854
Defence Headquarters
Ulinzi House
P.O. Box 40668 Nairobi-00100
PRESS RELEASE
1.Attention of the Ministry of State for Defence has been drawn to reports in sections of the media regarding retirement and extensions of service of certain senior military officers. We wish therefore to clarify to the public that decision making in the military regarding military personnel is made through a set legal process of Boards which make recommendations to the appropriate levels including the Defence Council and ultimately to the Commander in Chief. This due process ensures collective and sober considerations of all factors before decisions are made. In the case of the last Defence Council, this process, as in the past was followed to the letter. Extension of service for senior officers, including Major Generals Opiyo and Mutwii, were considered and outcomes communicated. The current media hype on this matter is therefore merely speculative.
2. The post of Commandant AFTC Lanet was rightsized from Major General to Brigadier after decentralisation developments made the rank of Major General professionally untenable. This is to be expected in a dynamic institution like the military. It also happened to several other posts and affected other officers as well. There being no other vacant post for re-deploying Major General Okanga, he was retired from the military and re-assigned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The law allows for this and it has happened many times in the past. Brigadier Haji was moved to the post of Commandant, Kenya Military Academy (formerly AFTC Lanet) on normal transfer.
3. Regarding the operations in Mt Elgon, the military has time and again appealed to the public to formerly and empirically report any case(s) of torture to enable us investigate and take appropriate action. To date we have not received any such report other than unauthenticated utterances. We have not and will not condone torture and our soldiers are well schooled and experienced in the application of the law of Armed conflict in and outside Kenya.
4. We respect the central role of the media in Kenya's democratization process, however, we expect the media to recognize the role of other institutions in the same process. It is therefore fitting to appeal to the media to avoid stirring negative emotions through speculative reporting on military matters.
Tom Mshindi: Deft and forceful moves raise the bar for Government
Even with the fixation on succession and the 2012 presidential politics, it is possible that Kenya’s unique political marriage – eagerly being watched and perhaps to be copied by unhappy Zimbabwe – may yield substantive gains for the country.
But it will require more than just the welcome attention being paid to important issues; more focus, vigilance, staying power and in some instances, shifts in priorities.
An absolute plus is earned, for instance, from the attention finally being given to the issue of illegal resettlement of people in the Mau Forest.
Worthy minds like Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai have argued the case for restoration of the priceless eco-investment on the premise of its absolute centrality to the existence of treasures like Lake Nakuru and many rivers that serve millions.
Alarm over the forest’s destruction was raised way back in the 1980s, but President Moi’s priorities then placed the environment way down the pecking order.
The Mau dilemma was a support-for-land deal in which people with homes got extra land. There is debate about how many of these are true squatters and whether they deserve compensation. National Heritage minister William ole Ntimama is right when he says that those are masquerades that deserve no compensation.
The Government must stick to its eviction deadline and ignore the petulant and hypocritical noises being made by MPs that should know better.
This selfish posturing over a profoundly important national and international resource is vain and these leaders should exercise their calling and urge those among their communities who may be affected to understand the gravity of the problem they are creating through their continued destruction of the forest.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga, after establishing the committee to advise on the best way of handling the Mau issue, headed a strong delegation to London and argued a trenchant case for foreign direct investment into Kenya.
He prosecuted his case well, though the jury is still out and the verdict may take a while. But the crowds came and listened. The right people in and outside government met him and the message was received.
Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta linked up with the delegation and squeezed in some time to make a vigorous defence of the Government on BBC’s Hard Talk, on issues like corruption, land policy, the MPs’ pay and law reforms.
Mr Kenyatta actually came through as believable except for the mismatch Kenyans will see between his statements and the reality.
That notwithstanding, it was a coordinated, multi-pronged attack-and-defend performance that has been woefully lacking in the Government’s past execution of its duties and responsibilities.
But as I watched, I did wonder: why take this assault to an important but distant and estranged friend while a lot of what Kenya needs to hasten its growth pace is available within the country and the region?
A significant portion of the immediate resources needed to kick off the Vision 2030 objectives are available within this country.
The Safaricom IPO proved that what is lacking is not the cash but imaginative and persuasive national projects that can extract money from whichever nooks and crannies Kenyans and East Africans have stashed it.
Can we see the Government demonstrate consistently the kind of zeal it showed last week in the UK by setting up time-bound, single-objective committees to tackle, for instance, infrastructure, the environment and tourism?
As Rwanda has demonstrated in the ICT sector (and in tourism too), success lies in making countries and regions competitive, focusing on clusters around which mini-economies that are integrated can be created.
Kenya’s floriculture industry is a good example of a garden-to-market cluster, though even it requires huge support to fully mature and pay dividends.
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan and eastern DRC depend on Kenya for between 50 to 80 per cent of the products they need. Infrastructure that links them is the single largest drawback to business competitiveness, and the railway stands out as the key culprit.
Investment from the UK will not build the railway – development finances that exist in plenty will.
If the energy being demonstrated to woo FDI here can be harnessed to focus on local and regional priorities, Kenyans might be indulgent enough to excuse the otherwise disconcerting songs-and-dance passing for political party infighting.
They will be dismissed as amusing sideshows.
Charles Onyango Obbo: Why the Kibaki-Raila dog will be a good hunter
Ever since Kenya's grand coalition Government was forged over 100 days ago from the ashes of the post-December election violence, it has been hard to find anyone outside the ministers in it and the American, British and German envoys who thinks it will last up to 2012.
President Kibaki, a man who is not famous for being talkative, is upbeat about the coalition whenever he speaks. ODM leader and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has been notably voluble about the Government’s prospects.
At various interviews in his hectic international schedule, he has sold the grand coalition as “the solution” to Africa’s tribal-riven politics.
I will not bet the house on the survival of the grand coalition (I am not deluded), but I am willing to put my shirt on it limping on to 2012.
For starters, because there are internal political battles to fight (witness Narc-K shaking the PNU tree), and there is an election in under five years in which the incumbent is not standing, no one in the coalition has time to spare to work on breaking it up.
Many factors will determine the future of the coalition, but at the level of personalities, President Kibaki and Premier Odinga hold the key to its survival.
To start with President Kibaki, it is remarkable seeing ministers, including junior ones, and minor party officials ticking him off about his attempt to consolidate PNU and, allegedly, to “impose” a successor.
Going by this, commentators and critics have written the President off as damaged goods, your typical lame-duck president in his last term of office.
If that is true, then it also means that President Kibaki isn’t powerful enough to wreck the coalition.
Secondly, if he is losing grip, then the success of the coalition is the main thing he has to hold on as his legacy. My own sense is that all he has to do to secure his legacy is to sleep throughout the next four years, leaving things as they are.
Mr Odinga, on the other hand, has even less reason to tear up the grand coalition.
During the campaigns it became clear that there was quite some unease in parts of Kenya as to whether he could be “trusted”, and whether he was still a “dangerous” radical and glass-breaker.
In the last three months, he has done a lot to soften his image and look presidential. He positions himself as the great team-player, and is robust in his defence of Mr Kibaki, a fact which should place him in good standing with some of the President’s staunch supporters.
But perhaps the greater discovery has been his appeal abroad.
His record of democratic struggle, and folksy political style – speeches full of proverbs and stories about rain-soaked lions being mistaken for cats, football tales and chants on stage, and the urban underclass’s fascination with grandeur (the Hummer) – looked unsuited to a sophisticated international stage.
But Raila soon realised that African leaders tend to form a club of villains to defend their corrupt and cruel ways, and to blame all their problems on Western conspiracies.
He broke ranks, and in the case of Zimbabwe, became the first African (indeed world) leader to use the word “shame” and “election thief” to describe Robert Mugabe’s action. With that, he not only stood apart, he became the darling of the international press.
However, by softening his image, Mr Odinga has alienated the radical constituencies in ODM, and these will probably peel off from the movement by 2012.
He probably calculates that he needs to be nice to Mr Kibaki to pick up new support that will compensate for that loss.
So, there is the deal: Raila treats Mr Kibaki respectfully, and continues to cultivate a moderate image, then he will be extremely competitive in 2012.
Mr Kibaki doesn’t need to endorse him, of course. All he has to do is not to oppose him. Then he can make his pick for successor from PNU ranks.
That way, if Mr Odinga wins, he will be grateful that President Kibaki didn’t undermine him.
If Mr Kibaki’s chosen successor wins, the victor will forever be thankful to the old man for anointing him. Either way, Mr Kibaki wins. All this bodes well for the coalition.
The other legitimate argument that has been made against the coalition is that it is “an arranged marriage”. That is slightly inaccurate, because Kenya didn’t have a choice if it wanted to remain one country and to stop the slaughter.
But do all arranged marriages fail? There is a view that arranged marriages last longer than those born of love. Expectations are very low, or sometimes non-existent, so disappointment levels tend to be low too.
Of more interest is whether anyone really ever marries for love.
Usually, we are either trying to beat the biological clock; want to end our loneliness; we finally got a job and can afford to raise a family; or just feel the pressure from friends and family to get hitched; or think we have finally found the “right seed” to father or mother our children.
Kwendo Opanga: Kenyans, fasten your seat
We went to the polls seven months ago today and voted ourselves four months of political madness and mayhem. Now we must fasten our seatbelts and go through the turbulence of a four-year-long election campaign.
That is what should concern us when Party of National Unity (PNU) stalwarts Justice minister Martha Karua and assistant minister Danson Mungatana declare interest in the presidency and premiership come 2012.
It is this that should interest us when President Kibaki, he who has made silence, composure and mysteriousness his trademarks, pitches for the dissolution of PNU affiliate parties and the emergence of a single party.
We should be alarmed that only seven months ago politicians and parties who were spelling out their visions for the next five years are now embarking on another campaign before delivering on a single plank of their election platforms.
Why? Because this way it will be a long time before the Kenyan ship of state and the politics settle. One of the reasons why the ship of state will not settle soon is the politics. And the reason the politics will not settle soon is politics.
Marriage of convenience
The politics will not settle soon because our so-called grand coalition is not even a marriage of convenience; it is a forced marriage. Everything in it may have to be forced through or fought over.
Secondly, coalitions — grand or humble — are fragile or even frigid affairs. When politicians and the politics of a governing coalition are unsettled, the turbulence unleashed shakes government, sullies relationships, soils decision-making and decisions made and slows down business.
Notice that some politicians have already convinced themselves that the hour of reckoning will come before 2012 when government will be faced with a crucial vote in the House.
One of the partners could vote to bring it down. But given that such a move could take Kenya back to January or turn a polls-weary electorate against them, they should be prepared to tolerate each other for as long as possible. That, however, is easier declared than delivered.
It is why the leader of a coalition government needs to be a juggler of party balls, a reader of the minds and thoughts of friends and foes alike, and a magician who always has a survival rabbit hidden in her kit of tricks.
This leader must keep coalition partners happy and forever tries to ensure she has enough numbers to see off a no-confidence vote. They just returned controversial media magnate Silvio Berlusconi to power in Italy after the ruling coalition collapsed.
Last week in India, the government survived a no-confidence vote by a paper thin majority.
President Kibaki faced a torrid and horrid time in the first two years of his first term at the hands of a rebellious Liberal Democratic Party, which he short-changed as he constructed his 2003 Cabinet and ignored a pre-poll seat-sharing and power pact.
The President only managed to stem paralysis in government by kicking out LDP Members of Parliament from the Cabinet and bringing in non-National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) MPs to shore up his support.
Now in his second and final term, the President is in party political terms a lame duck. But, clearly interested in serving a full five-year term and in his succession, he is trying belatedly to form a political party.
The result, as was the case in 2003 when he attempted to dissolve the parties that formed Narc, is open revolt in the ranks of the disparate parties that form the corporation that is PNU.
The difference is that the President’s allies fear that as attention focuses on the next General Election, the rival yet coalition partner Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains a single entity.
The PNU parties have their own grouses and axes to grind regarding the way Cabinet posts were shared out and, even more important, they are independently positioning themselves for the 2012 General Election.
These parties know that the President will have no role in their fate in 2012. They do not need him and see no reason to listen or defer to him.
It is why the tough as nails Karua is adamant Narc Kenya will not dissolve itself and remains her vehicle to State House in 2012.
President Kibaki will have to keep these parties happy and keep looking over his shoulders to ensure that Prime Minister Raila Odinga does not lead ODM out of the coalition.
He will also be hoping that the kind of scandalous revelations and parliamentary pressure that saw his trusted ally Amos Kimunya eat humble pie and quit the plum post of Finance minister will not recur.
PNU strategists worry that ODM, or to be precise Raila’s inner circle, could be plotting to bring down, or shatter the reputations of, their key rivals the way Lands minister James Orengo went for Kimunya’s jugular.
If this school of thought is to be believed then the ODM idea would be to identify the big beasts of the PNU jungle and hunt and gun them down one by one. That way come 2012 Raila would be left in the ring with a crowd of minnows.
But Raila’s advisers would be fooling themselves if they imagined that the big beasts of the ODM jungle would not want to take on Raila or make life difficult for him.
Already, there is discontent in ODM, with some Rift Valley MPs accusing Raila of sidelining them when choosing ODM’s slate of ministers and for decreeing that their people vacate or be evacuated from the Mau forest.
A nightmare scenario for ODM would be a raid from Trade Minister Uhuru Kenyatta or Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka or both that would see Agriculture Minister William Ruto team up with either man or both in a rival coalition or party.
Two governments
Do not be deceived that intense competition on the political front does not affect the running of government. It does. In fact, intense competition is euphemism for fierce rivalry. This is what Mr Gitobu Imanyara means when he says Kenya has two governments.
Inevitably this kind of rivalry leads to some ministers attempting to block their colleagues from pushing through their agenda and there are indeed ministers who loathe the idea of the PM overseeing what they do.
Is there a way out of this reckless ruckus in government? It is for the President and Prime Minister to rein in their troops and insist that while they can collide on issues and collude to smear each other, connive and conspire against each other’s policy plans, they must stick together for the remaining four and half years.
Kenyans want the pledges and promises made on the campaign stumps last December fulfilled. They want the pledges and promises made by President Kibaki and the PM in their power-sharing pact honoured.
If not, good people, fasten your seat belts for a marathon roller coaster ride.
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Folks, my long and continuing journey as a columnist began right here in 1990. I left for distant lands eight years later and I have since seen and heard and done plenty.
I return because I want to age wisely here at home. Thanks for your warm welcome. I still love controversy.
Charles Onyango Obbo: Let ‘unteachable’ children go home and grow yams
A FEW YEARS AGO, WE WERE all gathered in our parents’ countryside home for the end of year holidays, and one day a heated argument broke out about the quality of education.
As a general agreement seemed to be emerging that education had gone to the dogs, our old woman, who had said nothing, got up, and as she walked to her kitchen, said: “You people are making too much of this education issue. Just let the children go and grow up in school.”
I had never thought of school as a place which, if it didn’t offer a meaningful education, was nevertheless a good one for rural children to go to and while away the time as they wait to become minor village officials, join the army, or become chicken thieves if all else failed.
In other words, the role of school had changed, and society needed to adjust its attitudes and expectations accordingly.
I was reminded of this question in the face of the recent spate of strikes in Kenya in which several schools have been torched, with a student being burnt to death in one.
The country is angry and shocked at the tools of sin – cocaine, bhang, alcohol, and “weapons” like petrol – that have been unearthed in searches at the troubled schools.
The Government has responded appropriately, banning mobile phones, TVs and DVDs from schools. Yet one can’t feel that we are all missing the big picture. It is criminal to burn property, and even more so, to kill someone with the fire. However, the schools’ crisis and burning of buildings is not uniquely Kenyan.
In the last year or so, 25 schools have been burnt in Uganda. Dozens of students have died in the fires. A few of the schools were burnt by rogue students, but most by other miscreants.
The tragedy of the fires aside, you might say that the arsonists are devils carrying messages that are well worth listening to.
In Britain, though you don’t have violent strikes and arson, the debate about education is even more furious.
Recently, Chris Parry, the controversial chief executive of the Independent Schools Council, an organisation that represents half of the 2,500 private schools in the UK, caused quite a storm when he told The Guardian that the reason state schools were in a crisis was because they were struggling with “unteachable” children, ignorant parents, staff who don’t want to be there, and a shortage of leadership.
His remarks, though slated as “snobbish and ill-informed”, deserve attention in East Africa. Parry said even private schools, which did better, needed to be more up-to-date and to face future challenges.
In this future, he said, computers will increasingly replace teachers.
HE PREDICTED THAT GREY DOG-eared textbooks will soon be out, and pupils will learn via Wikipedia-type programmes in class. The role of the teacher will be to help them apply the facts they build from the Internet.
Parry’s most interesting idea is his most controversial; that some students are simply “unteachable”.
In an age of political correctness where we believe every child is entitled to an education, and has in him (or her) to become an Albert Einstein, to say some people are “unteachable” sounds grotesque.
But on second thoughts, it makes sense. Children who find school too boring, think the teachers idiotic or oppressive, and lose their minds due to fear of exams, should not be forced by parents and pressured by society to go to school.
They should be directed to schools where children go to “grow up” until they move on to become footballers, or fellows who throw stones at anti-riot police during demonstrations.
No doubt, all this is easier to say if your child is settled in a nice school and doing well in class.
In the same UK, some universities think lower education is such a shambles, and national tests have become so hopeless, that they are introducing their own entrance examinations.
Imperial College in London, Oxford and Cambridge, are among the universities that have introduced their own entrance exams for certain degree courses.
It’s what these universities are looking for that should be of more interest to us: Intelligence, yes, but also creativity, innovation, and problem-solving skills rather than subject knowledge.
Sir Richard Sykes, Rector of Imperial College, told The Times that they will be looking for factors that “are not too dependent on rote-learning” – as most education in Africa is.
Indeed, I recently read that for the Maths skills the new world needs, it’s probably more useful to be accomplished in solving Sudoku puzzles than spending years in class cracking Geometry and Algebra.
People like Parry would argue that instead of taking away mobile phones and TV sets from schools, the best policy would be to allow more of them and greater access to the Internet.