Kenya is a happy nation. Kibaki and Raila have finally agreed on the cabinet. The size, composition and the names have been agreed on. Expectations are high that the cabinet will be named today, Sunday the 13th. Oops! Did I just say 13th? Maybe that is the fate of Kibaki and Raila's government.
BUT Kenya's politics are a zero-sum game. Let no-one fool you. It is always a win-lose situation. Winner takes it all. No provision for a win-win. In the naming of the cabinet, it is no different. It is either a loss for Raila or a win for Kibaki. It cannot be a loss for Kibaki and a win for Raila. The interesting tidbit is Kibaki cannot lose and Raila cannot win.
FOR EXAMPLE, if it is a 20 member cabinet. It is a win for Kibaki. Raila's minimum was 34. If it is a 40 member cabinet, Kibaki wins. More cabinet posts solidifies the PNU coalition. Still, a 20 member cabinet cannot mean a weak PNU coalition, because PNU has won over ODM. A 20 member cabinet will be a plus to Kibaki, locally and internationally.
MUSALIA MUDAVADI yesterday hinted at ODM backing down on appointment of civil servants, permanent secretaries and Kenya high commissioners. ODM just want to be consulted. This is a tone lower from the Balala tantrums that indicated that Kibaki had no choice but to go ODM way.
ODM failed to bring Koffi Annan back to assist in cabinet negotiations. There is a limit to which the Annans, Browns, Condis, Frazers, Milibands, Woods, Hynes', Rannebergers of this world can go to. This much, no further. They should be headed south by now. Grandpa Bob needs a thrashing. Unfortunately they do not have the guts and the balls to do so.
After throwing fists to the air, Raila had no choice but to go to the heartland of Mt Kenya Mafia to strike a deal. Between Raila and Kibaki, face to face, Kibaki has stunned his critics by emerging a better negotiator.
IF THE ACCORD does not work, Raila has more to lose. Kibaki has nothing to lose. It is highly unlikely that ODM use of violence will be as successful as it was in January. This time the PNU government has taken its time to fill the violent-prone Rift valley with military personnel in the naming of cracking down on Mt Elgon clashes.
Kibaki has not shown emotion on the Kikuyu refugees in IDP camps in the Rift. It is not likely that an attack on the Kikuyu will make Kibaki back down. The man does not care about the Kenyan peasants, refugees or squatters. He cares more about his tribe - the mobitelea tribe. Ask John Githongo.
Regarding violence, the Kikuyus are also more than prepared next time. We have also witnessed two pass-out parade in GSU and AP camps in Embakasi in less than a month. National Youth Service graduates are on the way to join the disciplined forces.
The sad bit in all this is that Raila has to be content to play second fiddle, at times third. BUT with a huge chunk of the infrastructural ministries, Raila's star will shine again. When committed and focussed, the man can move mountains. He can cut a Mugumo tree with a razor in less than 100 years, five years to be precise.
I think I am dreaming.
Kibaki names his cabinet today!
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